The Persistence of Capital Account Crises / Mauro Mecagni, Ruben Atoyan, David Hofman.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Mecagni, Mauro.

Contributor:

Atoyan, Ruben.

Hofman, David.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2009/103

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Capital movements.

Financial crises.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (29 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2009.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

This study contributes to the literature on capital account crises in two ways. First, our analysis of crisis episodes between 1994 and 2002 establishes a clear relationship between the persistence of crises, their complexity, and the intensity of movement of key macroeconomic variables. Second, we provide a systematic examination of the determinants of crisis duration. Our econometric analysis suggests that initial conditions and the external environment plays a key role in determining crisis persistence. The policy response also matters, but cannot offset a record of poor past policies. Overall, the results underscore the critical importance of crisis prevention efforts.

Contents:

Contents; I. Introduction; II. Conceptual Framework and Methodology; A. Crisis Persistence, Complexity, and Macroeconomic Effects; Figures; 1. Average Duration and Crisis Complexity; Tables; 1. Duration and Nature of Crises; 2. Crisis Complexity, Duration, and Macroeconomic Costs; B. Determinants of the Duration of Crises; 3. Post-Crisis Vulnerabilities; C. Econometric Methodology; III. Persistence of Capital Account Crises; A. Estimation Results and Robustness Tests; 2. Estimation Results for the Capital Account Crises Duration Model; Boxes; 1. Some Further Diagnostic Results

B. Counterfactual Experiments 3. Descriptive Statistics for the Model Variables; 4. Predicted Probabilities of Staying in Crisis under Different Scenarios; 5. Increase in Predicted Probability of Exit from Crisis under Various Scenarios; 6. Reduction in Predicted Crisis Duration under Various Scenarios; IV. Conclusions; Appendices; 1. Measuring the Duration of Capital Account Crises; 2. A Model for the Duration of Capital Account Crises; References

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Includes bibliographical references.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9786612843181

9781462393107

1462393101

9781452713748

145271374X

9781451872507

145187250X

9781282843189

1282843184

OCLC:

645458446