Dissecting Saving Dynamics : Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects / Christopher Carroll, Martin Sommer, Jiri Slacalek.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Carroll, Christopher.

Contributor:

Slacalek, Jiri.

Sommer, Martin.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2012/219

IMF working paper ; WP/12/219

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Saving and investment.

Wealth.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (48 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target wealth determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the saving rate’s long-term decline, while fluctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.

Contents:

Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Personal Saving Rate in 2007-2011 and Previous Recessions; II. Theory: Target Wealth and Credit Conditions; 2. Consumption Function (Stable Arm of Phase Diagram); 3. A Wealth Shock; 4. Relaxation of a Natural Borrowing Constraint from 0 to h; 5. Dynamics of the Saving Rate after an Increase in Unemployment Risk; III. Data and Measurement Issues; 6. Net Worth-Disposable Income Ratio; 7. The Credit Easing Accumulated (CEA) Index; 8. Unemployment Risk E[sub(t)]u[sub(t+4)] and Unemployment Rate (Percent); IV. Reduced-Form Saving Regressions

A. Baseline Estimates 9. The Fit of the Baseline Model and the Time Trend-Actual and Fitted PSR (Percent of Disposable Income); B. Robustness Checks; 10. The Fit of the Baseline Model and the Model with Full Controls (of Table 2)-Actual and Fitted PSR (Percent of Disposable Income); C. Sub-Sample Stability; D. Saving Rate Decompositions; V. Structural Estimation; A. Estimation Procedure; B. Results; 11. Extent of Credit Constraints mt (Fraction of Quarterly Disposable Income); 12. Per Quarter Permanent Unemployment Risk Ω[sub(t)]

13. Fit of the Structural Model-Actual and Fitted PSR (Percent of Disposable Income)14. Decomposition of Fitted PSR (Percent of Disposable Income); VI. Conclusions; 15. Alternative Measures of Credit Availability; 16. Growth of Real Disposable Income (Percent); 17. Personal Saving Rate (Percent of Disposable Income); Tables; 1. Preliminary Saving Regressions and the Time Trend; 2. Additional Saving Regressions I.-Robustness to Explanatory Variables; 3. Additional Saving Regressions II.-Sub-sample Stability; 4. Personal Saving Rate-Actual and Explained Change, 2007-2010

5. Calibration and Structural Estimates6. Preliminary Saving Regressions and the Time Trend-Saving Rate Generated by the Structural Model; 7. Univariate Properties of Disposable Income and Personal Saving Rate; 8. Campbell (1987) Saving for a Rainy Day Regressions; References

Notes:

"September 2012."

Includes bibliographical references.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9781475579260

1475579268

9781475513660

1475513666

OCLC:

870245044