Business cycles : theory, history, indicators, and forecasting / Victor Zarnowitz.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Zarnowitz, Victor, 1919-2009.

Series:

Studies in business cycles ; no. 27.

Studies in business cycles ; v. 27

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Business cycles.

Economic forecasting.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (614 p.)

Edition:

Pbk. ed.

Place of Publication:

Chicago : University of Chicago Press, 1996, c1992.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.

Contents:

Front matter

National Bureau of Economic Research

Relation of the Directors to the Work and Publications of the National Bureau of Economic Research

Contents

Acknowledgments

Preface

I. THEORIES AND EVIDENCE

1. Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview

2. Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective

3. Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U.S. Economic Fluctuations

4. Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements

5. Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau

II. HISTORY AND MEASUREMENT

6. How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction

7. Business Cycles and Growth

8. The Regularity of Business Cycles

9. Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy

III. INDICATORS

10. Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses

11. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators

12. Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes

IV. FORECASTING

13. On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions

14. An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts

15. The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts

16. Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts

17. Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction

18. The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting

References

Author Index

Subject Index

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Includes bibliographical references and indexes.

ISBN:

9786611126162

9781281126160

1281126160

9780226978925

0226978923

OCLC:

648335512