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The science of conjecture : evidence and probability before Pascal / with a new preface James Franklin.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Franklin, James, author of introduction, etc.
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Probabilities--History.
- Probabilities.
- Evidence--History.
- Evidence.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (520 pages)
- Edition:
- 1st ed.
- Place of Publication:
- Baltimore, Maryland : Johns Hopkins University Press, 2015.
- Summary:
- The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human understanding of risk.
- Contents:
- Cover
- Contents
- Preface to the 2015 Edition
- Preface
- 1. The Ancient Law of Proof
- Egypt and Mesopotamia
- The Talmud
- Roman Law: Proof and Presumptions
- Indian Law
- 2. The Medieval Law of Evidence: Suspicion, Half-proof, and Inquisition
- Dark Age Ordeals
- The Gregorian Revolution
- The Glossators Invent Half-proof
- Presumptions in Canon Law
- Grades of Evidence and Torture
- The Postglossators Bartolus and Baldus: The Completed Theory
- The Inquisition
- Law in the East
- 3. Renaissance Law
- Henry VIII Presumed Wed
- Tudor Treason Trials
- Continental Law: The Treatises on Presumptions
- The Witch Inquisitors
- English Legal Theory and the Reasonable Man
- 4. The Doubting Conscience and Moral Certainty
- Penance and Doubts
- The Doctrine of Probabilism
- Suarez: Negative and Positive Doubt
- Grotius, Silhon, and the Morality of the State
- Hobbes and the Risk of Attack
- The Scandal of Laxism
- English Casuists Pursue the Middle Way
- Juan Caramuel Lobkowitz, Prince of Laxists
- Pascal's Provincial Letters
- 5. Rhetoric, Logic, Theory
- The Greek Vocabulary of Probability
- The Sophists Sell the Art of Persuasion
- Aristotle's Rhetoric and Logic
- The Rhetoric to Alexander
- Roman Rhetoric: Cicero and Quintilian
- Islamic Logic
- The Scholastic Dialectical Syllogism
- Probability in Ordinary Language
- Humanist Rhetoric
- Late Scholastic Logics
- 6. Hard Science
- Observation and Theory
- Aristotle's Not-by-Chance Argument
- Averaging of Observations in Greek Astronomy
- The Simplicity of Theories
- Nicole Oresme on Relative Frequency
- Copernicus
- Kepler Harmonizes Observations
- Galileo on the Probability of the Copernican Hypothesis
- 7. Soft Science and History
- The Physiognomics
- Divination and Astrology
- The Empiric School of Medicine on Drug Testing.
- The Talmud and Maimonides on Majorities
- Vernacular Averaging and Quality Control
- Experimentation in Biology
- The Authority of Histories
- The Authenticity of Documents
- Valla and the Donation of Constantine
- Cano on the Signs of True Histories
- 8. Philosophy: Action and Induction
- Carneades's Mitigated Skepticism
- The Epicureans on Inference from Signs
- Inductive Skepticism and Avicenna's Reply
- Aquinas on Tendencies
- Scotus and Ockham on Induction
- Nicholas of Autrecourt
- The Decline of the West
- Bacon and Descartes: Certainty? or Moral Certainty?
- The Jesuits and Hobbes on Induction
- Pascal's Deductivist Philosophy of Science
- 9. Religion: Laws of God, Laws of Nature
- The Argument from Design
- The Church Fathers
- Inductive Skepticism by Revelation
- John of Salisbury
- Maimonides on Creation
- Are Laws of Nature Necessary?
- The Reasonableness of Christianity
- Pascal's Wager
- 10. Aleatory Contracts: Insurance, Annuities, and Bets
- The Price of Peril
- Doubtful Claims in Jewish Law
- Olivi on Usury and Future Profits
- Pricing Life Annuities
- Speculation in Public Debt
- Insurance Rates
- Renaissance Bets and Speculation
- Lots and Lotteries
- Commerce and the Casuists
- 11. Dice
- Games of Chance in Antiquity
- The Medieval Manuscript on the Interrupted Game
- Cardano
- Gamblers and Casuists
- Galileo's Fragment
- De Méré and Roberval
- The Fermat-Pascal Correspondence
- Huygens' Reckoning in Games of Chance
- Caramuel
- 12. Conclusion
- Subsymbolic Probability and the Transition to Symbols
- Kinds of Probability and the Stages in Discovering Them
- Why Not Earlier?
- Two Parallel Histories
- The Genius of the Scholastics and the Orbit of Aristotle
- The Place of Law in the History of Ideas
- Conclusion and Moral
- Epilogue: The Survival of Unquantified Probability.
- The Port-Royal Logic
- Leibniz's Logic of Probability
- To the Present
- Appendix: Review of Work on Probability before 1660
- Notes
- Index
- A
- B
- C
- D
- E
- F
- G
- H
- I
- J
- K
- L
- M
- N
- O
- P
- Q
- R
- S
- T
- U
- V
- W
- X.
- Notes:
- Description based on print version record.
- Includes index.
- OCLC:
- 912325548
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