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Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt : A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey / Evan Tanner, Issouf Samaké.
- Format:
- Book
- Government document
- Author/Creator:
- Tanner, Evan.
- Series:
- IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2006/295
- IMF Working Papers
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Debts, Public--Brazil--Econometric models.
- Debts, Public.
- Debts, Public--Mexico--Econometric models.
- Debts, Public--Turkey--Econometric models.
- Fiscal policy--Brazil--Econometric models.
- Fiscal policy.
- Fiscal policy--Mexico--Econometric models.
- Fiscal policy--Turkey--Econometric models.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (44 p.)
- Edition:
- 1st ed.
- Place of Publication:
- Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2006.
- Language Note:
- English
- Summary:
- This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.
- Contents:
- ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY: SOME PREVIOUS WORK""; ""III. OVERVIEW OF OUR METHODOLOGY""; ""IV. BRAZIL, 2000�05""; ""V. MEXICO""; ""VI. TURKEY""; ""VII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS""; ""APPENDIX ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY AND ESTIMATES""; ""REFERENCES""
- Notes:
- "December 2006."
- Includes bibliographical references (p. 39-42).
- Description based on print version record.
- ISBN:
- 9786613829177
- 9781462349791
- 146234979X
- 9781452705736
- 1452705739
- 9781283516723
- 1283516721
- 9781451910087
- 1451910088
- OCLC:
- 568151148
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