Climate change : identification and projections / Philippe De Larminat.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Larminat, Philippe de, author.

Series:

Focus series in ecological science.

Focus series (London, England)

Focus ecological science series

Focus series, 2051-2481

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Climatic changes.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (142 p.) : ill. ; 4 cm

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Hoboken, New Jersey : ISTE Ltd/John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2014.

Summary:

Under certain scenarios on the subject of CO2 emissions, by the end of the century the atmospheric concentration could triple its pre-industrial level. The very large numerical models intended to anticipate the corresponding climate evolutions are designed and quantified from the laws of physics. However, little is generally known about these: genesis of clouds, terms of the greenhouse effect, solar activity intervention, etc. This book deals with the issue of climate modeling in a different way: using proven techniques for identifying black box-type models. Taking climate observations from throughout the millennia, the global models obtained are validated statistically and confirmed by the resulting simulations. This book thus brings constructive elements that can be reproduced by anyone adept at numerical simulation, whether an expert climatologist or not. It is accessible to any reader interested in the issues of climate change.

Contents:

Cover

Title Page

Copyright

Contents

1: Introduction

1.1. Context

1.2. Identification

1.3. Expectations and results

1.4. Contents of the work

2: Climatic Data

2.1. Sources

2.2. Global temperature

2.2.1. Modern temperatures

2.2.2. Pre-industrial temperature

2.2.3. Paleotemperatures

2.3. Concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere

2.4. Solar activity

2.5. Volcanic activity

3: The War of the Graphs

3.1. History

3.2. Inconsistent controversies

3.3. Usable data

4: Formulating an Energy Balance Model

4.1. State models and transmittance

4.2. Structure of an energy balance model

4.3. Specificity of EBMs

4.4. Dynamic parametrization

5: Presumed Parameters

5.1. Terminology

5.2. Climate sensitivity Sclim

5.3. Coefficient of radiative forcing α1

5.4. The climate feedback coefficient λG

5.5. Sensitivity to irradiance S2

5.6. Sensitivity to volcanic activity S3

5.7. Climate or anthropogenic sensitivity

5.8. Review of uncertainties

6: Identification Method

6.1. The current state of affairs

6.2. Output error method

6.3. Estimating the error variance

6.4. Hypothesis test and confidence regions

6.5. Conditions of application

7: Partial Results

7.1. A selection of data

7.2. Free identification

7.3. Forced identifications

7.4. Statistical analysis

8: Overall Results

8.1. Preliminary comments

8.2. Regions and intervals of confidence

8.3. Hypothesis test

8.4. Comments

9: Historic Minuscule Simulations

9.1. Overview of IPCC simulations

9.2. Comparative simulations

9.3. Representative concentration pathways (RCPs)

9.4. Comparative radiative forcing

10: Long-term Climate Projections

10.1. IPCC scenarios and projections

10.2. EBM compatible scenarios

10.3. Long-term projections.

10.4. A disaster scenario

11: Short-term Predictions

11.1. Decadal time scale predictions by GCM

11.2. The climate's natural variability

11.3. State estimate and prediction

11.4. Decadal time scale predictions by EBM

11.5. A posteriori predictions

12: Conclusions

12.1. On the identification

12.2. Climate sensitivity

12.3. Solar activity

12.4. Predictive capacity

12.5. The climate change in question

12.6. Prospects

Bibliography

Index.

Notes:

Descripción basada en la versión impresa.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9781119054023

1119054028

9781119053989

1119053986

9781119053941

1119053943

OCLC:

894791046