Facing the fold : essays on scenario planning / James A Ogilvy.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Ogilvie, James.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Strategic planning.

Emergency management.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (311 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Axminster, Devon, UK : Triarchy Press, c2011.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

How do we face the uncertainty and complexity of the future? An overly optimistic perspective can be motivating but easily dismissed as na ve or shallow; the pessimistic outlook may be considered to be deeper and more 'knowing' but could lead to inaction. But limiting our visions of the future to simply one of these two 'branches' would mean adopting a position that is ultimately no more than a fatalistic rut. Facing The Fold is a collection of highly regarded journal essays about how scenario thinking uses the capacious space of the 'fold' to encourage thinking around alternative scenarios--to create the future we both want and need. Scenarios are not predictions, nor are they strategies. Scenarios are stories -- narratives of alternative futures, designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues. According to Ogilvy, scenario planning has generally been considered an art, but here he discusses the extent to which it can also be considered an integral part of 'the new sciences', especially complexity science. The narrative of scenario planning is of particular importance to complexity practitioners. Like complexity approaches, the advantage of scenarios is that they take into account the values and the contextual complexity surrounding the community and provide a way to reflect on the consequences of any strategy changes. The book is divided into 3 clear sections: Section I is about the 'nuts and bolts' of scenario planning and, as outlined in the first chapter co-authored with Peter Schwartz, the steps involved in the practice of developing scenarios, and the key considerations to ensure successful scenario planning. Section II situates scenario planning in the larger context of the human sciences of anthropology, psychology, literary criticism, philosophy and sociology. Section III offers a set of case studies--actual scenarios created for real projects. Lessons learnt from working in the public and the private sector are followed by two in-depth case studies on the future of higher education in California and K-12 public education in Seattle. The challenges and opportunities that were faced at the time are uncannily similar to current problems in the funding of education facilities around the world. Alternative scenarios to the momentum of increasing deficit and declining quality were developed at the time, and the author provides an afterword to show how these scenarios have held up over time. As Adam Kahane (Reos Partners and the University of Oxford) said in his review '...This wonderful collection of his writings is a most welcome and valuable contribution to the field.'

Contents:

""COVER""; ""CONTENTS""; ""Acknowledgements""; ""Facing the Fold""; ""Section I: Scenario Planning: What, Why, and How""; ""1. Plotting Your Scenarios""; ""1 Finding a Few Plots""; ""2 Fleshing Out the Scenario Plots ""; ""3 Ten Tips for Successful Scenarios""; ""2. Scenario Planning: Art or Science?""; ""Part I: What�s wrong with regarding scenario planning as only an art?""; ""Part II: How does scenario planning differ from predict-and-control, monological science?""; ""Part III: Scenario Planning and A New Kind of Science""

""Part IV: Art and Ethics�the Aesthetics of Normative Scenarios""""3. Equity and Equality: Education in the Information Age""; ""Part I: Implementing Scenario Planning""; ""Part II: A Declaration of Educational Equity ""; ""Part III: Putting Information Era Content into Scenario Form""; ""Section II: Scenario Planning in Context""; ""4. Future Studies and the Human Sciences: ""; ""1. The Emergent Paradigm in the Human Sciences""; ""2a. Anthropology: From Explanation by Law to a Semiotic Discipline""; ""2b. Implications of New Anthropology for Future Studies ""

""3a. Literary Criticism and the Legacy of Existentialism""""3b. The Import of Recent Literary Criticism for Future Studies""; ""4a. The Import of Psychology for the Emergent Paradigm""; ""4b. Import of Object Relations Psychology for Future Studies""; ""5a. From Critical Theory to Existential Sociology""; ""5b. Import of Existential Sociology for Future Studies""; ""6. Toward an Emergent Paradigm""; ""7. A New Look at Norms""; ""8. Earth Might Be Fair� A Normative Scenario""; ""5. Scenario Planning as the Fulfillment of Critical Theory""; ""Part I. The Dilemmas of Critical Theory""

""Part II. Unraveling the dilemmas of critical theory""""Part III. Scenario Planning and the role of Hope""; ""6. What Business Strategists Have to Learn from Sartre""; ""7. Organizational Learning, Evolution, and Scenarios""; ""1. Stories, Heritability, and Institutional Memory""; ""2. Evolutionary Theory and Scenario Planning""; ""3. Lessons for Organizational Learning""; ""Section III: Case Studies and Examples ""; ""8. Mapping Scenario Planning in the Public and Private Sectors: Lessons from regional projects""; ""Regions of Experience""

""Lessons Applied: Scenarios for the future of California�s Central Valley""""9. Three Scenarios for Higher Education in California""; ""PART ONE: The Problem and a Method for its Solution""; ""PART TWO: Key Factors and Driving Trends""; ""PART THREE: Scenarios""; ""Scenario One: Software Landing""; ""Scenario Two: Education Inc.""; ""Scenario Three: The New Educational Order""; ""PART FOUR: Conclusions""; ""Afterword""; ""10. Four Scenarios for the Future of Public Education in Seattle""; ""Part One: The Scenario Method""; ""Part Two: Predetermined Elements""

""Part Three: Critical Uncertainties""

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN:

1-908009-88-8

1-908009-73-X

OCLC:

815477966