The Global Impact of Demographic Change / Tim Callen, Warwick McKibbin, Nicoletta Batini.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Callen, Tim.

Contributor:

Batini, Nicoletta.

McKibbin, Warwick.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2006/009

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Demography--Econometric models.

Demography.

Population--Economic aspects--Econometric models.

Population.

Aging--Economic aspects--Econometric models.

Aging.

Saving and investment--Econometric models.

Saving and investment.

Capital movements--Econometric models.

Capital movements.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (36 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2006.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

The world is in the midst of a major demographic transition. This paper examines the implications of such transition over the next 80 years for Japan, the United States, other industrial countries, and the developing regions of the world using a dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium four-country model containing demographics calibrated to the "medium variant" of the United Nations population projections. We find that population aging in industrial countries will reduce aggregate growth in these regions over time, but should boost growth in developing countries over the next 20-30 years, as the relative size of their workingage populations increases. Demographic change will also affect saving, investment, and capital flows, implying changes in global trade balances and asset prices. We also explore the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about future productivity growth and country external risk for the developing country region.

Contents:

""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. SOME BACKGROUND ON GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE""; ""III. MODELING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE""; ""IV. HOW WILL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AFFECT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY?""; ""V. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS""; ""VI. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS""; ""Appendix: The Analytical Approach""; ""References""

Notes:

"January 2006."

"McKibbin's research in this paper was supported by the Economic and Social Research Institute of the Japanese Cabinet Office International Collaborations Project through the Brookings Institution and was prepared as background material for the September 2004 World Economic Outlook."--Title page.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 31-34).

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9786613830647

9781462360918

1462360912

9781452752174

1452752176

9781283518192

1283518198

9781451908053

1451908059

OCLC:

535146951