Surprise attack : the victim's perspective / Ephraim Kam.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Kam, Ephraim, 1941-

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Surprise (Military science).

Military art and science.

International relations.

Preemptive attack (Military science).

Military history, Modern--20th century.

Military history, Modern.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (xv,266p. ) ill.

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Mass. ; London : Harvard University Press, 2004.

Summary:

Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgemental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints. Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny.--Ehud Barak, Former Prime Minister of Israel

Contents:

Frontmatter

Acknowledgments

Contents

Foreword

Preface, 2004: Old Patterns, New Lessons

Introduction

Part I. The Components of Surprise Attack

1. The Essence of Surprise Attack

2. Information and Indicators

3. Intentions and Capabilities

Part II. Judgmental Biases and Intelligence Analysis

4. Conceptions and Incoming Information

5. The Process of Analysis

Part III. The Environment

6. The Analyst and the Small Group

7. Organizational Obstacles

8. Intelligence and Decision Makers

Conclusion: Is Surprise Attack Inevitable?

Notes

Bibliography

Index

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

9780674039292

0674039297

OCLC:

923116926