Major recessions : Britain and the world, 1920-1995 / Christopher Dow.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Dow, J. C. R. (J. Christopher R.)

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Recessions.

Economic history--20th century.

Economic history.

Recessions--Great Britain.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (490 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Oxford ; New York : Oxford University Press, 1998.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

This book concentrates on the five biggest recessions in the twentieth century. It focuses on the UK, but makes numerous comparisons to recessions in other countries. Two major recessions are identified in the interwar period; three more in the years 1973-1995. The main conclusion reached is that major recessions reflect abrupt fallings off in demand not supply, and can be explained by identifiable demand shocks. The concluding chapter offers advice on how to avoidfuture severe recessions: a combination of prudent policy-making beforehand and special measures in the downturn and recovery.

Contents:

Intro

Preface

Contents

List of Figures

List of Tables

1 Introduction

1.1 The aims and methods of the study

1.2 The plan and character of the book

PART I: Prior Assumptions and Methodological Preliminaries

2 The Facts to be Explained

2.1 Conspectus of the whole period, 1920-95

2.2 The measurement of trends and fluctuations

2.3 Comparison of the three main phases since 1920 in the UK and other countries

2.4 Profits, factor shares, and real wages

3 The Causal Structure of the Economy

3.1 The main routes of causation in the economy

3.2 How growing supply creates growing demand

3.3 The explanation of unemployment

3.4 Implications for later chapters

Appendix A3.1 The theoretical debate on the features of the economic system that allow the possibility of unemployment

Appendix A3.2 The High Real Wage theory of unemployment

4 Supply and Demand Influences on the Rate of Growth

4.1 Some main facts about rates of growth

4.2 Explanations of variations in the rate of growth

4.3 Conclusions about rates of growth: supply versus demand factors as determinents of output growth

Appendix A4.1 Notes on growth accounting, and two other studies of growth

Appendix A4.2 Estimates of the growth of six countries' output and exports of manufactures, 1870-1970

5 Shocks and Responses in Major Fluctuations

5.1 The economy's response to shocks

5.2 Indicators of demand shocks and tests of their ability to explain fluctuations

5.3 The causation of fluctuations: a first survey

Appendix A5 New estimates of fiscal policy impact

PART II: Case Studies of Five Major Recessions

6 The Two Interwar Recessions

6.1 Overview of the interwar period

6.2 The 1920-1 recession and its aftermath

6.3 The Great Depression: the world and the United States, 1929-33.

6.4 The world depression and the UK depression

6.5 Economic recovery in Britain, 1932-40

6.6 Theoretical conclusions

Appendix A6.1 A critique of Friedman and Schwartz's A Monetary History of the United States

Appendix A6.2 The gold standard as a cause of the Great Depression: a critique of Eichengreen's Golden Fetters

Appendix A6.3 A model of the international transmission of the US Depression

Appendix A6.4 List of statistical sources

7 The Long Interval without Major Recession, 1945-73

7.1 Overview of the period

7.2 Reasons for faster growth and high demand

7.3 Minor fluctuations of the period

7.4 Was the Golden Age doomed anyway?

7.5 The behaviour of the economy: conclusions from the 1945-73 experience

8 The Two OPEC Recessions (1973-5 and 1979-82)

8.1 Background issues: political developments and the oil price shocks

8.2 A demand-side explanation, of the OPEC recessions

8.3 Assessment of the 1970s experience

Appendix A8 The inflationary surges of the 1970s

9 The Credit Expansion of the Late 1980s and the Recession of the Early 1990s

9.1 Summary of thesis: the interrelation between real and financial disturbances

9.2 Boom and recession in other countries

9.3 Boom and recession in the UK

9.4 What the 1989 recession contributes to our ideas about the behaviour of the economy

9.5 Postscript: the resumption of growth, 1992-5

PART III: Conclusions

10 The Theoretical Model: The Economy's Behaviour to Major Fluctuations

10.1 A picture of an economy lacking some elements of self-adjustment

10.2 The nature of major recessions

10.3 The shape of major recessions and the role of expectations (or confidence)

Appendix A10 A formal account of interactions during recessions

11 The Causation of Major Recessions: Summary and Discussion of Empirical Findings.

11.1 Estimation of constant-employment growth rates: the loss resulting from major recessions

11.2 Explanation of major recessions in terms of exogenous demand shocks

11.3 Case studies of the major recessions: summary

11.4 The long period without major recessions (1945-73): possible lessons

11.5 Concluding remarks on public debt, and on the predictability of major recessions

Appendix A11 The National Debt since World War II

12 Are Recurrent Major Recessions Inevitable?

12.1 Background issues: theory

politics

inflation

12.2 The traditional tools of macroeconomic policy

12.3 Possible policies to counter major recessions

12.4 The chances of avoiding major recessions in future

References

General Index

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

N

O

P

R

S

T

U

V

W

Author Index

Q

Y.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Includes bibliographical references (p. [447]-462) and indexes.

Description based on metadata supplied by the publisher and other sources.

ISBN:

0-19-152170-1

OCLC:

646792734