Global catastrophes and trends : the next fifty years / Vaclav Smil.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Smil, Vaclav.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Environmental risk assessment.

Natural disasters.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (322 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, MA : MIT Press, c2008.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

From the Publisher: Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fatal discontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. This is not a book of forecasts or scenarios but one that reminds us to pay attention to, and plan for, the consequences of apparently unpredictable events and the ultimate direction of long-term trends. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance: the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources; demographic and political shifts in Europe, Japan, Russia, China, the United States, and Islamic nations; the battle for global primacy; and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change-in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change-and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, relying on long-term historical perspectives and a distaste for the rigid compartmentalization of knowledge, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe.

Contents:

Intro

Contents

Preface

1 How (Not) to Look Ahead

2 Fatal Discontinuities

3 Unfolding Trends

4 Environmental Change

5 Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty

Appendix A Units and Abbreviations, Prefixes

Appendix B Acronyms

References

Name Index

Subject Index.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Includes bibliographical references and indexes.

OCLC-licensed vendor bibliographic record.

ISBN:

9780262291620

0262291622

9780262283878

0262283875

9781435654990

1435654994

OCLC:

463189465