Trade policy and global poverty / William R. Cline.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Cline, William R.

Contributor:

Institute for International Economics (U.S.)

Center for Global Development.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Commercial policy.

Tariff preferences.

Protectionism.

Free trade--Economic aspects--Developing countries.

Free trade.

Poverty--Developing countries.

Poverty.

Income distribution--Developing countries.

Income distribution.

Developing countries--Commercial policy.

Developing countries.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (336 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, DC. : Institute for International Economics : Center for Global Development, c2004.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

The stakes of the poor in trade policy are large: Free trade can help 500 million people escape poverty and inject $200 billion annually into the economies of developing countries, according to author William R. Cline. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential for trade liberalization to spur growth and reduce poverty in developing countries. It quantifies the impact on global poverty of industrial-country liberalization, as well as liberalization by the developing countries. Half or more of the annual gains from trade would come from the removal of industrial-country protection against developing-country exports. By removing their trade barriers, industrial countries could convey economic benefits to developing countries worth about twice the amount of their annual development assistance. By helping developing countries grow through trade, moreover, industrial countries could lower costs to consumers for imports and realize other economic efficiencies. The study estimates that free trade could reduce the number of people earning less than $2 per day by about 500 million over 15 years. This would cut the world poverty level by 25 percent. Cline judges that the developing countries were right to risk collapse of the Doha Round at the Cancun ministerial meeting in September 2003 by insisting on much deeper liberalization of agriculture than the industrial countries were then willing to offer. The study calls for a two-track strategy: first, deep multilateral liberalization involving phased but complete elimination of industrial-county protection and deep reduction of protection by at least the middle-income developing countries, albeit on a more gradual schedule; and second, immediate free entry for imports from "high risk" low-income countries (heavily indebted poor countries, least developed countries, and sub-Saharan Africa), coupled with a 10-year tax holiday for direct investment in these countries.

Contents:

Cover

Contents

Preface

Acknowledgments

Summary

Chapter 1 Sizing Up the Issues

The Extent and Location of Global Poverty

Poverty Location by Size Groups

Table 1.1

Table 1.2

Least Developed, Heavily Indebted Poor, and sub-Saharan African Countries

Table 1.3

India and China

Implications

Trade Patterns in Relation to Poverty

Table 1.4

Table 1.5

Table 1.6

Poverty, Growth, and Trade

Does Growth Reduce Poverty?

The Paradox of Persistent Global Poverty

Misleading Data?

Rising Inequality?

Table 1.7

Figure 1.1

Figure 1.2

Table 1.8

Population Growth Offset

The Issue of Convergence

Does Trade Increase Growth?

Figure 1.3

Conclusion

Appendix 1A Estimating Poverty Rates

Figure 1A.1

Table 1A.1

Appendix 1B Poverty Incidence and Elasticity under the Lognormal Distribution

Table 1B.1

Appendix 1C Convergence Versus Divergence in International Income Levels

Chapter 2 Arrangements for Preferential Access: Experience and Potential

The Generalized System of Preferences

Special Regimes of the European Union

Special Regimes of the United States

Testing for the Trade Impact of Preferential Regimes

Policy Implications

Chapter 3 Industrial-Country Protection and the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Global Poverty

Tariffs on Manufactured Goods

Table 3.1

Peak Tariffs: How Important Are They?

Table 3.2

Table 3.3

Tariffs and Quotas in Textiles and Apparel

Table 3.4

Table 3.5

Table 3.6

Industrial-Country Protection in Agriculture

Table 3.7

Table 3.8

Table 3.9

Aggregate Protection Against Developing Countries

Table 3.10

The Impact of Industrial-Country Agricultural Trade Liberalization on Global Poverty

Food Trade Balance and Poverty

Table 3.11

Contingent Protection

Table 3.12

Table 3.13.

General Equilibrium Model Estimates of Trade Liberalization Effects

Table 3.14

The Poverty Impact of Trade Liberalization

Protection in Services

Appendix 3A Weighting Protection

Figure 3A.1

Appendix 3B The Tariff Equivalent of Agricultural Subsidies

Figure 3B.1

Appendix 3C The Impact of Industrial-Country Agricultural Import Liberalization on Poverty Incidence in Developing Countries

Static Effects

Figure 3C.1

Dynamic Effects

Combined Effects

Data and Results

Table 3C.1

Sensitivity Analysis

Table 3C.2

Appendix 3D Trade Balance and Comparative Advantage in Food and Agriculture for Least Developed Countries, 1999-2001

Chapter 4 Modeling the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Global Poverty

The Harrison-Rutherford-Tarr CGE Model

The GTAP5 Trade and Protection Database

Trade Liberalization Simulation Results

Table 4.1

Table 4.2

Table 4.3

Table 4.4

Table 4.5

Factor Price Effects

Table 4.6

Poverty Effects: Static

Table 4.7

Poverty Effects: Steady State

Table 4.8

Table 4.9

Preference Erosion

Table 4.10

Poverty Effects in Alternative Scenarios

Appendix 4A PEHRT Model Definitions

Chapter 5 The Impact of Trade on Poverty Through Growth Effects

The Impact of Trade on Growth

The Impact of Trade Policy on Growth

The Dynamic Productivity Effects of Trade Liberalization on Global Poverty

The Combined Static, Dynamic, and Induced-Investment Effects

Caveats

Chapter 6 Conclusion

Principal Findings

The Doha Round after Cancún

References

Index.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Includes bibliographical references (p. 293-304) and index.

ISBN:

9786611397159

9781281397157

1281397156

9780881324594

0881324590

9781435655362

1435655362

OCLC:

236076902