Interpreting probability : controversies and developments in the early twentieth century / David Howie.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Howie, David, 1970- author.

Series:

Cambridge studies in probability, induction, and decision theory.

Cambridge studies in probability, induction and decision theory

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Jeffreys, Harold, 1891-1989.

Jeffreys, Harold.

Fisher, Ronald Aylmer, Sir, 1890-1962.

Fisher, Ronald Aylmer.

Probabilities.

Bayesian statistical decision theory.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (xi, 262 pages) : digital, PDF file(s).

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2002.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

The term probability can be used in two main senses. In the frequency interpretation it is a limiting ratio in a sequence of repeatable events. In the Bayesian view, probability is a mental construct representing uncertainty. This 2002 book is about these two types of probability and investigates how, despite being adopted by scientists and statisticians in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, Bayesianism was discredited as a theory of scientific inference during the 1920s and 1930s. Through the examination of a dispute between two British scientists, the author argues that a choice between the two interpretations is not forced by pure logic or the mathematics of the situation, but depends on the experiences and aims of the individuals involved. The book should be of interest to students and scientists interested in statistics and probability theories and to general readers with an interest in the history, sociology and philosophy of science.

Contents:

The meaning of probability

The history of probability

Scope of this book

Methods and argument

Synopsis and aims

Probability up to the Twentieth Century

Early applications of the probability calculus

Resistance to the calculation of uncertainty

The doctrine of chances

Inverse probability

Laplacean probability

The eclipse of Laplacean probability

Social statistics

The rise of the frequency interpretation of probability

Opposition to social statistics and probabilistic methods

Probability theory in the sciences: evolution and biometrics

The interpretation of probability around the end of the nineteenth century

R.A. Fisher and Statistical Probability

R.A. Fisher's early years

Evolution

the biometricians versus the Mendelians

Fisher's early work

The clash with Pearson

Fisher's rejection of inverse probability

Fisher's new version of probability

The papers of 1921 and 1922

The Pearson-Fisher feud

The move to Rothamsted: experimental design

The position in 1925

Statistical Methods for Research Workers

The development of fiducial probability

Fisher's position in 1932

Harold Jeffreys and Inverse Probability

Jeffreys's background and early career

The Meteorological Office

Dorothy Wrinch

Broad's 1918 paper

Wrinch and Jeffreys tackle probability

After the first paper

General relativity

The Oppau explosion

New work on probability

John Maynard Keynes

Other factors

Probability theory extended.

Notes:

Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015).

Includes bibliographical references (p. 239-251) and index.

ISBN:

1-107-12556-1

0-521-03754-9

0-511-14772-4

0-511-30498-6

0-511-49848-9

1-280-42150-9

0-511-04535-2

0-511-17739-9

9786610421503

OCLC:

52733624