Terrorism, asymmetric warfare, and weapons of mass destruction : defending the U.S. homeland / by Anthony H. Cordesman.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Cordesman, Anthony H.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Terrorism--United States--Prevention.

Terrorism.

Asymmetric warfare--United States.

Asymmetric warfare.

Weapons of mass destruction.

United States--Defenses.

United States.

United States--Military policy.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (455 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Distribution:

London : Bloomsbury Publishing, 2024

Place of Publication:

Westport, Conn. : Praeger, 2001.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

There is a wide spectrum of potential threats to the U.S. homeland that do not involve overt attacks by states using long-range missiles or conventional military forces. Such threats include covert attacks by state actors, state use of proxies, independent terrorist and extremist attacks by foreign groups or individuals, and independent terrorist and extremist attacks by residents of the United States. These threats are currently limited in scope and frequency, but are emerging as potentially significant issues for future U.S. security. In this comprehensive work, Cordesman argues that new threats require new thinking, and offers a range of recommendations, from expanding the understanding of what constitutes a threat and bolstering Homeland defense measures, to bettering resource allocation and improving intelligence gathering and analysis. No pattern of actual attacks on U.S. territory has yet emerged that provides a clear basis for predicting how serious any given form of attack might be in the future, what means of attack might be used, or how lethal new forms of attack might be. As a result, there is a major ongoing debate over the seriousness of the threat and how the U.S. government should react. This work is an invaluable contribution to that debate.

Contents:

Cover

Contents

Acknowledgments

Chapter 1 The Changing Face of Asymmetric Warfare and Terrorism

THE GROWING FOCUS ON TERRORISM

TERRORISM VERSUS ASYMMETRIC WARFARE

NOTES

Chapter 2 Risk Assessment: Planning for "Non-patterns" and Potential Risk

LOOKING BEYOND EMOTIONAL DEFINITIONS OF TERRORISM

RETHINKING THE MID- AND LONG-TERM RISK OF CBRN ATTACK

PATTERNS AND NON-PATTERNS IN THE NUMBER OF ATTACKS

CASUALTIES VERSUS INCIDENTS: THE LACK OF CORRELATION

U.S. AND AMERICAN CASUALTIES VERSUS INTERNATIONAL CASUALTIES

CONSIDERING THE THREAT FROM STATE AND NON-STATE ACTORS

States, "Terrorists," and Acts of War

Planning for Major Attacks and Asymmetric Warfare by State Actors

The Threat of "Proxies" and "Networks"

Dealing with Nuance and Complex Motives

CONSIDERATION OF THE FULL SPECTRUM OF POSSIBLE TYPES AND METHODS OF ATTACK: THE NEED TO CONSIDER "WORST CASES"

MAKING OFFENSE, DETERRENCE, DENIAL, DEFENSE, AND RETALIATION PART OF HOMELAND DEFENSE

LINKING HOMELAND DEFENSE TO COUNTERPROLIFERATION

Chapter 3 Threat Prioritization: Seeking to Identify Current and Future Threats

POTENTIAL STATE ACTORS

A Department of State Assessment of State Threats

A Department of Defense Assessment of Threats from Foreign States

The Probable Lack of Well-Defined Strategic Warning of a Threat from State Actors and Unpredictable Behavior in a Crisis

FOREIGN TERRORISTS AND EXTREMISTS

Continuing Threats and Counterterrorist Action

Major Foreign Terrorist Groups and Extremists

Threats from Foreign Students and Immigrants

DOMESTIC TERRORISTS AND EXTREMISTS

The Implications of Past Terrorist Attacks

PROBABILITY VERSUS PROBABILITY THEORY

Chapter 4 Types of Attack: Determining Future Methods of Attack and the Needed Response

ILLUSTRATIVE ATTACK SCENARIOS.

"CONVENTIONAL" MEANS OF ATTACK

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

CHEMICAL WEAPONS AS MEANS OF ATTACK

The Impact and Variety of Possible Chemical Weapons

The Probable Lethality and Effectiveness of Chemical Attacks

Methods of Delivery

Detection and Interception

Acquiring Chemical Weapons

The Impact of Technological Change

The Aum Shinrikyo Case Study

Political and Psychological Effects

The Problem of Response

BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AS A MEANS OF ATTACK

Categorizing the Biological Threat

Case Studies: Iraq and Russia

State Actor, Proxy, and Terrorist/Extremist Incidents to Date

The Yugoslav Smallpox Incident

Cases in the United States

The Lethality and Effectiveness of Current Biological Weapons

Anthrax As a Case Example

Botulism As a Case Example

Plague As a Case Example

Smallpox As a Case Example

Detect, Defend, and Respond to What?

Means of Delivery

Manufacturing Biological Weapons

Changes in Technology and the Difficulty of Manufacture

The Growing Lethality of Biological Weapons and Growing Ease of Manufacture

New Types of Biological Weapons

Changes in Disease: Piggybacking on the Threat from Nature

Agricultural and Ecological Attacks

Funding Half-Measures and False Solutions?

The Need for Constantly Updated Net Technical Assessments

Reconsidering the Practical Problems in Defense and Response

The Problem of Large-Scale or Highly Efficient Attacks

Other Problems in the Present Response Effort

Cost-Effectiveness of Real-World Options

RADIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AS MEANS OF ATTACK

The Practical Chances of Using Radiological Weapons

The Practical Risks and Effects of Using Radiological Weapons

NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS MEANS OF ATTACK

Lethality and Effectiveness.

Is There a Threat from State Actors, Proxies, Terrorists, and Extremists? The Problem of Getting the Weapon

The Problem of Delivery

Dealing with the Risk and Impact of Nuclear Attacks

Problems in Responding to a Nuclear Attack

Rethinking the Unthinkable about Nuclear Attacks on the U.S. Homeland

Chapter 5 Threat Assessment and Prioritization: Identifying Threats

DR. PANGLOSS VERSUS CHICKEN LITTLE AND THE BOY WHO CRIED WOLF

THE PROBLEM OF DETECTION, WARNING, AND RESPONSE

LIVING WITH COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY: A FLEXIBLE AND EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH

THE "MORNING AFTER," MULTIPLE ATTACKS

THE "MORNING AFTER" AND THE "LEARNING CURVE EFFECT"

Chapter 6 U.S. Government Efforts to Create a Homeland Defense Capability

KEY PRESIDENTIAL DECISION DIRECTIVES AND LEGISLATION AFFECTING THE FEDERAL RESPONSE

ONGOING CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE FEDERAL EFFORT

THE GROWTH OF THE FEDERAL EFFORT

The FY2000 Program

The FY2001 Program

THE DETAILS OF THE FEDERAL EFFORT

The Changing Patterns in Federal Spending

Planning and Programming the Overall Federal Effort

Antiterrorism, Counterterrorism, and Core Spending

Antiterrorism

Counterterrorism

"Core Spending" on Terrorism

Spending on Preparedness for Attacks Using Weapons of Mass Destruction

WMD Antiterrorism Activities

WMD Counterterrorism

Research and Development for Defense against WMD

Chapter 7 Federal Efforts by Department and Agency

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

NATIONAL ANIMAL HEALTH EMERGENCY PROGRAM

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Analyzing the Role of the DOD

The Size of the Current DOD Effort

Dedicated FY2001 DOD Expenditures for CBRN/WMD Homeland Defense

Key DOD Activities

Antiterrorism and Force Protection

Counterterrorism.

Terrorism Consequence Management

Domestic Preparedness Program

Consequence Management Response Program

Defense Threat Reduction Agency

The Chemical/Biological Defense Program

WMD Civil Support Teams

Joint Task Force for Civil Support

Defense Logistics Agency

Specialized DOD Teams and Units for Defense and Response

Research and Development

Intelligence

Counterforce Capability against an Adversary's Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Infrastructures

The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program

Conclusions

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

Office of Nonproliferation and National Security

Office of Emergency Management

Office of Defense Programs

Office of Emergency Response

Nuclear Emergency Search Team

Radiological Assistance Program

The Nuclear Safeguards, Security, and Emergency Operations Program

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response

On-Scene Coordinator

FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY

Response and Recovery Directorate

Preparedness, Training, and Exercises Directorate

U.S. Fire Administration

National Fire Academy and Emergency Management Institute

GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION

DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

Metropolitan Medical Response Systems

National Pharmaceutical Stockpile Program

Public Health Surveillance System for WMD

DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR

DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE AND FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION

National Domestic Preparedness Office

Office for State and Local Domestic Preparedness Support

State Domestic Preparedness Equipment Program

Metropolitan Fire and Emergency Medical Services Training Program

OSLDPS Technical Assistance Activities.

State Domestic Preparedness Equipment Program Needs Assessment and Strategy Development Initiative

TOPOFF Exercises

National Domestic Preparedness Consortium

Awareness of National Security Issues and Response Program

National Institute of Justice

NATIONAL SECURITY COMMUNITY

NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION

DEPARTMENT OF STATE

Embassy Protection

Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism

Foreign Emergency Support Teams

Technical Support Working Group

Bureau of Consular Affairs

Bureau of Diplomatic Security

Anti-Terrorism Assistance Program

Export Controls and Homeland Defense

Arms Control and Homeland Defense

DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY

DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS

LOOKING BEYOND SEPTEMBER 2001

Chapter 8 Federal, State, and Local Cooperation

PLANNING FOR LOW- TO MID-LEVEL TERRORISM

WEST NILE OUTBREAK

THE LESSONS FROM "JOINTNESS"

Chapter 9 How Other Nations Deal with These Threats

LEADERSHIP AND MANAGEMENT

POLICIES AND STRATEGIES

CLAIMED RELIANCE ON CRIMINAL PROSECUTION AS THE MAJOR RESPONSE AND DETERRENT

OVERSIGHT, PLANNING, PROGRAMMING, AND BUDGETING

RESOURCE ALLOCATIONS ARE TARGETED AT LIKELY THREATS, NOT VULNERABILITIES: LIMITED CONCERN WITH WMD THREATS

LEARNING FROM FOREIGN COUNTRIES

Chapter 10 Lessons from Recent Major Commissions on Terrorism

THE GILMORE, BREMER, AND HART-RUDMAN COMMISSIONS

AREAS WHERE THE COMMISSIONS MADE SIMILAR RECOMMENDATIONS

Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Executive Coordination and Management

Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Congressional Oversight

Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Intelligence Gathering and Sharing

Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Clarify Authority, Command, and Control.

Bremer and Hart-Rudman Commissions: Biological Pathogens, International Consensus against Terrorism, and Strengthening of Public Health Systems.

Notes:

"Published in cooperation with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C." - t.p.

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN:

9798216024453

9780313006906

0313006903

OCLC:

646706168