Taking chances : winning with probability / John Haigh.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Haigh, John, 1955-

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Probabilities--Popular works.

Probabilities.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (388 p.)

Edition:

New ed.

Place of Publication:

Oxford [England] ; New York : Oxford University Press, 2003 (2009 printing)

Language Note:

English

Summary:

What are the odds against winning the Lottery, making money in a casino, or backing the right horse? Every day, people make judgments on these matters and face other decisions that rest on their understanding of probability: buying insurance, following medical advice, carrying an umbrella. Yet many of us have a frightening ignorance of how probability works. Taking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyses a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pool

Contents:

Cover; Contents; 1 What is probability?; Think straight; The inviolable rule; Some working methods; Long runs; Averages and variability; 2 Lotteries; Your chance of winning; A winning strategy?; More than one ticket?; Other lotteries; Are the numbers drawn really random?; Summary; Postscript; 3 Football Pools, Premium Bonds; Football Pools; Premium Bonds; The best gamble?; 4 One coin, many games; How's your intuition?; Game on; Penney-ante; How long are you in the lead?; Postscript; Summary; Test yourself quiz; 5 Dice; One die; Two dice-backgammon; Two dice-Monopoly; Two dice-craps

Three or more dice-totals Four dice-Chevalier de Méré's problem; Bettering an opponent; Fairground games; 6 Games with few choices; The dating game; An easier game; A fisherman's tale; Back to Table 6.2; A fair game?; Finding the best strategies; Other games; Two choices for Roy, many for Colin; Counter signals; Games animals play; The battle of the sexes; Postscript; Summary; Test yourself quiz; 7 Waiting, waiting, waiting; Birthdays; The Spoilers (2); Other matches; More than one match?; Packs of cards (1); Packs of cards (2); Card/coupon collecting; The secretary problem

8 Let's play best of three Snooker-type games; Darts; Squash-type games; Anyone for tennis?; Summary; 9 TV games; Find the lady; The Showcase showdown; Who wants to be a millionaire?; Shafted; The Weakest Link; Blockbusters; Postscript; 10 Casino games; Roulette; Casino stud poker; Baccarat chemin de fer; Other casino games; Test yourself quiz; 11 Bookies, the Tote, spread betting; Bookmakers; Can you win from the bookies?; The Tote; Spread betting; 12 This sporting life; Soccer; Golf; Cricket; Tennis; Tournament formats; 13 Lucky for some-miscellanea; Cards-whist, bridge; Shuffling

Dividing the prize Vowel or consonant?; Benford's law; Guess the other colour; At least two Aces?; Which player is favoured?; The birthday gift; Two paradoxes; 14 Probability for lawyers; Conditional probability; Baves' Theorem; Two fallacies; Other matters; Test yourself quiz; Appendix I. Counting; Appendix II. Probability; Appendix III. Averages and variability; Appendix IV. Goodness-of-fit tests; Appendix V. The Kelly strategy; Solutions to test yourself quizzes; Literature cited; Index;

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

1-383-02445-6

1-283-93770-0

0-19-159410-5

0-19-150055-0

OCLC:

818851552