Managing risk : the human element / by Romney B. Duffey, John W. Saull.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Duffey, R. B. (Romney B.)

Contributor:

Saull, John Walton, 1935-

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Industrial safety.

Industrial accidents.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (578 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Chichester, UK : John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 2008.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

The human element is the principle cause of incidents and accidents in all technology industries; hence it is evident that an understanding of the interaction between humans and technology is crucial to the effective management of risk. Despite this, no tested model that explicitly and quantitatively includes the human element in risk prediction is currently available. Managing Risk: the Human Element combines descriptive and explanatory text with theoretical and mathematical analysis, offering important new concepts that can be used to improve the management of risk, trend analysis

Contents:

Managing Risk: The Human Element; Contents; About the Authors; Preface; Acknowledgements; Definitions of Risk and Risk Management; Introduction: The Art of Prediction and the Creation of Order; Risk and Risk Management; Defining Risk; Managing Risk: Our Purpose, Plan and Goals; Recent Tragic Outcomes; Power Blackouts, Space Shuttle Losses, Concorde Crashes, Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and More . . .; How Events and Disasters Evolve in a Phased Development: The Human Element; Our Values at Risk: The Probable Improvement; Probably or Improbably Not; How This Book Is Organised; References

Technical Summary Defining the Past Probability; Predicting Future Risk: Sampling from the Jar of Life; A Possible Future: Defining the Posterior Probability; The Engineers have an Answer: Reliability; Drawing from the Jar of Life: The Hazard Function and Species Extinction; Experiencing Failure: Engineering and Human Risk and Reliability; Experience Space; Managing Safely: Creating Order Out of Disorder Using Safety Management Systems; Describing the Indescribable: Top-Down and Bottom-Up; What an Observer Will Observe and the Depth of Our Experience; References

1: The Universal Learning Curve Predicting Tragedies, Accidents and Failures: Using the Learning Hypothesis; The Learning Hypothesis: The Marketplace of Life; Learning in Homo-Technological Systems (HTSs): The Way a Human Learns; Evidence of Risk Reduction by Learning; Evidence of Learning from Experience: Case Studies; Evidence of Learning in Economics; Evidence of Learning in Engineering and Architecture: The Costs of Mistakes; Learning in Technology: The Economics of Reducing Costs; Evidence of Learning Skill and Risk Reduction in the Medical Profession: Practice Makes Almost Perfect

Learning in HTSs : The Recent Data Still Agree The Equations That Describe the Learning Curve; Zero Defects and Reality; Predicting Failures: The Human Bathtub; Experience Space: The Statistics of Managing Safety and of Observing Accidents; Predicting the Future Based on Past Experience: The Prior Ignorance; Future Events: The Way Forward Using Learning Probabilities; The Wisdom of Experience and Inevitability; The Last, First or Rare Event; Conclusions and Observations: Predicting Accidents; References; 2: The Four Echoes

Power Blackouts, Space Shuttle Losses, Concorde Crashes, and the Chernobyl and Three Mile Island Accidents The Combination of Events; The Problem Is the Human Element; The Four Echoes Share the Same Four Phases; The First Echo: Blackout of the Power Grid; Management's Role; The First Echo: Findings; Error State Elimination; The Second Echo: Columbia/Challenger; The Results of the Inquiry: Prior Knowledge; The Second Echo: The Four Phases; Management's Responsibility; Error State Elimination; The Third Echo: Concorde Tires and SUVs; Tire Failures: The Prior Knowledge

The Third Echo: The Four Phases

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

9786612687464

9781282687462

1282687468

9780470714461

0470714468

9781615830916

161583091X

9780470714454

047071445X

OCLC:

608624251