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Blindside : how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics / Francis Fukuyama, editor.
- Format:
- Book
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Emergency management--United States.
- Emergency management.
- International relations.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (208 p.)
- Edition:
- 1st ed.
- Place of Publication:
- Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, c2007.
- Language Note:
- English
- Summary:
- "Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher.
- Contents:
- The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama
- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner
- Cases: looking back
- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes
- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz
- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale
- Cases: looking ahead
- The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian
- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin
- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett
- Forecasting
- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert
- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop
- What could be
- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook
- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett
- American scenarios
- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama
- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama
- Contributors
- Index.
- Notes:
- "An American Interest Book."
- Includes bibliographical references (p. [173]-182) and index.
- ISBN:
- 9786611029630
- 9781281029638
- 1281029637
- 9780815729891
- 0815729898
- OCLC:
- 173812431
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