Abrupt climate change : inevitable surprises / Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, Ocean Studies Board, Polar Research Board, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Abrupt Climate Change.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Climatic changes.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (252 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : National Academy Press, 2002.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic--and often extreme--shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.

Contents:

Machine generated contents note: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

Improve the Fundamental Knowledge Base Related to

Abrupt Climate Change, 2

Improve Modeling Focused on Abrupt Climate Change, 4

Improve Paleoclimatic Data Related to Abrupt Climate Change, 5

Improve Statistical Approaches, 7

Investigate "No-Regrets" Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability, 8

1 INTRODUCTION TO ABRUPT CHANGES IN THE

EARTH'S CLIMATE 10

Definition of Abrupt Climate Change, 14

Scientific Evidence, Processes, and Consequences for

Society and Ecosystems, 15

The Charge to the Committee, 17

2 EVIDENCE OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE 19

Interpretation of Past Climatic Conditions from Proxy Records, 19

The Younger Dryas as an Example of Abrupt Climate Change, 24

Abrupt Climate Changes Before the Younger Dryas Event, 36

Eemian Rapid Climate Change, 38

Holocene Rapid Climate Change, 40

Rapid Climate Changes in the Instrumental Period, 45

Patterns of Climate Variability, 48

Trends Recor4ed Instrumentally, 56

Synopsis of Observations, 69

3 PROCESSES THAT CAUSE ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE 73

An Overview of Mechanisms, 74

Atmosphere, 80

Abrupt Climate Change and Thermohaline Circulation, 89

4 GLOBAL WARMING AS A POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOR 107

ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE

Changes in North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, 108

Limited Predictability Close to an Instability, 111

Changes in Natural Modes of the Atmosphere-Ocean System, 112

Possible Future Abrupt Changes in the Hydrological Cycle, 113

Ice Sheet Changes, 114

Outlook, 115

5 ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF ABRUPT 118

CLIMATE CHANGE

Recent Scientific Studies in the Ecological and Social Sciences, 120

Sectoral Approaches, 141

Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change, 149

6 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 153

Abrupt Climate Change, 154

Improve Modeling Focused on Abrupt Climate Change, 159

Improve Paleoclimatic Data Related to Abrupt Climate Change, 161

Improve Statistical Approaches, 163

Investigate "No-Regrets" Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability, 164

Final Thoughts, 167

REFERENCES 168

APPENDIXES 203

A Committee and Staff Biographies, 203

B Board Rosters, 208

C Workshop Agenda, 212

D Workshop Participants, 214

E Impacts Workshop Program, 216

F Impacts Workshop Participants, 218

G Acronym List, 220

INDEX 223.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

9786610184729

9780309133043

0309133041

9781280184727

1280184728

9780309512848

0309512840

OCLC:

559496531