Undiscovered oil and gas resources : an evaluation of the Department of the Interior's 1989 assessment procedures / Committee on Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources, Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources, National Research Council.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Petroleum reserves--United States.

Petroleum reserves.

Natural gas reserves--United States.

Natural gas reserves.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (192 pages) : illustrations

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : National Academy Press, 1991.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

When the U.S. Department of the Interior released its 1989 estimates of how much undiscovered oil and gas remain in the United States, a controversy ensued. Some members of the petroleum industry charged that the estimates were too low. This book evaluates the scientific credibility of the statistical and geological methods underlying the estimates.

Contents:

Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources:

Copyright

Contents

Executive Summary

QUESTIONS ABOUT THE DOI'S 1989 RESOURCE ASSESSMENT

LIMITATIONS OF RESOURCE ASSESSMENTS

AN EVALUATION OF THE DOI'S 1989 RESOURCE ASSESSMENT

The Committee's Findings

Improper play definition

Insufficient consideration of conceptual plays

Inadequate consideration of probabilistic dependence

Imposition of economic constraints on recoverable resource calculations

Other Opportunities to Improve Future Assessments

RECOMMENDATIONS

Assessment Boundaries

USGS and MMS Management

Geological Approaches in Data Base Use and Play Analysis

Statistical Methods

Assessment Results

1 Introduction: Questions About the Department of the Interior's 1989 Resource Assessment

WHY RESOURCE ASSESSMENTS VARY

NEW ASSESSMENT METHODS

REFERENCES

2 Limitations of Resource Assessments

ASSESSMENT OBJECTIVES

UNCERTAINTY IN ASSESSMENTS

ASSESSMENT BOUNDARIES

Discovered/Undiscovered Boundary

Conventional/Unconventional Boundary

Recoverable/Unrecoverable Boundary

Technically Recoverable Resources

Economically Recoverable Resources

DATA BASES FOR RESOURCE ASSESSMENTS

Geologic Data Base

Production and Drilling Data Base

ESTIMATING RESERVE GROWTH

ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY

The Evolution of Government Assessments

Subjective Probability Methods

Discovery-Process Models

Methods for Considering Economics

RESOURCE ASSESSMENTS AND ENERGY POLICY

3 An Evaluation of the Department of the Interior's 1989 Resource Assessment

In-Place Resources: Recoverable/Unrecoverable Boundary

Economic Boundaries

USGS Economic Boundaries

MMS Economic Boundaries

Inferred Reserves and Reserve Growth.

DETAILED EVALUATION USGS ASSESSMENT METHODS

Organization and Staff

Data Base

Sources

Association of American State Geologists' Review of USGS Data

Data Auditing

Play Analysis

Background

Sources of Information About Plays

The USGS's Application of Play Analysis

Quantification of Expert Judgment and Statistical Methods

Background: The Appraisal Form

Geologic Risk Factors

Sizes of Undiscovered Fields in a Play

Number of Undiscovered Fields in a Play

Aggregation Within a Play

Aggregation of Plays Within a Province

Regional and National Aggregates

Subjective Probability Assessment and Training

Case Study: Alaska

Play Methodology

Technically Recoverable Resources Computation

Economic Assumptions: Minimum Economic Field Size

Uncertainty

DETAILED EVALUATION OF MMS ASSESSMENT METHODS

Play Definition: Potential for Play Mixing

Conceptual Plays

Analytical Techniques

Alaska Assessment Forms

Probabilistic Dependence

Assumptions

Economic Input

Uncertainties

Number of Undiscovered Fields

Sizes of Undiscovered Fields

Aggregation

4 Recommendations

USGS AND MMS MANAGEMENT

GEOLOGICAL APPROACHES IN DATA BASE USE AND PLAY ANALYSIS

Geological Data Bases

Play Formulation and Analysis

STATISTICAL METHODS

ASSESSMENT RESULTS

Appendixes

Appendix A Evaluation of the Hydrocarbon Resource Estimates for the Offshore Areas of Northern and ...

Introduction

Northern and Southern California Outer Continental Shelf Areas

Evaluation of Methodology

Conclusions

South Florida Basin Outer Continental Shelf, South of 260° Latitude

Evaluations of Methodology.

Geology/Geophysics Data Base

Resource Assessment Procedures

Appendix B Adequacy of the Data Base for Hydrocarbon Estimates of the Georges Bank Area of the Nort ...

Preface

1 Introduction

Location

Geologic History

2 Geological and Geophysical Data Base

3 Petroleum Geology

4 Petroleum Resource Assessment of the Georges Bank

5 Conclusions

6 Recommendations

Data Needs

Reconsideration of the Resource Evaluation

References

Appendix C The Effects of Play Mixing in the Permian Basin

Play 5

Analysis of Clusters 361 and 363

Play 6

Analysis of Cluster 375 and the Combination of Clusters 369 and 371

Analysis of Clusters 373 and 375 and the Combination of the Two

Reference

Appendix D Background: Components of the Petroleum Resource Base

In-Place Resources

Cumulative Production

Proved Reserves

Indicated and Inferred Reserves

Undiscovered Resources

The Division of Resources into Conventional and Unconventional Categories

Conventional Resources

Unconventional Resources

Resources in Relation to Production.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN:

9786610203581

9781280203589

1280203587

9780309595162

0309595169

9780585143293

0585143293

OCLC:

228064157