The National energy modeling system / Committee on the National Energy Modeling System, Energy Engineering Board, Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems in cooperation with the Committee on National Statistics, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

National Research Council Staff, Corporate Author.

Contributor:

National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on the National Energy Modeling System.

National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on National Statistics.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Energy policy--United States--Econometric models.

Energy policy.

Power resources.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (164 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : National Academy Press, 1992.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

This book addresses the process and actions for developing enhanced capabilities to analyze energy policy issues and perform strategic planning activities at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) on an ongoing basis. Within the broader context of useful analytical and modeling capabilities within and outside the DOE, this volume examines the requirements that a National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) should fulfill, presents an overall architecture for a NEMS, identifies data needs, and outlines priority actions for timely implementation of the system.

Contents:

The National Energy Modeling System

Copyright

DEDICATION

Contents

Acknowledgments

Executive Summary

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

PRINCIPAL RECOMMENDATIONS

Timing of NEMS Development

NEMS Management

NEMS Design

1 INTRODUCTION

STUDY GENESIS AND BACKGROUND

SCOPE OF THE STUDY

ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT

2 NEMS REQUIREMENTS

THE ROLE OF MODELS IN POLICY ANALYSIS AND PLANNING

Energy Policy-Related Models

General Approaches To Modeling

The Benefits of Models

The Limitations of Models

THE MISSION AND FUNCTIONS OF DOE AND EIA

Strategic Analysis

Data Collection and Information Dissemination

R&amp

D Program Planning

Current Modeling Capabilities Within DOE and EIA

NEMS IN THE BROAD CONTEXT OF POLICY ANALYSIS

Keeping NEMS Outward Looking

Capabilities Outside DOE

THE NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY EXPERIENCE

Overview of the NES Exercise

Committee View of the NES Analysis

Illustrative Policies

DIRECTIONS IN ENERGY MODELING

General Trends

Quantification of Uncertainty

Long-Term Forecasting

NEMS REQUIREMENTS

FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

3 NEMS ARCHITECTURE

OVERVIEW

MODULAR ARCHITECTURE

Advantages of Modular Systems

Disadvantages of Modular Systems

INTEGRATING MODEL OPERATION

PROPOSED MODULES

The Control Module

Fossil Fuel Supply Modules

Energy Conversion Modules

Renewable Energy Conversion Modules

The International Energy Module

The Interindustry Growth Model

Energy Demand Modules

Behavioral Information Requirements

Sectoral Information Needs

Information Needs for Policy Analysis

Quality and Timeliness of Data and Information

Reduced-Form Modules

Satellite Modules

Energy Security

The Environmental Module

Report Writers

NEMS COMPARED TO CURRENT DOE MODELING

NEMS TREATMENT OF CONCEPTUAL ISSUES.

Market Disequilibrium

Uncertainty

Contingent Strategies

The Formation of Expectations

Environmental Constraints

OPERATIONAL ISSUES FOR NEMS DEVELOPMENT

RECOMMENDATIONS

4 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NEMS

LEAD ORGANIZATION FOR THE NEMS

SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION

EMPLOYEE ENVIRONMENT

MANAGEMENT OF NEMS DEVELOPMENT

MOTIVATION AND USEFULNESS

APPENDIX A-1 SCOPE OF WORK

THE PROBLEM

ANALYSIS OF THE PROBLEM

PROPOSED EFFORT

First Part of Review

Second Part of Review

ANTICIPATED RESULTS

REPORTING

APPENDIX A-2 COMMITTEE CHARGE

APPENDIX B FIRST ADVISORY REPORT

COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL ENERGY MODELING SYSTEM

Staff

I. INTRODUCTION

II. FINDINGS

A. Background

B. General Observations

C. Specific Comments

1. Long-Run Modeling and Forecasting

2. The FOSSIL2 Model

3. Adequacy of Data

4. Dealing with Uncertainty

III. CONCLUDING REMARKS

BIBLIOGRAPHY

APPENDIX C THE MISSION AND FUNCTIONS OF THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

ESTABLISHMENT OF THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

THE SECRETARY OF ENERGY AS CABINET SPOKESMAN

THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AS STRATEGIC PLANNER

THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY'S INFORMATION ROLE

THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AS R&amp

D MANAGER

APPENDIX D ILLUSTRATIVE CASE STUDIES

CASE STUDY 1: AUTOMOBILE EFFICIENCY STANDARDS

Establishing the Need for Policy Intervention

Analytical Requirements

CASE STUDY 2: NATURAL GAS PIPELINE CERTIFICATION

The Role of Analysis

CASE STUDY 3: MAGLEV R&amp

D

The Analytic Process and the Use of NEMS

SUMMARY

APPENDIX E A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DOE AND EIA MODELS

PROJECT INDEPENDENCE EVALUATION SYSTEM.

INTERMEDIATE FUTURE FORECASTING SYSTEM

LONG-TERM ENERGY ANALYSIS PROGRAM

SHORT-TERM INTEGRATED FORECASTING SYSTEM

FOSSIL2

APPENDIX F MEETINGS AND ACTIVITIES

JULY 31 &amp

AUGUST 1, 1990

SEPTEMBER 20 &amp

21, 1990

NOVEMBER 6, 1990

NOVEMBER 8 AND 9, 1990

JANUARY 17 AND 18, 1991

FEBRUARY 28 AND MARCH 1, 1991

APRIL 18 AND 19, 1991

JUNE 6 AND 7, 1991

JULY 15 AND 17, 1991

JULY 25 AND 26, 1991

OCTOBER 4, 1991

REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Includes bibliographical references (p.141-152).

ISBN:

9786610203277

9781280203275

1280203277

9780309597999

0309597994

9780585145020

0585145024

OCLC:

559292779