Reconciling observations of global temperature change / Panel on Reconciling Temperature Observations, Climate Research Committee, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources, National Research Council.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

National Research Council (U.S.). Panel on Reconciling Temperature Observations.

Contributor:

United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Series:

Compass series (Washington, D.C.)

The compass series

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Global temperature changes--Observations.

Global temperature changes.

Upper air temperature--Measurement.

Upper air temperature.

Atmospheric temperature--Measurement.

Atmospheric temperature.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (101 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : National Academy Press, c2000.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

An overall increase in global-mean atmospheric temperatures is predicted to occur in response to human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping ''greenhouse gases." The most prominent of these gases, carbon dioxide, has increased in concentration by over 30% during the past 200 years, and is expected to continue to increase well into the future. Other changes in atmospheric composition complicate the picture. In particular, increases in the number of small particles (called aerosols) in the atmosphere regionally offset and mask the greenhouse effect, and stratospheric ozone depletion contributes to cooling of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. Many in the scientific community believe that a distinctive greenhouse-warming signature is evident in surface temperature data for the past few decades. Some, however, are puzzled by the fact that satellite temperature measurements indicate little, if any, warming of the lower to mid-troposphere (the layer extending from the surface up to about 8 km) since such satellite observations first became operational in 1979. The satellite measurements appear to be substantiated by independent trend estimates for this period based on radiosonde data. Some have interpreted this apparent discrepancy between surface and upper air observations as casting doubt on the overall reliability of the surface temperature record, whereas others have concluded that the satellite data (or the algorithms that are being used to convert them into temperatures) must be erroneous. It is also conceivable that temperatures at the earth's surface and aloft have not tracked each other perfectly because they have responded differently to natural and/or human-induced climate forcing during this particular 20-year period. Whether these differing temperature trends can be reconciled has implications for assessing: how much the earth has warmed during the past few decades, whether observed changes are in accord with the predicted response to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere based on model simulations, and whether the existing atmospheric observing system is adequate for the purposes of monitoring global-mean temperature. This report reassesses the apparent differences between the temperature changes recorded by satellites and the surface thermometer network on the basis of the latest available information. It also offers an informed opinion as to how the different temperature records should be interpreted, and recommends actions designed to reduce the remaining uncertainties in these measurements.

Contents:

Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change

Copyright

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

PREFACE

Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

PART I-OVERVIEW AND CONCLUSIONS

1-Introduction

2-Background

3-Findings

4-Recommendations

PART II-TECHNICAL BACKGROUND

5-Introduction

6-Surface Temperature Observations

SUMMARY OF TRENDS

SOURCES OF UNCERTAINLY IN TREND ESTIMATES

EFFORTS TO CORRECT THE PROBLEMS

7-MSU Observations

INTRODUCTION

MSU TEMPERATURE TRENDS

SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN TREND ESTIMATES

8-Radiosonde Observations

Background

Data Homogeneity Problems

Variety of Methods of Estimating Global Trends in Layer-Mean Temperatures

9-Trend Comparisons

COMPARISONS BETWEEN MSU AND RADIOSONDE DATA SETS

EVIDENCE CONCERNING SURFACE VERSUS TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE TRENDS

INTERPRETATION OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OBSERVED SURFACE AND TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE TRENDS

INSIGHTS DERIVED FROM MODEL SIMULATIONS

CONCLUDING REMARKS

REFERENCES

APPENDIXES

Appendix A-Biographical Information on Panel Members

Appendix B-Acronyms and Abbreviations.

Notes:

"Support for this project was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Contract No. 50-DKNA-7-90052 and by Alcoa"--T.p. verso.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 72-78).

ISBN:

9786610185573

9780309183727

0309183723

9781280185571

1280185570

9780309594004

0309594006

9780585265919

0585265917

OCLC:

45732773