Making climate forecasts matter / Paul C. Stern and William E. Easterling, editors ; Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Stern, Paul C., 1944-

Easterling, William E.

National Research Council (U.S.). Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Climatic changes--Social aspects.

Climatic changes.

Weather forecasting--Social aspects.

Weather forecasting.

Long-range weather forecasts--Social aspects.

Long-range weather forecasts.

Physical Description:

xii, 175 p. : ill.

Edition:

1st ed.

Other Title:

Climate forecasts

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : National Academy Press, c1999.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been used--and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.

Contents:

Making Climate Forecasts Matter

Copyright

Contents

Preface

MAKING CLIMATE FORECASTS MATTER

Summary

POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION

DISSEMINATION OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION

CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATIC VARIATIONS AND OF CLIMATE FORECASTS

1 Climate Variability, Climate Forecasting, and Society

CLIMATE VARIATION AND SOCIETY

Use of Climate Knowledge to Improve Well-Being

When Climate Becomes Hazardous

Climate Sensitivity and Vulnerability

The Potential Usefulness of Climate Forecasts

STRUCTURE OF THIS BOOK

2 Climate Forecasting and Its Uses

WEATHER AND CLIMATE

HOW SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL CLIMATE FORECASTS ARE MADE

The Weather Forecasting Paradigm

What Is Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasting?

Why Is Climate Predictable?

How Have Climate Forecasts Been Made Previously?

How Are the Forecasts Made by Numerical Models?

Which Quantities Are Forecast?

How Are the Forecasts Evaluated?

How Good Are the Forecasts?

Problems and Prospects for Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Prediction

TOWARD USABLE KNOWLEDGE

From Tropical Pacific SST to Other Quantities

Uses of ENSO Nowcasts

Specific ENSO Forecast Needs-Time and Space Resolution

Using ENSO Forecasts

Possible New Directions in Climate Forecasting

Non-ENSO Bases for Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts

The Potential to Develop Leading Climate Indicators

Processes for Identifying Usable Knowledge

FINDINGS

3 Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climatic Variation

COPING IN WEATHER-SENSITIVE SECTORS

Agriculture

Fishery Management

Forests and Other Ecosystems

Water Supply and Flood Management

Human Health

Other Weather-Sensitive Sectors

INSTITUTIONS FOR COPING WITH CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Disaster Insurance and Reinsurance

Emergency Preparedness and Response.

Market Mechanisms

4 Making Climate Forecast Information More Useful

USEFUL INFORMATION THAT CLIMATE FORECASTS MIGHT PROVIDE

RESPONSES TO PAST CLIMATE PREDICTIONS

Drought Forecasts in the Yakima Valley

ENSO-based Forecasts in Northeast Brazil, 1991-1992 and 1996

The Credibility of Famine Early Warning Systems

INDIRECT SOURCES OF INSIGHT INTO RESPONSES TO CLIMATE FORECASTS

Beliefs About Weather and Climate

Human Information Processing and Climate Information

Organizational Responses to New Information

Insights from Analogous Types of Information Transmission

General Principles for Designing Information Programs

Alternative Models for Designing Information Programs

5 Measuring the Consequences of Climate Variability and Forecasts

ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIATIONS

A Conceptual Model of the Effects of Climate Variability

Current Scientific Capability

Estimating Biophysical Impacts That Constrain Human Systems

Research Based on Observations of Decision Making

Simulations of Decision Making

Challenges in Estimating the Impacts of Climate Variability

ESTIMATING THE VALUE OF CLIMATE FORECASTS

What Kinds of Benefit Can Climate Forecasts Provide?

A Conceptual Approach to Estimating the Value of Forecasts

Current Scientific Capability in Valuing Climate Forecasts

Research Based on the Use of Actual Climate Forecasts

Simulations of Climate Forecast Value

Challenges in Estimating the Value of Forecasts

6 Scientific Priorities

Climate Forecasting and Its Uses

Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variation

The Potential of Climate Forecasts

Measuring the Consequences of Climate Variability and Forecasts

General

SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS

Potential Benefits of Climate Forecast Information.

Improved Dissemination of Forecast Information

Consequences of Climatic Variability and of Forecasts

The Value of Studying Past Climate Fluctuations and Forecasts

References

About the Authors

Index.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Includes bibliographical references (p. 142-159) and index.

ISBN:

9786610185979

9780309173407

030917340X

9781280185977

128018597X

9780309593199

0309593190

9780585057866

0585057869

OCLC:

923262071