Forecasting demand and supply of doctoral scientists and engineers : report of a workshop on methodology / Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, National Research Council.

Format:

Book

Conference/Event

Author/Creator:

National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Methods of Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers.

Conference Name:

Workshop on Improving Models of Forecasting Demand and Supply for Doctoral Scientists and Engineers (1998 : Washington, D.C.)

Series:

Compass series (Washington, D.C.)

The compass series

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Scientists--Supply and demand--United States--Forecasting.

Scientists.

Engineers--Supply and demand--United States--Forecasting.

Engineers.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (104 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : National Academy Press, c2000.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

This report is the summary of a workshop conducted by the National Research Council in order to learn from both forecast makers and forecast users about improvements that can be made in understanding the markets for doctoral scientists and engineers. The workshop commissioned papers examined (1) the history and problems with models of demand and supply for scientists and engineers, (2) objectives and approaches to forecasting models, (3) margins of adjustment that have been neglected in models, especially substitution and quality, (4) the presentation of uncertainty, and (5) whether these forecasts of supply and demand are worthwhile, given all their shortcomings. The focus of the report was to provide guidance to the NSF and to scholars in this area on how models and the forecasts derived from them might be improved, and what role NSF should play in their improvement. In addition, the report examined issues of reporting forecasts to policymakers.

Contents:

Front Matter

Preface

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Contents

Executive Summary

C H A P T E R 1 Background

C H A P T E R 2 Models of the Demand for Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: History and Problems

C H A P T E R 3 Objectives and Approaches of Forecasting Models

C H A P T E R 4 Neglected Margins of Adjustment: Substitution and Quality

C H A P T E R 5 Presentation of Uncertainty and Use of Forecasts with Explicit Uncertainty

C H A P T E R 6 Summary and Recommendations

References

A P P E N D I X A workshop AGENDA

A P P E N D I X B Biographical Information on Workshop Participants

A P P E N D I X C workshop participants.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Includes bibliographical references (p. 61-63).

ISBN:

9780309171823

0309171822

9780309514910

0309514916

OCLC:

614716492