Food aid projections for the decade of the 1990s : report of an ad hoc panel meeting, October 6 & 7, 1988 / Board on Science and Technology for International Development, Office of International Affairs, National Research Council.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

National Research Council (U.S.). Board on Science and Technology for International Development.

Hopkins, Raymond F.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Food relief--Forecasting.

Food relief.

Food supply--Forecasting.

Food supply.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (x, 183 pages) : illustrations

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : National Academy Press, [1989]

Language Note:

English

Summary:

Presents the results of a meeting held by the Board on Science and Technology for International Development. At this meeting, six groups of modelers presented their estimates of the food aid/food commodity trade picture during 1991-2000, based on their own database and assumptions about trends in global policy, climate, population, and economics.

Contents:

Food Aid Projections for the Decade of the 1990s

Copyright

Preface

Contents

Executive Summary

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

DEFINITIONS OF FOOD AID

METHODOLOGIES

DEMOGRAPHIC CONSIDERATIONS

NUTRITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

ESTIMATES COMPARED

SHOCKS THAT COULD AFFECT FUTURE PROJECTIONS

Weather and Climate

Other External Factors

Food Aid Projections for the 1990s: Workshop Proceedings

INTRODUCTION

DEFINITIONS

METHODOLOGY

FOOD COMMODITY TRADE AND AID FORECASTING

OUTPUT OF THE MODELS

PRESENTATION OF THE IFPRI FIGURES

Hannah Ezekiel, International Food Policy Research Institute

PRESENTATION OF FAO FIGURES

Richard Perkins, Commodities and Trade Division

PRESENTATION OF WORLD BANK FIGURES

Ronald Duncan, International Commodity Markets Division

PRESENTATION OF THE FAPRI FIGURES

W. Meyers, Center for Agriculture and Rural Development, Iowa State University

PRESENTATION OF USDA FIGURES

R. Nightingale and R. Trostle, Economic Research Service

PRESENTATION OF IIASA FIGURES

K. Frohberg, OECD, Paris

MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT COMMENTARY

Lawrence Klein, Economics Department, University of Pennsylvania

DEMOGRAPHIC CONSIDERATIONS COMMENTARY

Robert Chen, Alan Shawn Feinstein World Hunger Program

NUTRITIONAL CONTEXT COMMENTARY

Per Pinstrup-Andersen, Food and Nutrition Policy Program, Cornell University

TECHNICAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT

Donald Plucknett, Senior Scientific Adviser, World Bank

CLIMATIC IMPACT CONTEXT

Norman J. Rosenberg, Climate Resources Program, Resources for the Future

CLIMATE CHANGE

DROUGHT IMPACT

AFRICAN REGIONAL CONTEXT

Christopher Delgado, IFPRI

ESTIMATING FOOD AID

Estimates

USDA Projection to 2000

World Bank Projection

IIASA/BLS Estimate

IFPRI Estimate

Nutritional Need Estimates

FAO Estimate.

POINTS OF CONSENSUS REACHED BY THE WORKSHOP

REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY

Appendix A Medium Term Estimates of Demand-Based Food Aid Requirements and Their Variability

1 INTRODUCTION

Scope of Study

Nature of Food Aid

Estimation of Food Aid Requirements

The Basic Model

Cereal Exports and Commercial Cereal Imports

Changes in Scope and Methodology

2 TREND ESTIMATES

High and Low Estimates

The Basic Estimate

Food Aid and Commercial Imports

Food Aid Needs by Country Income Class

Food Aid for Low Income Countries and Commercial Imports

3 VARIABILITY OF FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS

Variability in Individual Countries

Variability in Country Groups

REFERENCES

Appendix B Food Aid Requirements of Developing Countries

Results of the Reference Run

Impact of Trade Liberalization on Hunger

Impact of Aid on Hunger

Appendix C Commodity Market Outlook and Trade Implications Indicated by the FAPRI Analysis

MODEL DESCRIPTION

ASSUMPTIONS

Macroeconomic Assumptions

Farm Policy Assumptions

Yield Assumptions

COMMODITY MARKET PROJECTIONS

DETAILED REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS

Africa and Middle East

Latin America

Asia

Centrally Planned Economies

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

DOCUMENTATION AND REFERENCES

Appendix D Outlook for Grains and Soybeans to 2000

SIMULATION RESULTS

CONCLUSIONS

Appendix E Workshop Statement

ESTIMATION OF FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS: SOME BASIC ISSUES

NUTRITION-BASED ESTIMATES OF FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS

FAO'S LONG-TERM AGRICULTURAL PROJECTION MODEL: AGRICULTURE TOWARD 2000

FAO'S MEDIUM-TERM COMMODITY PROJECTIONS: THE WORLD FOOD MODEL

ANNEX: EXCERPTS FROM AGRICULTURE: TOWARD 2000

Methodology of Projections: A Summary Note

Evaluation of Production Projections.

Final Adjustments

Input Requirements

Employment and Mechanization

Investments

Appendix F Food Aid Needs during the 1990s

GLOBAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY FACTORS

World Demand

World Supply

World Trade Prospects

Excess Capacity Remains

Prices

OUTLOOK FOR DEMAND, SUPPLY, AND TRADE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Demand in Developing Countries

Supply in Developing Countries

Natural Resource and Technology Concerns

Trade Prospects for Developing Countries

Appendix G A Discussion of Long-Term Agricultural Commodity Forecasts and Food Aid Needs

PREFACE

MODEL DESIGN AND SCOPE

POLICY IMPLEMENTATION

MODEL INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS

MODELS RESULTS AND LONG TERM OUTLOOK

Production

Trade

Food Aid Needs

CONCLUSION

REFERENCES.

Notes:

Panel chairman: Raymond F. Hopkins.

Includes bibliographies.

ISBN:

9786610246557

9781280246555

1280246553

9780309582674

0309582679

9780585168456

0585168458

OCLC:

70720398