Managing water resources in the West under conditions of climate uncertainty : proceedings of a colloquium, November 14-16, 1990, Scottsdale, Arizona / Committee on Climate Uncertainty and Water Resources Management, Water Science and Technology Board, Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Climate Uncertainty and Water Resources Management.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Water-supply--West (U.S.)--Congresses.

Water-supply.

Climatic changes--West (U.S.)--Congresses.

Climatic changes.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (358 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : National Academy Press, 1991.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

The question of whether the earth's climate is changing in some significant human-induced way remains a matter of much debate. But the fact that climate is variable over time is well known. These two elements of climatic uncertainty affect water resources planning and management in the American West. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty examines the scientific basis for predictions of climate change, the implications of climate uncertainty for water resources management, and the management options available for responding to climate variability and potential climate change.

Contents:

MANAGING WATER RESOURCES IN THE WEST UNDER CONDITIONS CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY

Copyright

Dedication

Preface

Contents

1 Overview

SHARING WATER RESOURCES

THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Implications of Climate Variability for Management

MANAGEMENT RESPONSES TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY

PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT IN WATER RESOURCE DECISIONMAKING

MANAGING WESTERN WATER UNDER PRESENT VARIABILITY AND FOR AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE

Research, Development, and Institutional Issues

Opportunities for the Bureau of Reclamation

REFERENCES

2 Sharing Water Resources with Future Generations

RELATING THE RIGHTS AND OBLIGATIONS OF THE PRESENT GENERATION TO OTHER GENERATIONS AND TO THE NATURAL SYSTEM

PRINCIPLES OF INTERGENERATIONAL EQUITY

AN INTERGENERATIONAL APPROACH TO WATER RESOURCE PROBLEMS

Water Resource Problems with Intergenerational Impacts

Applying Intergenerational Principles to Water Resource Problems

INTERGENERATIONAL RIGHTS AND OBLIGATIONS

STRATEGIES FOR INCORPORATING INTERGENERATIONAL INTERESTS INTO DECISIONS AFFECTING WATER RESOURCES

NOTES

3 The Science of Climate Change and Climate Variability

4 Primer on Climate Change

INTRODUCTION

THE BASIS FOR CONCERN ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

THE CLIMATE SYSTEM AND THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

HOW MUCH WILL OUR HOUSE WARM UP?

CONSTRAINING POSSIBLE FUTURES THROUGH MODELS

PRESENT GUIDANCE FROM CLIMATE MODELS AND OTHER ARGUMENTS CONCERNING WESTERN WATER

CONCLUSION

5 Climate Change and Climate Variability: The Climate Record

THE POTENTIAL FOR GLOBAL WARMING

THE 1988 DROUGHT

WEATHER VERSUS CLIMATE

CLIMATE OBSERVATIONS

Surface Temperatures

Precipitation

MAJOR FINDINGS FROM THE OBSERVATIONAL RECORD

COMPARISON WITH MODEL RESULTS FOR GREENHOUSE GAS INCREASES.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

6 Climate Change and Climate Variability: The Paleo Record

WHAT HAS BEEN FOUND SO FAR FROM THE STUDY OF PAST CLIMATE?

Ocean Sediments

Milankovitch's Four Frequencies

Polar Ice

The Western Climate

Rapid Climate Shifts

TREE RINGS AS HYDROLOGIC INDICATORS

Spatial Patterns of Drought From Tree-Ring Networks

Basin-Specific Streamflow Reconstructions

Uncertainties in Regional Water Supplies

CONCLUSIONS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

7 Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide Levels and Climate Change on Plant Growth, Evapotranspiration, and Water Resources

BACKGROUND: PLANT RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS

DIRECT EFFECTS OF CARBON DIOXIDE ON PHOTOSYNTHESIS, TRANSPIRATION, AND GROWTH OF PLANTS

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Plant Photosynthetic Mechanisms

Plant Growth Responses to Carbon Dioxide

Transpiration Responses to Carbon Dioxide

Streamflow Responses to Carbon Dioxide

Plant Water-Use Efficiency

CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON PHOTOSYNTHESIS, GROWTH, AND TRANSPIRATION

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF CARBON DIOXIDE AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Photosynthetic and Productivity Interactions

Evapotranspiration

ESTIMATING YIELD AND WATER REQUIREMENTS OF CROPS UNDER TWO CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

General Circulation Models

Modeling Crop Responses to Carbon Dioxide and Climate Changes

IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND PRECIPITATION FOR WATER RESOURCES

Adaptations and Evapotranspiration Requirements

Water Availability

SUMMARY

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

8 Hydrologic Implications of Climate Uncertainty in the Western United States

9 The Implications of Climatic Change for Streamflow and Water Supply in the Colorado Basin

RESULTS

Hydrologic (NWSRFS) Model

CRSS Model Results.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

10 Climate Uncertainty: Implications for Operations of Water Control Systems

THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN

WATER AVAILABILITY ESTIMATES

CURRENT COLORADO RIVER MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES

OPERATION DURING HIGH STREAMFLOWS: THE COLORADO RIVER SPRING FLOODS OF 1983

The Full River System

Physical Encroachment into the Flood Plain

Climate Variability

Conclusions for River Basin Management Under High Flow Conditions

SEVERE AND SUSTAINED DROUGHT IN THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN

The Analytical Model

Nature of the Deficit

Time Interval and Threshold Level of the Data

Drought Parameters for the Colorado River

Index-Sequential Hydrologic Sequences

Demand Assumptions

Comparison of Severe, Sustained Drought Simulations

Lake Powell

Lake Mead

Upper Basin Shortages

Lower Basin Shortages

Conclusions of Drought Analysis

Conclusions and Implications for Climate Change

11 Economic Consequences of Climate Variability on Water in the West

CHANGES IN VULNERABILITY TO HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY

Factors Tending to Reduce Vulnerability

Factors Tending to Increase Vulnerability

Uncertainties of Climate Change

ECONOMIC SENSITIVITY

Nature of the Economy

Slack in the System

Improved Management

Demand Management

Water Marketing

IMPLICATIONS OF A HOTTER AND DRIER CLIMATE: A CASE STUDY OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN

12 Western Water Law, Global Climate Change, and Risk Allocation

INTRODUCTION: WHAT THE DOOMSAYERS SAY

GLOBAL WARMING RESPONSE STRATEGIES: WHAT SHOULD WE BE DOING?

PRIOR APPROPRIATION: IS IT A RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM?

BUREAU OF RECLAMATION RESOURCES

Transfers

Reservoir Operation

New Interests

13 Water Resources Forecasting.

SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR WATER RESOURCES FORECASTING

Hydrologic Forecast Models

Extended Streamflow Prediction

WATER RESOURCES FORECASTING SERVICES

Existing Services

Nws Modernization

Example Applications of Warfs Technology

SCIENTIFIC OPPORTUNITIES

Models and Parameter Estimation

Gewex Continental-Scale International Project

Long-Range Weather Forecasting Improvements

Orographic Precipitation Analysis and Precipitation Forecasting

Data Base Improvements

Improvements in ESP

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

14 Some Aspects of Hydrologic Variability

15 Management Responses to Climatic Variability

16 Improvements in Agricultural Water Management

THE PRESSURES ON AGRICULTURE

THE CONTRIBUTION OF AGRICULTURE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

THE NEED FOR NEW KNOWLEDGE

AGRICULTURAL STRATEGIES FOR COPING WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

Dryland Agriculture

Irrigated Agriculture

Mixed Range Land and Crop Land

THE NEED FOR CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL INSTITUTIONS

17 Creative Water Management

WHAT IS WATER MANAGEMENT?

OBJECTIVES OF WATER MANAGEMENT

DIFFICULTIES IN CONTROLLING WATER

MANAGEMENT MEASURES

18 Weather Modification as a Response to Variations in Weather and Climate

THE SEEDING OF WINTER OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS

FACTORS INFLUENCING THE ACCEPTANCE OF CLOUD SEEDING

STATISTICAL EVALUATIONS

THE INFLUENCE OF PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY

THE SEARCH FOR LARGE-SCALE EFFECTS

RESEARCH ON WINTER OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS

THE AVAILABILITY OF SEEDABLE CLOUDS IN DRY PERIODS

19 Managing Water Supply Variability: The Salt River Project

BACKGROUND

Dams

Ground Water

SUPPLY VARIABILITY

RESPONSES TO SUPPLY VARIABILITY

SEARCHING FOR BACKUP SUPPLIES

CONCLUSIONS.

20 Public Involvement in Water Resources Decisionmaking in a Climate of Uncertainty

REFERENCE

21 The First Rough Draft of History: How the Press Reports on Global Warming

22 Water Use Efficiency as a Response to Climate Uncertainty

23 Climate Change, The Media, and Public Awareness

Appendix A Biographical Sketches of Steering Committee Members

Appendix B Biographical Sketches of Principal Contributors.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN:

1-280-20323-4

9786610203239

0-309-58418-3

0-585-14296-3

OCLC:

44966047