Criminal careers and "career criminals." Volume II / Alfred Blumstein [and three others], editors ; Panel on Research on Criminal Careers, Committee on Research on Law Enforcement and the Administration of Justice, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

National Research Council Staff, Corporate Author.

Contributor:

Blumstein, Alfred, editor.

National Research Council (U.S.). Panel on Research on Criminal Careers.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Crime analysis--United States.

Crime analysis.

Criminals--United States.

Criminals.

Criminal behavior, Prediction of.

Criminal statistics--United States.

Criminal statistics.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (1 volume) : illustrations

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, District of Columbia : National Academy Press, 1986.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

Volume II takes an in-depth look at the various aspects of criminal careers, including the relationship of alcohol and drug abuse to criminal careers, co-offending influences on criminal careers, issues in the measurement of criminal careers, accuracy of prediction models, and ethical issues in the use of criminal career information in making decisions about offenders.

Contents:

CRIMINAL CAREERS AND "CAREER CRIMINALS"

Copyright

Contents

Preface

1 Issues in the Measurement of Criminal Careers

ALTERNATIVE MEASUREMENT APPROACHES

CONVERGENCE OR DISCREPANCY IN ESTIMATES

Social Class

Race

EFFECTS OF RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY ON ESTIMATES

Reliability of Self-Reports of Crime

Validity of Self-Reports of Crime

Reverse Record Checks

SOURCES OF RESPONSE EFFECTS ON VALIDITY AND RELIABILITY

Interviewer Characteristics

Task Characteristics

Structural Characteristics

Question Characteristics

Respondent Characteristics

Characteristics of Serious, Chronic Offenders

Effects of Serious, Chronic Offender Characteristics on Responses

LIMITATIONS OF OFFICIAL RECORDS

RESEARCH STRATEGIES TO IMPROVE MEASUREMENT

CONCLUSION

REFERENCES

2 The Impact of Substance Abuse on Criminal Careers

OVERVIEW

Approach

Summary of Findings

CONCLUSIONS FROM THE EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ON DRUG USE AND CRIME

Drug Use and Crime Rates Among Youths and Adults

Studies of Youths

Studies of Adults

Diversity of Crimes Among Drug Users

Conclusion

Drug Use and Violent Crimes

Drug-Distribution Activities and the Measurement of Crime Rates

Onset of Drug Use and Crime: Does It Matter Which Occurred First?

Drug Use Among Arrestees

Marijuana and Crime-A Weak Link

PCP and Violent Crime-A Stronger Link

The Role of Hard-Drug Use in Crime

Interventions for Reducing Drug Use and Crime

Identifying High-Rate Drug Users

SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

What Is the Course of Drug Use and Crime in Persons Who Have Been Processed by the Criminal Justice ...

What Impact Does Reducing the Availability of Drugs Have on Drug Use and Crimes?.

What Is the Relationship Between Drug Use and Crime Among Females and Do Females Require Specific Ty ...

What Types of Crimes and Associated Problems Are Common to More Affluent Drug Users?

How Can Offenders Who Are Using Drugs Be Identified?

Assuming That Drug-Using Offenders Can Be Identified, Can This Information Predict Future Criminal B ...

Assuming That Drug Use by an Offender Is a Good Predictor of Future Criminal Behavior, How Should Th ...

How Can We Prevent the Onset of Serious Drug Use and Crime?

CONCLUDING COMMENTS

APPENDIX A

METHODOLOGIC PROBLEMS IN STUDYING SUBSTANCE ABUSE AND CRIME

RARITY OF HARD-DRUG USE IN THE GENERAL POPULATION

VALIDATING DRUG USE

EPISODIC NATURE OF HARD-DRUG USE

POLYDRUG USE AMONG HEAVY DRUG USERS

MEASURING DRUG USE AND CRIME

APPENDIX B

STUDIES OF DRUG ABUSE AND CRIME

Evaluation of the Calfornia Civil Addict Program (McGlothlin, Anglin, and Wilson, 1977)

Analysis of Drugs and Crime Among Arrestees in the District of Columbia (Wish, Klampp, et al., 1980)

Varieties of Criminal Behavior (Chaiken and Chaiken, 1982)

Criminality Among Heroin Addicts in Baltimore (Ball et al., 1981

Nurco, Cisin, and Balter, 1981a,b, ...

National Youth Survey (Elliott and Huizinga, 1984)

Economic Behavior of Street Opiate Users (Johnson et al., 1985)

Studies from the National Institute of Justice-Funded Interdisciplinary Research Center (IRC) for th ...

Additional Current Studies

3 The Relationship of Problem Drinking to Individual Offending Sequences

INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES

Definition and Measurement of Problem Drinking

Definition and Measurement of Criminal Careers

Study Populations

Polydrug Use

Gender and Race

Making Inferences About Alcohol Effects

ASSESSMENT OF THE LITERATURE

The Juvenile Period.

General-Population Studies

Delinquent-Population Studies

Etiology of Drinking and Crime in Juveniles

Summary: Juveniles

The Young Adult Period

General-Population Studies of Young Adults

Alcohol Problems and Criminality in "Captured" Samples of Young Adults

Discussion: Young Adults

Later Adult Years: Drinking and Crime

SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND IMPLICATIONS

How Much Crime Does Problem Drinking Explain?

Methodological Issues

Recommendations and Implications

4 Co-Offender Influences on Criminal Careers

Selective Incapacitation of Offenders

Age of Intervention

Target of Intervention Strategies

THE NATURE OF GROUP OFFENDING

SOME PRELIMINARY ISSUES

Crime Incidents, Their Victims, and Their Offenders

Lone and Group Offenders in Criminal Careers

Effects of Criminal Justice Processing on Estimates of Group Offending

BASIC PARAMETERS OF GROUP OFFENDING

Offending and Group Size

Age of Onset

Group Affiliation and Individual Rates of Offending

Duration of Accomplice Relationships

Stability of Group Affiliation

PATTERNS IN GROUP OFFENDING

Sex

Age

Type of Offense

Relationship Between Victims and Offenders

Territorial Concentration

Siblings in Offending

ROLE OF GROUPS IN RECRUITMENT FOR CO-OFFENDING

Structure of Delinquent Peer Networks

Structure of Adult Networks

Dual Processes of Recruitment in Groups

Recruitment into Offending Groups

Recruitment of Accomplices

Recruiter Effects on Offending

CHANGES IN THE GROUP COMPOSITION OF OFFENDING

MODELS OF CO-OFFENDING IN CRIMINAL CAREERS

GROUP OFFENDING AND DESISTANCE FROM CRIMINAL CAREERS

Empirical Studies of Desistance from Group Offending

Group Processes in Selective Attrition from Criminal Careers

Specific Deterrence.

Status Transitions

Disruption of Group Affiliation

INTERVENTION ISSUES AND GROUP OFFENDING

Probability of Being Caught in Co-Offending

Early Identification of Career Criminals

Sanctioning Group Offenders

Intervention Strategies and Group Offending

Group Recruitment and Replacement Processes

CONCLUDING NOTES

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

5 The Rand Inmate Survey: A Reanalysis

THE SECOND RAND INMATE SURVEY

Data and Methods

Purposes of the Rand Study

The Rand Results

Criticisms of the Rand Study

Ethical Concerns

Empirical Concerns

REANALYSIS

Estimating λ from the Rand Data

"Active" and "Inactive" Offenders

Determining Street Months

Determining Crimes Committed

Calculation of λ

The High-Frequency Offenders

Development of a Prediction Scale

Identifying the Seven Variables

Relationships Among Variables

Missing Data

Accuracy of Scale

Incapacitative Effects Using a Prediction Scale

The Incapacitative Effect of Incarceration

A Selective Incapacitation Model

Selecting Scale Cut Points

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

APPENDIX A: SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES

APPENDIX B: DESCRIPTION OF QUESTIONS USED TO CONSTRUCT THE SEVEN VARIABLES

APPENDIX C: CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL INCAPACITATIVE EFFECTS USING DATA REPORTED BY GREENWOOD

6 Accuracy of Prediction Models

PREDICTIVE DECISION MAKING

The Logic of Prediction

The Nature of Decisions

Problems of Measuring "Accuracy"

Reliability

Methods of Combining Information

The Base Rate

Selection Ratios

Representativeness of Samples

Cross-Validation

Measures of Predictive Accuracy

Other Problems Concerning "Accuracy"

RESEARCH EVIDENCE: THE POWER OF PREDICTION

Bail and Pretrial Release Decision/Prediction Studies

Descriptive Studies

Normative Studies.

Prosecution Decision Studies

Normative Studies

Sentencing Decisions

Parole Prediction-Decision Studies

COMMON CORRELATES

HOW SUCCESSFUL ARE PREDICTION-BASED SELECTION RULES?

APPLICATIONS OF PREDICTION IN STRUCTURING DISCRETION

Bail and Pretrial Release Prediction-Based Tools

Sentencing Decision Tools

Proposals for "Selective Incapacitation"

Sentencing Guidelines

Tools to Structure Parole Decision Making

The Salient Factor Score

The Iowa Instrument

Summary

DISCUSSION

Do Prediction Models Improve Criminal Justice Decisions?

Can Predictive Accuracy Be Improved?

Improved Reliabilities

Improved Measurement

Use of the Most Appropriate Analytic Methods

Statistical Bootstrapping

Theory-Driven Approaches to the Prediction Problem

Statistical-Subjective Bootstrapping

Attention to Ethical Concerns

Is Prediction Currently Accurate Enough to Be Useful?

7 Some Methodological Issues in Making Predictions

POINT-SCORING METHODS

PREDICTIVE POWER, CALIBRATION, AND SHRINKAGE OF PREDICTION EQUATIONS

Validation and Shrinkage

Shrinkage as a Statistical Effect-Cause (a)

Shrinkage in the Light of Changes in the Population-Cause (b)

Changes in the Regression Relationship-Cause (c)

Some Concluding Remarks

Practical Utility

Predictive Power

Prediction Errors

SAMPLE-REUSE METHODS

CONCLUSIONS

8 Purblind Justice: Normative Issues in the Use of Prediction in the Criminal Justice System

THE ANATOMY OF PREDICTION IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM

The Offense

The Offender

A Predictive Rule

A Consequential Decision

The Central Ethical Issues.

GENERAL NOTIONS OF JUSTICE AND STANDARDS OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM PERFORMANCE.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Includes bibliographical references at the end of each chapters.

Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (ebrary, viewed June 4, 2014).

ISBN:

9786610221790

9781280221798

1280221798

9780309568234

0309568234

OCLC:

919475315