Modeling cost and performance for military enlistment : report of a workshop / Bert F. Green, Jr. and Anne S. Mavor, editors ; Committee on Military Enlistment Standards, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Green, Bert F.

Mavor, Anne S.

National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Military Enlistment Standards.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Soldiers--Rating of--United States--Mathematical models--Congresses.

Soldiers.

United States--Armed Forces--Recruiting, enlistment, etc--Mathematical models--Congresses.

United States.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (172 pages)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, DC : National Academy Press, 1994.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

This book describes a cost/performance trade-off model useful for illustrating the effects of budget decisions on the quality of expected performance in the military enlisted force. The model links recruit quality to job performance on the one hand and personnel costs on the other. Understanding these linkages provides a clear rationale, based on performance and cost differences, for choosing applicants for military service. The book examines trends in the quality of military personnel from the beginning of the All-Volunteer Force in 1974 to the year 2000 and beyond. It discusses technical issues associated with the development of the various components of both cost and performance linkages and presents applications of the fully developed model.

Contents:

Modeling Cost and Performance for Military Enlistment

Copyright

Preface

Contents

Opening Remarks: The Nexus Between Science and Policy

JOB PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT AND ENLISTMENT STANDARDS

RECRUIT QUALITY: ISSUE OF SCIENCE OR POLICY

RECRUIT QUALITY, PERFORMANCE, AND COST

DENOUEMENT

APPRECIATION

Cost/Performance Trade-off Model

Part I: The Context of the Enlistment Standards Project

ORIGINS OF THE JPM PROJECT

PROVIDING COST/PERFORMANCE TRADE-OFFS IN LINKING ENLISTMENT STANDARDS TO JOB PERFORMANCE

WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS

REFERENCES

MILITARY MANPOWER QUALITY: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE

THE HISTORY OF THE QUALITY ISSUE

Quality and the All-Volunteer Force

The Search for Quality Standards

QUALITY REQUIREMENTS AND TRENDS

Quality Requirements, 1985-1989

Trends in Enlisted Accessions and Quality

Quality Supply and Demand

FUTURE TRENDS AND ACTIVE-RESERVE ISSUES

CONCLUSION

Part II Job Performance Measurement Issues

SETTING PERFORMANCE GOALS FOR THE DOD LINKAGE MODEL

THE PERFORMANCE METRIC: DESCRIPTION OF THE SCALE FOR HANDS-ON PERFORMANCE QUALIFICATION

Task Sampling

Task Scoring

Combining Scores from Different Tasks

A NORMATIVE APPROACH

Samples

Variables

Analyses

Findings

CRITERION-REFERENCED APPROACHES

Phase II Design

Phase II Results

Comparison of Task-DPG and Task-APG Results

Additional Results from Phase III

Summary of SYNVAL Standard-Setting Results

CONCLUSIONS

Summary of Findings

Implications for Further Research

Enhancing Performance Level Descriptions

Linking Job Characteristics to Performance Distribution Targets

Linking Performance Distribution Targets to Unit Effectiveness and Readiness

PREDICTING JOB PERFORMANCE SCORES WITHOUT PERFORMANCE DATA

VALIDITY GENERALIZATION.

SYNTHETIC VALIDITY

MULTILEVEL REGRESSION ANALYSIS

An Example

The Building Blocks of the Linkage Equation: Individual- and Job-Characteristic Variables

Derivation of the Individual-Characteristic Variables

Derivation of the Job-Characteristic Variables

Specification of the Linkage Equation

Structure of the Linkage Parameters

The Parameters for the Linkage Equation

Variance of Predicted Performance Scores

Deriving Job-Specific Equations

Validation of the Primary Linkage Equation

Method

Results

Shrinkage Formulae

Comparison of Adjusted and Cross-Validity R2 Values

Comparison of Validity Coefficients to the Literature

Summary

Discussion

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Part III: The Cost/Performance Trade-off Model

THE ACCESSION QUALITY COST/PERFORMANCE TRADE-OFF MODEL

INTRODUCTION

DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL

Variables: Accessions by Recruit Category and Occupation Group

Recruit Categories

Occupation Groups

Constraints: Performance Goals by Occupation

Definition of Performance

Measuring Performance

Setting Performance Goals

Constraints: Strength Goals

Objective Function: Recruiting, Training, and Compensation Costs

Recruiting Costs

Training and Compensation Costs

VALIDATION OF THE MODEL

Model Selections Versus Actual Accession Cohorts

Variation in Model Scenarios

Scenario 1: Lower Performance Goals

Scenario 2: A Higher Unemployment Rate

Scenario 3: Increase in Training Costs

Scenario 4: No Effect of Quality on Performances Scores

SUMMARY

TECHNICAL APPENDIX

The Optimization Problem

Objective Function

Constraints

Optimization Approach

Recruiting Cost Function

POLICY AND MANAGEMENT APPLICATIONS OF THE ACCESSION QUALITY COST/PERFORMANCE TRADE-OFF MODEL

INTRODUCTION.

CONGRESSIONAL DIALOGUE ON RECRUIT QUALITY STANDARDS

Importance of Linkages

Role of the Model

Hypothetical Accession Program

Proposed Recruiting Budget Reduction

Cost of Performance Increase

THE MODEL AS A PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION TOOL

Evaluation of a Recruiting Program

Feasibility

Efficiency

Robustness

Level of Performance

Developing the Service's Accession Programs

Setting Recruit Quality Goals and Resources

Adjusting for Specific Occupational Groups

Sensitivity to Recruiting Market Conditions

SETTING ENLISTMENT STANDARDS: ANALYSIS OF OCCUPATION-LEVEL ENLISTMENT STANDARDS

The Empirical Linkages: Linking Occupational Enlistment Standards to High Quality

Applying the Cost/Performance Trade-off Model to Enlistment Standards

Effect of Current Enlistment Standards on Recruit Quality and Cost

Reducing Enlistment Standards

Workshop Participants June 9-11, 1993

COMMITTEE ON MILITARY ENLISTMENT STANDARDS

OFFICE OF THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

CONTRACTORS' REPRESENTATIVES

AIR FORCE REPRESENTATIVES

ARMY REPRESENTATIVES

MARINE CORPS REPRESENTATIVES

NAVY REPRESENTATIVES

OTHER GUESTS

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL STAFF.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN:

1-280-19574-6

9786610195749

0-309-58653-4

0-585-14382-X

OCLC:

923263494