Learning to predict climate variations associated with El Nino and the southern oscillation : accomplishments and legacies of the TOGA program / Advisory Panel for the Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere Program (TOGA Panel), Climate Research Committee, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources, National Research Council.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

National Research Council (U.S.). Advisory Panel for the Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere Program.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Tropical Ocean/Global Atmosphere Program.

Climatic changes--Forecasting.

Climatic changes.

Southern oscillation.

El Niño Current.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (187 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : National Academy Press, 1996.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

The TOGA (Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere) Program was designed to study short-term climate variations. A 10-year international program, TOGA made El Nino a household word. This book chronicles the cooperative efforts of oceanographers and meteorologists, several U.S. government agencies, many other nations, and international scientific organizations to study El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It describes the progression from being unable to detect the development of large climate variations to being able to make and use rudimentary climate predictions, especially for some tropical countries. It examines the development of the TOGA Program, evaluates its accomplishments, describes U.S. participation in the program, and makes general recommendations for developing better understanding and predictions of climate variations on seasonal to interannual time scales.

Contents:

Learning to Predict Climate Variations Associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation

Copyright

PREFACE

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

CONTENTS

SUMMARY

1. INTRODUCTION

EL NINO AND THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

CONCEPT OF THE TOGA PROGRAM

PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT

2. GROWTH OF THE TOGA PROGRAM

ENSO: A COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE PHENOMENON

EMERGENCE OF A COHERENT EFFORT (1970-1984)

DEVELOPMENT OF THE TOGA PROGRAM

SCIENTIFIC PLAN FOR TOGA (1985)

3. COMPONENTS OF THE U.S. TOGA PROGRAM

OBSERVATIONS OF ENSO

TOGA Observing System

Volunteer Observing Ships

Surface Drifters

Tide-Gauge Network

TAO Array

Satellite Observations

Observing the Atmosphere and Ocean for TOGA

Sea Surface Temperature

Surface Wind and Stress

Subsurface Temperature.

Sea Level

Heat and Moisture Fluxes

Upper-Air Observations

Other Quantities

PROCESS STUDIES

Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE)

Central Pacific Experiment (CEPEX)

Australian Monsoon Experiment (AMEX) / Equatorial Monsoon Experiment (EMEX)

Line Islands Array (LIA)

Tropic Heat

Tropic Heat II

Tropical Instability Wave Experiment (TIWE).

North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) Study

Western Equatorial Pacific Ocean Circulation Study (WEPOCS)

Western Tropical Atlantic Experiment (WESTRAX)

Equatorial Pacific Experiment (EqPac)

MODELING ENSO

Ocean Models

Atmospheric Models

Coupled Models

PREDICTION

TOGA PRODUCTS

Reanalysis

TOGA CD-ROM Project

PROBLEMS AND SHORTCOMINGS

4. WHAT WE'VE LEARNED

OBSERVATIONS OF ENSO IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC

Climatologies

Evolution of Warm and Cold Events

The Warming During 1990-1994

EFFECTS OF ENSO ON THE REST OF THE GLOBE

Tropics

Middle Latitudes

ENSO and the Asian-Australian Monsoon

Carbon Dioxide and ENSO.

THEORIES OF ENSO

The Mechanism of ENSO

Irregularity of ENSO

Annual Cycle and ENSO

Optimal Growth of Disturbances and ENSO Predictability

WORKING IN A LARGER COMMUNITY

5. ORGANIZATION

U.S. ORGANIZATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS

NRC's TOGA Panel

Interagency Coordination of Resources

TOGA Project Office

Science Working Groups

Coordination with International TOGA

INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS

TOGA as an Integral Part of the WCRP

Scientific Steering Group (SSG)

International Project Office

Intergovernmental TOGA Board

6. APPLICATIONS OF ENSO PREDICTION

DEVELOPMENT OF APPLICATIONS AND ASSESSMENTS

APPLICATIONS OF REGIONAL ENSO FORECASTS

Peru

Northeast Brazil

Australia

Asia

Other Foreign Regions

United States

7. THE FUTURE

WHAT TOGA DIDN'T DO

OBSTACLES TO PROGRESS

Compartmentalization

Building and Maintaining the Infrastructure

AN INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE PREDICTION (IRICP)

GOALS AND CLIVAR

REFERENCES

APPENDICES

A. MEMBERS OF THE TOGA PANEL

B. TOGA PRODUCTS

C. ACRONYMS AND OTHER ABBREVIATIONS.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Includes bibliographical references (p. 141-164).

ISBN:

9786610192809

9780309176095

0309176093

9781280192807

1280192801

9780309588515

0309588510

9780585144580

0585144583

OCLC:

614577103