Natural climate variability on decade-to-century time scales / Climate Research Committee, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources, National Research Council.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

National Research Council (U.S.). Climate Research Committee.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Climatic changes--Congresses.

Climatic changes.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (644 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : National Academy Press, 1995.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

This volume reflects the current state of scientific knowledge about natural climate variability on decade-to-century time scales. It covers a wide range of relevant subjects, including the characteristics of the atmosphere and ocean environments as well as the methods used to describe and analyze them, such as proxy data and numerical models. They clearly demonstrate the range, persistence, and magnitude of climate variability as represented by many different indicators. Not only do natural climate variations have important socioeconomic effects, but they must be better understood before possible anthropogenic effects (from greenhouse gas emissions, for instance) can be evaluated. A topical essay introduces each of the disciplines represented, providing the nonscientist with a perspective on the field and linking the papers to the larger issues in climate research. In its conclusions section, the book evaluates progress in the different areas and makes recommendations for the direction and conduct of future climate research. This book, while consisting of technical papers, is also accessible to the interested layperson.

Contents:

Natural Climate Variability On Decade-to-Century Time Scales

Copyright

Preface

Contents

Executive Summary

THE CHALLENGE

FINDINGS FROM THE WORKSHOP PAPERS

RECOMMENDATIONS

1 Introduction

ASSESSING DECADE-TO-CENTURY-SCALE VARIABILITY

PURPOSE AND STRUCTURE OF THIS VOLUME

REFERENCE

2 The Atmosphere

Introduction

Atmospheric Observations

INTRODUCTION

IDENTIFYING CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS

THE FORCING AGENTS OF CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

DOCUMENTING NATURAL CLIMATIC VARIATIONS: HOW DIFFERENT IS THE CLIMATE OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY FROM THAT OF PREVIOUS…

ABSTRACT

THE MODERN (INSTRUMENTAL) RECORD

Characteristics of Decadal-Scale Changes of Area-Mean Temperature Indices

Changes in Temperature Variability

THE PRE-INSTRUMENTAL PERIOD

Tree-Ring Indicators

Oxygen Isotopes

Central England Temperature

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Commentary on the Paper of Diaz and Bradley

Discussion

VARIABILITY OF AFRICAN RAINFALL ON INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL TIME SCALES

METHODOLOGY

CONTINENTAL-SCALE PATTERNS OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY

DECADAL-SCALE FLUCTUATIONS

Fluctuations During Recent Decades

Teleconnections and Other Characteristics of Rainfall Variability: Comparison of Modern and Historic…

Fluctuations on Time Scales of Centuries

INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL

MECHANISMS OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY

Land-Surface Feedback in the Sahel

ON THE INITIATION AND PERSISTENCE OF THE SAHEL DROUGHT

ONSET OF THE SAHEL DROUGHT

PERSISTENCE OF THE SAHEL DROUGHT

THE FUTURE

CONTINENTAL SNOW COVER AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY

PHYSICAL BACKGROUND

SNOW COVER AND ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY: SHORT-TERM RELATIONSHIPS.

Observational Studies

Modeling Studies

SNOW COVER AND ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY: DECADE-TO-CENTURY TIME SCALES

Observational Studies

CONCLUSION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Commentary on the Paper of Walsh

DECADAL VARIATIONS OF SNOW COVER

IN SITU OBSERVATIONS

SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS

Short-Wave and Microwave Snow Charting

Hemispheric Snow Products: NOAA Weekly Charts

Hemispheric Snow Products: NASA Microwave Files

Northern Hemisphere Continental Snow Cover: 1972-1992

CONCLUSIONS

VARIABILITY AND TRENDS OF PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL OVER NORTH AMERICA

DATA SELECTION AND PROCESSING

Networks Used

Data Processing

Snowfall Scale Correction

CURRENT CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL

Snowfall Changes During the Last Four Decades

Annual Precipitation Changes During the Last Four Decades

Century-Long Precipitation Changes

Commentary on the Paper of Groisman and Easterling

ASYMMETRIC TRENDS OF DAILY MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE AND POSSIBLE CAUSES

BACKGROUND

OBSERVED CHANGES OF MEAN MAXIMUM, MINIMUM, AND DIURNAL RANGE

Spatial and Seasonal Patterns of Contemporary Trends

Longer-Term Variations

Relation to Variations of the Seasonal and Annual Extremes

Data Quality

INFLUENCES ON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE

Local Effects

Urban Heat Islands

Climatic Effects

LARGE-SCALE ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECTS

Greenhouse Gases

Tropospheric Aerosols

DECADAL OSCILLATIONS IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE AND ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE

ANALYSIS OF OSCILLATIONS IN AIR TEMPERATURE

DISCUSSION

ADDENDUM

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.

APPENDIX A

OBSERVED VARIABILITY OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION

INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS FROM UPPER-AIR DATA

Wave Trains

Mechanisms

INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS ASCERTAINED FROM SURFACE DATA

LONGER-TIME-SCALE VARIATIONS FROM PROXY DATA

SUMMARY

Commentary on the Paper of Karoly

SURFACE CLIMATE VARIATIONS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING WINTER, 1900-1989

DATA AND METHODS

Data

Methods

RESULTS

EOF Modes of Surface Temperature Variability

RELATION OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY TO THE SURFACE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION

Dipole Pattern

Gulf Stream Pattern

Commentary on the Paper of Deser and Blackmon

SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL FLUCTUATIONS IN SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER THE PACIFIC: EFFECTS OF MONTHLY WINDS AND HEAT FLUXES

OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE FOR ANOMALOUS AIR-SEA HEAT EXCHANGE

Bulk Formula Parameterizations

Errors in the Latent and Sensible Fluxes

Anomalous Variability of the Heat-Flux Components

Flux Anomalies and Atmospheric Circulation

Flux Anomalies and SST

OCEAN MODEL

Forcing Functions and Model Runs

Spin-up

Monthly Forcing Fields

Adjustment of the Marine Weather Data

Mechanisms of SST Variability

SST Response: Model vs. Observations

The 1976-1977 SST Shift

SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION

Commentary on the Paper of Cayan et al.

Atmospheric Observations Reference List

Atmospheric Modeling

THE MODELING HIERARCHY

VALIDATION METHODOLOGY

MODELING LOW-FREQUENCY CLIMATE VARIABILITY: THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND THE INTERPRETATION OF PALEOCLI ...

CLIMATE CHANGE SINCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL TIMES.

QUANTIFYING LOW-FREQUENCY VARIABILITY

Using Observational Data

Using Models

The Importance of Climate Sensitivity

INTERPRETING THE PALEOCLIMATIC RECORD

DETECTION OF FORCED CLIMATE SIGNALS

AN EXAMPLE

MEAN-SQUARE-ERROR FORMALISM

OPTIMAL-FILTER SOLUTION

PROPERTIES OF THE OPTIMAL FILTER

PILOT MODELS FOR CLIMATE SIGNAL DETECTION

SUNSPOT EXAMPLE

GREENHOUSE-WARMING DETECTION

CONSTRAINING POSSIBILITIES VERSUS SIGNAL DETECTION

REMARKS

MODELING THE POSSIBLE CAUSES OF DECADAL-TO-MILLENNIAL-SCALE VARIABILITY1

NATURAL VARIABILITY

VARIABILITY OF THE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM

SOLAR VARIABILITY

VOLCANIC AEROSOLS

TRACE-GAS VARIATIONS

Commentary on the Paper of Rind and Overpeck

NATURAL AND FORCED VARIABILITY IN THE CLIMATE RECORD

STRUCTURE AND SEASONALITY OF VARIATIONS IN SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE

THE SIGNAL OF EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION IN THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE FIELD

TRENDS IN SURFACE-AIR TEMPERATURE VERSUS TEMPERATURES ALOFT

LOWER STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE

Commentary on the Paper of Wallace

Atmospheric Modeling Reference List

3 The Ocean

Ocean Observations

HISTORY OF OCEAN OBSERVATIONS

INTO THE PRESENT

TOWARD THE FUTURE

MARINE SURFACE DATA FOR ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC FLUCTUATIONS ON INTERANNUAL-TO-CENTURY TIME SCALES

OUTLINE OF CREATION OF GISST 1.0

TECHNIQUES AND QUALITY CONTROLS USED FOR GISST

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF GISST 1.0

REVISIONS TO GISST

MARINE WINDS.

CLIMATE OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY" INTEGRATIONS

Commentary on the Paper of Parker et al.

DECADAL-SCALE VARIABILITY OF ICE COVER AND CLIMATE IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND GREENLAND AND ICELAND SEAS

NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP FOR AN INTERDECADAL ARCTIC CLIMATE CYCLE

THE 1980s GISA

CROSS-CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF SEA-ICE ANOMALIES IN THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND GREENLAND SEA

EVIDENCE FOR EARLIER GISAs

POSSIBLE CONNECTIONS OF GISAs WITH LOWER-LATITUDE INTERDECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

The Arctic as a Trigger for Lower-Latitude Fluctuations

Lower-Latitude Forcing of Arctic Fluctuations

Commentary on the Paper of Mysak

LONG-TERM SEA-LEVEL VARIATION

THE SEA-LEVEL RECORD

REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL ACCELERATION

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

Commentary on the Paper of Douglas

ACOUSTIC THERMOMETRY OF OCEAN CLIMATE1

TRANSIENT TRACERS AS A TOOL TO STUDY VARIABILITY OF OCEAN CIRCULATION

TRANSIENT TRACERS

Tritium/3He

Halocarbons

85Krypton

Bomb 14C

BOUNDARY CONDITIONS

TRACER RATIOS

Tritium/3He Age

CFC-11/CFC-12 Ratio

CFC-113/CFC-11 Ratio

CCl4/CFC-11 Ratio

Tritium/85Krypton Ratio

CFC-11/Tritium Ratio

EVALUATION OF TRANSIENT TRACER DATA

EXAMPLES OF TRACER TIME SERIES

Atlantic Deep Western Boundary Current

European Polar Seas

Commentary on the Paper of Schlosser and Smethie

A FEW NOTES ON A RECENT DEEP-WATER FRESHENING1

THE SALINITY DECREASE IN THE LABRADOR SEA OVER THE PAST THIRTY YEARS

1966 COMPARED TO 1992

TIME SERIES OF SALINITY CHANGES.

TEMPERATURE AND DENSITY CHANGES IN THE LABRADOR SEA WATER.

Notes:

"... the CRC sponsored a workshop on Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales, which was held September 21-25, 1992."--Preface.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

9786610192359

9780309175760

0309175763

9781280192357

1280192356

9780309568883

0309568889

9780585037363

0585037361

OCLC:

726823122