Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions: A gravity model analysis / Koji Kubo.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Kubo, Kōji, author.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic and Social Development.

Local Subjects:

Economic and Social Development.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (22 pages)

Contained In:

Asia-Pacific Development Journal Vol. 21, no. 1, p. 1-22 21:1<1 2411-9873

Place of Publication:

[Place of publication not identified] : United Nations, 2014.

System Details:

text file

Summary:

The easing of economic sanctions against Myanmar by Western countries in 2012 augmented the prospect that Myanmar would expand its exports. However, a sharp rise in natural resource exports during the time sanctions had been applied raises concern about the so-called Dutch disease. This study forecasts Myanmar's export potential by calculating counterfactual export values using a gravity model that takes into account the effects of natural resource exports on non-resource exports. Without taking into consideration the effects of natural resource exports, the counterfactual predicted values of non-resource exports during the period 2004-2011 are more than five times larger than those of actual exports. If these effects are taken into account, however, the predicted values are lower than those of actual exports. The empirical results imply that Dutch disease is more of a risk in Myanmar than it is in any other South-East Asian country.

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