Continuity and contingency in USAF posture planning / Alan J. Vick [and 5 others].

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Vick, Alan, author.

Contributor:

Project Air Force (U.S.), publisher, issuing body.

Series:

Research report (Rand Corporation) ; RR-1471-AF.

[Research report] ; RR-1471-AF

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

United States. Air Force--Operational readiness.

United States.

United States. Air Force.

Military policy.

Planning.

National security.

Defenses.

United States--Defenses--Planning.

National security--United States--Planning.

United States--Military policy--Planning.

Strategy.

Armed Forces--Operational readiness.

Military policy--Planning.

Military readiness--Planning.

National security--Planning.

Physical Description:

xvi, 129 pages : illustrations, maps ; 28 cm.

Other Title:

Continuity and contingency in United States Air Force posture planning

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND, [2016]

Summary:

"Good posture planning must distinguish powerful long-term trends from headline-grabbing events, have sufficient breadth to capture a wide range of possible posture demands, and be robust in the face of the inevitable uncertainties about where, when, and how U.S. interests will be challenged. U.S. Air Force (USAF) planners must design a posture that can evolve to meet changing global demands over a multidecade period, while making immediate adaptations to meet the demands of today's crises and contingencies. Planning processes typically are based on assumptions, making judgments about the relative probability and importance of demands and other factors, but at least some of these assumptions are bound to be wrong. The planning process should seek to reduce the importance of assumptions by designing a posture that is robust across many alternative futures, including diverse assumptions and a wide range of demands. Massive scenario generation and contingent event analysis can test future posture options across a wide range of demands. Planners should also combine sufficient posture "stickiness" to maintain enduring access in key locations and sufficient agility to surge from these locations to meet out-of-area demands and shrink back as operational demands end"--Publisher's description.

Contents:

Preface

Figures

Tables

Summary

Acknowledgments

Abbreviations

1. Introduction: Background

Policy Problem

Purpose of This Document

A Simple Model of U.S. Global Posture

Organization

2. Long-Term Conflict Trends: An Analysis of Historical Conflict Data: Conflict Trends: 1946 to 2014

Terrorist Attacks on the Rise Since 2004

Conclusions

3. Strategy Choices and Posture Implications: Grand Strategy

Military Strategy

4. Contingent Event Analysis: Introduction

Operational Vignette Development

Implications for USAF Posture

5. Path Dependence in USAF Posture: Background

Path Dependent Processes

Path Dependence and Posture: Individual Bases

Country

Region

Global Base Network

Path Dependence in the Post- old War Era

6. Path Aversion As a Constraint on Posture: Introduction

How Does Path Aversion Relate to Path Dependence?: Mechanisms and Dimensions of Path Aversion

The Vietnam Syndrome: A Case of Path Aversion in U.S. Foreign Policy?

The Vietnam Syndrome Weakens Under President Reagan: Central America (El Salvador)

Lebanon

Grenada

7. Conclusions: Findings: Conflict Trends Are a Limited Guide for Long-Term Posture Planning

Unforeseen Crises or Conflicts Have Been the Primary Agents of Change in U.S. and USAF Global Posture

USAF Posture Is Characterized by Long Periods of Stability, Punctuated by Periods of Rapid Change

Path Aversion Can Constrain Posture, but Effects Tend to Be Fleeting

Geography Remains Relevant to Long-Term Posture Planning

Recommendations

Final Thoughts

Appendix. Polya Models and Simulations

Bibliography.

Notes:

"RAND Project Air Force."

"RR-1471-AF"--Page 4 of cover.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 110-129).

ISBN:

083309565X

9780833095657

OCLC:

962254687