Essential demographic methods / Kenneth W. Wachter.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Wachter, Kenneth W.

Contributor:

JSTOR (Organization)

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Demography--Statistical methods.

Demography.

Demography--Mathematical models.

Population--Statistical methods.

Population.

Population--Mathematical models.

Population forecasting--Statistical methods.

Population forecasting.

Population forecasting--Mathematical models.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (xvi, 288 pages.)

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Massachusetts : Harvard University Press, 2014.

System Details:

text file

Contents:

1 Exponential Growth 5

1.1 The Balancing Equation 5

1.2 The Growth Rate R 9

1.3 The Exponential Curve 14

1.4 Models and Parameters 16

*1.5 Taylor Series 19

*1.6 Logistic Growth 22

1.7 Doubling Times 24

2 Periods and Cohorts 30

2.1 Lexis Diagrams 30

2.2 Period Person-Years Lived 33

2.3 The Crude Rate Model 35

2.4 The Infant Mortality Rate 37

*2.5 Person-Years and Areas 39

2.6 Cohort Person-Years Lived 41

2.7 The Stationary Population Identity 44

3 Cohort Mortality 48

3.1 Cohort Survival by Analogy 48

3.2 Probabilities of Dying 52

3.3 Columns of the Cohort Life Table 54

3.3.1 King Edward's Children 54

3.3.2 From _nL_x to e_x 59

3.3.3 The Radix 61

*3.4 Hazards and Survivors 63

*3.5 Gompertz Hazards 65

3.6 Annuities and Insurance 71

3.7 Mortality of the 1300s and 2000s 74

4 Cohort Fertility 79

4.1 Generational Renewal 79

4.2 Age-Specific Fertility 83

4.3 ASFRs and the NRR 84

4.4 Cohort Parity 86

4.5 Natural Fertility 89

5 Population Projection 98

5.1 Transition Matrices 98

5.2 Structural Zeros 101

5.3 The Leslie Matrix Subdiagonal 103

*5.4 The Leslie Matrix First Row 106

5.5 Projecting Fillies, Mares, Seniors 110

*5.6 Multi-State Tables 114

*5.7 Population Renewal 116

*5.8 Variable r and the Lexis Surface 119

6 Period Fertility 125

6.1 Period Measures 125

6.2 Period Age-Specific Fertility 128

6.3 Period NRR, GRR, and TFR 130

*6.4 Log(GRR) Plots 133

6.5 Age-Standardized Rates 136

*6.6 Tempo and Quantum 138

6.7 Princeton Indices 141

6.8 Coale and Trussell's M and m 145

7 Period Mortality 153

7.1 Period Lifetables 153

7.2 Gaps and Lags 157

7.3 The 1660s and Laws of Mortality 150

7.4 Graunt's Model Lifetable 162

7.5 Coale-Demeny Model Lifetables 164

7.6 Brass Relational Logit Models 165

*7.7 Lee-Carter Models 369

8 Heterogeneous Risks 174

8.1 Fleterogeneity 174

8.2 Multiple Decrements 175

*8.3 Competing Risks 179

*8.4 Calculations with Hazards 181

*8.5 Lifeluck, Risk, and Frailty 185

*8.6 Proportional Hazards 187

*8.7 Cox Regression Estimation 191

*8.8 Frailty Models 194

9 Marriage and Family 201

9.1 The Complexity of Marriage 201

9.2 First Marriage by Analogy 203

9.3 The SMAFM 206

*9.4 The Singulate Mean Formula 209

9.5 Marity 212

10 Stable Age Structures 218

10.1 Age Pyramids 218

10.2 Stationary Equivalent Populations 221

10.3 Consequences of Unchanging Rates 224

10.4 Stable Age Pyramids 229

10.5 The Many Faces of Lotka's r 233

*10.6 The Euler-Lotka Equation 235

*10.7 Life Left in Stable Populations 241

10.8 Population Momentum 243

11 Migration and Location 250

11.1 Spatial Demography 250

11.2 Flows of People 251

11.3 Concentrations 256

*11.4 Random Walks 262

11.5 GIS and Cartograms 265.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 279-283) and index.

Electronic reproduction. New York Available via World Wide Web.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

0674369750

9780674369757

Publisher Number:

99969977458

Access Restriction:

Restricted for use by site license.