Dynamics of housing in East Asia / Bertrand Renaud, Kyung-Hwan Kim, Man Cho.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Renaud, Bertrand, 1939- author.

Kim, Kyung-Hwan, author.

Cho, Man, 1957- author.

Series:

Real estate issues (Oxford, England)

RICS research

Real estate issues

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Housing--East Asia.

Housing.

East Asia.

Physical Description:

xv, 334 pages ; 23 cm.

Place of Publication:

Chichester, West Sussex, United Kingdom : John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2016.

Summary:

The US subprime housing meltdown has been at the epicenter of the massive global financial crises and the Great Recession of 2009 whose ripple effects continue to be felt around the world. The US experience demonstrates with impressive power the importance of real estate, and primarily of housing, for the stability of fully urbanized, high-income economies.What do we know about the price and output dynamics of real estate cycles in the east Asian context? What is the evidence about the interactions between housing and the wider economy across East Asia? Do East Asia experiences with housing volatility differ from western experiences?, Dynamics of Housing in East Asia provides a comparative analysis, focusing on the interactions between housing and the economy in China, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan, whose economies represent almost 25% of the global GDP. The book is structured in four parts. Part I (Chapters 1, 2 and 3) shows how organized, large urban housing systems emerged in East Asian economies during their economic growth take offs, which were also their decades of most rapid urbanization. Part II (Chapters 4,5 and 6) describes the contrasing housing systems of four of the five-income economies of East Asia today. These systems are now considerably larger, richer and much more differentiated than they were three decades ago. Part III (Chapters 7 and 8) presents a quantitative analysis of housing volatility and cycles across Eat Asia and Part IV (Chapters 9 and 10) complements and extends the understanding gained in this econometric analysis with a different analysis of housing cycles in China and Korea that centers on the incentives and behaviour of the six groups actors active in any housing cycle. The concluding Chapter II has two parts. First it sums up what we have learned about the distinctive characteristics of East Asian housing systems; and then it outlines five major factors that are profoundly changing the outlook for East Asian housing systems that are at new inflexion points; population aging: worsening income and wealth inequality; rising household debt levels; slower GDP growth rates as the new normal; and climate change and environmental sustainability in high density East Asian cities. This is the first book to evalute the organization, behaviour and performance of six major East Asian real estate markets. It draws on the best available theoretical and empirical literature on the analysis of housing cycles and helps understand factors affecting resilience and stability in real estate markets, as well as the different vulnerabilities in each housing system. Book jacket.

Contents:

Part I Foundations and Emergence of Modern East Asian Housing Systems 1

1 Introduction: Motivations of the Study 3

1.1 The first comparative study of housing dynamics across East Asian countries 3

1.2 Distinguishing features of East Asian economies 6

1.3 Organization of the book 12

2 Growth Take-Offs and Emerging EA Housing Systems 21

2.1 East Asia and the global experience with growth and development 22

2.2 East Asian growth policies from an urbanization and housing perspective 27

2.3 East Asia has had the highest tempos of urbanization in the world 35

2.4 The 50% urban population marker signaled the arrival of the growth transition 36

2.5 Exceptionally powerful land price increases during East Asian growth take-offs 40

3 From Vernacular Housing to Organized Housing Systems 45

3.1 Housing transformation from a Von Thunen to a Krugman urban dynamic 45

3.2 Stylized facts of organized East Asian urban housing markets 48

3.3 Four distinct East Asian housing strategies during the period 1950-1980 50

3.4 Patterns of EA government intervention in housing policies 53

3.5 Transition from the take-off stage to sustained long-term economic growth 69

Part II Current East Asian Housing Systems 73

4 East Asian Housing Systems Today: A Regional Overview 75

4.1 Basic quantitative East Asian comparisons 76

4.2 Volatility of housing output across East Asia 81

4.3 The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis triggered important structural reforms 83

4.4 Limited impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on East Asian housing 87

4.5 Six economies, six different housing system behaviors 90

5 Housing Volatility in Japan and Taiwan: A Study in Contrasts 93

5.1 Japan: housing underinvestment followed by multiple asset bubbles 94

5.2 Taiwan: a housing market with little government intervention 113

6 Housing Volatility in East Asian City States: Hong Kong and Singapore 123

6.1 Hong Kong: volatility in an open economy with a dual housing system 124

6.2 Singapore: where housing is part of macroeconomic policies 139

Part III Drivers of East Asian Housing Cycles: Evidence and Analysis 153

7 East Asian Housing Price Cycles: The Evidence 155

7.1 An overview of East Asian housing cycles 155

7.2 Country-specific housing price dynamics 161

7.3 Institutions and regulations shaping East Asian housing cycles 175

8 Drivers of East Asian Housing Price Cycles: An Analysis 187

8.1 What makes housing prices cyclical? An analytical overview 188

8.2 Quantifying the role of market fundamentals in EA price cycles 193

8.3 Two-way interactions between housing and the macroeconomy 201

Part IV The Six Actors of Housing Cycles in China and in Korea 207

9 Housing During China's Growth Transition 209

9.1 Impact of investment-led growth policies on households 210

9.2 The great housing boom during a unique decade 215

9.3 Incentives and behavior of the six key players in China's housing boom 220

9.4 Channels of interaction between housing and other sectors of the economy 243

10 Korea: Overcoming Housing Shortages and Stabilizing Housing Prices 247

10.1 An overview 247

10.2 Housing outcomes and housing cycles 249

10.3 Key issues in housing policy 258

10.4 Main players in Korean housing cycles and their behavior 266

10.5 Looking ahead: Korean housing at a crossroads 277

Part V Conclusions 279

11 Overall Findings and Outlook for East Asian Housing 281

11.1 Distinctive characteristics of East Asian housing systems 281

11.2 Issues and outlook for East Asian housing systems 289.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and indexes.

Other Format:

Online version: Cho, Man, 1957- author. Dynamics of housing in East Asia

ISBN:

9780470672662

0470672668

OCLC:

921167145