The business forecasting revolution : nation, industry, firm / F. Gerard Adams.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Adams, F. Gerard (Francis Gerard), 1929-2011.

Series:

Wharton executive library

Wharton executive library.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Business forecasting--Data processing.

Business forecasting.

Economic forecasting--Data processing.

Economic forecasting.

Physical Description:

xiii, 265 pages : illustrations ; 22 cm.

Place of Publication:

New York : Oxford University Press, 1986.

Summary:

Economic forecasting for business has become more and more challenging as the economy is exposed to new uncertainties, as new institutions emerge, as "new" economic theories develop, and as the objectives of economic policy are modified. Forecasting is more difficult, but it is also more important than ever for successful businesses.

At the same time that these new challenges arise, the field of economic forecasting is undergoing a technological revolution. The huge econometric models, which are used to predict economic trends, have in the past been stored only in mainframe computers, but are now accessible in microcomputer systems that can be used by "non-technical" executives. In this book, F. Gerard Adams shows how these newly accessible tools can be used to improve business planning. He shows how forecasting techniques can be applied to the economy as a whole, to the needs of specific industries, and to individual firms.

The uncertainty and volatility of the economic environment have led some to think that economic forecasting is pointless. But, as Adams shows, this is precisely the opposite of the truth: risk only increases the need for intelligent analysis and planning. As the tools of business forecasting move from the economist's office and the data center to the executive suite, the mastery of these techniques could provide a significant edge on the competition.

Contents:

1 The New Economic Environment: Challenge to Business 3

2 Economic Theories: "Old" and "New"

The Implications for Economic Forecasting 19

3 Measuring the Economic Environment

The Statistics 41

4 Forecasting

The Econometric Approach 74

5 Forecasting and Policy Analysis with Macroeconometric Models 106

6 The Track Record of Econometric Macro Forecasting 136

7 Linking the Industry to the National Model 160

8 Modeling the Industry 184

9 Macroeconometrics and Models of the Firm 214

10 Econometric Forecasting for Business

Perspectives on the Future 242.

Notes:

Includes bibliographies and index.

ISBN:

0195037006

OCLC:

12553598