Reliability growth : enhancing defense system reliability / Panel on Reliability Growth Methods for Defense Systems ; Committee on National Statistics ; Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education ; National Research Council.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

National Research Council (U.S.). Panel on Reliability Growth Methods for Defense Systems.

National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on National Statistics.

National Research Council (U.S.). Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

United States. Department of Defense.

United States.

United States--Armed Forces--Weapons systems.

Armed Forces.

Weapons systems.

United States--Armed Forces.

Physical Description:

xiii, 250 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm

Place of Publication:

Washington : National Academies Press, [2015]

Summary:

A high percentage of defense systems fail to meet their reliability requirements. This is a serious problem for the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), as well as the nation. Those systems are not only less likely to successfully carry out their intended missions, but they also could endanger the lives of the operators. Furthermore, reliability failures discovered after deployment can result in costly and strategic delays and the need for expensive redesign, which often limits the tactical situations in which the system can be used. Finally, systems that fail to meet their reliability requirements are much more likely to need additional scheduled and unscheduled maintenance and to need more spare parts and possibly replacement systems, all of which can substantially increase the life-cycle costs of a system. Beginning in 2008, DOD undertook a concerted effort to raise the priority of reliability through greater use of design for reliability techniques, reliability growth testing, and formal reliability growth modeling, by both the contractors and DOD units. To this end, handbooks, guidances, and formal memoranda were revised or newly issued to reduce the frequency of reliability deficiencies for defense systems in operational testing and the effects of those deficiencies. Reliability Growth evaluates these recent changes and, more generally, assesses how current DOD principles and practices could be modified to increase the likelihood that defense systems will satisfy their reliability requirements. This report examines changes to the reliability requirements for proposed systems; defines modern design and testing for reliability; discusses the contractor's role in reliability testing; and summarizes the current state of formal reliability growth modeling. The recommendations of Reliability Growth will improve the reliability of defense systems and protect the health of the valuable personnel who operate them.

Contents:

1 Introduction 19

Panel Charge and Scope of Study 19

Achieving Reliability Requirements: Key History and Issues 21

Key Terms in Defense Acquisition 25

The Stages of Defense Acquisition 27

A Hard Problem, but Progress Is Possible 29

Report Structure 30

2 Defense and Commercial System Development: A Comparison 31

Three Key Differences 31

Issues in an Incentive System for Defense Acquisition 33

A Perspective on Commercial Best Practices 34

3 Reliability Metrics 39

Continuously Operating Repairable Systems 39

Continuously Operating Nonrepairable Systems 43

One-Shot Systems 43

Hybrid Models 44

Assessment of Current DoD Practices 44

4 Reliability Growth Models 47

Concepts and Examples 47

Common DoD Models 51

DoD Applications 54

Implications 57

5 System Design for Reliability 63

Techniques for Design 66

Techniques to Assess Reliability Potential 72

Analysis of Failures and Their Root Causes 75

Two Approaches to Reliability Prediction 77

Redundancy, Risk Assessment, and Prognostics 79

6 Reliability Growth Through Testing 85

Basic Concepts and Issues 85

Reliability Testing for Growth and Assessment 87

7 Developmental Test and Evaluation 93

Contractor Testing 94

Basic Elements of Developmental Testing 94

Designed Experiments 96

Test Data Analysis 97

Reliability Growth Monitoring 102

8 Operational Test and Evaluation 105

Timing and Role of Operational Testing 105

Test Design 108

Test Data Analysis 109

The DT/OT Gap 111

9 Software Reliability Growth 117

Software Reliability Growth Modeling 118

Metrics-Based Models 124

Building Metrics-Based Prediction Models 128

Testing 130

Monitoring 131

10 Conclusions and Recommendations 135

Analysis of Alternatives 136

Requests for Proposals 139

An Outline Reliability Demonstration Plan 141

Raising the Priority of Reliability 143

Design for Reliability and Reliability Testing 144

Assessment of the Reliability of Electronic Components 146

Oversight of Software Development 149

Reliability Growth Modeling 150

Reliability Growth Testing 151

Modeling in Conjunction with Accelerated Testing 153

Design Changes 154

Information on Operational Environments 155

Acquisition Contracts 155

Delivery of Prototypes for Developmental Testing 156

Developmental Testing 157

Operational Testing 157

Intermediate Reliability Goals 159

Oversight and Research 163.

Notes:

Includes bibliographic references.

ISBN:

0309314747

9780309314749

OCLC:

905565660