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Climate change : identification and projections / Philippe de Larminat.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Larminat, Philippe de, author.
- Series:
- Focus series (London, England)
- Focus series
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Climatic changes--Forecasting.
- Climatic changes.
- Global temperature changes.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource.
- polychrome
- Place of Publication:
- London : ISTE Ltd. ; Hoboken, NJ : John WIley & Sons, Inc., 2014.
- System Details:
- text file
- Summary:
- Under certain scenarios on the subject of CO2 emissions, by the end of the century the atmospheric concentration could triple its pre-industrial level. The very large numerical models intended to anticipate the corresponding climate evolutions are designed and quantified from the laws of physics. However, little is generally known about these: genesis of clouds, terms of the greenhouse effect, solar activity intervention, etc. This book deals with the issue of climate modeling in a different way: using proven techniques for identifying black box-type models. Taking climate observations from throughout the millennia, the global models obtained are validated statistically and confirmed by the resulting simulations. This book thus brings constructive elements that can be reproduced by anyone adept at numerical simulation, whether an expert climatologist or not. It is accessible to any reader interested in the issues of climate change. Book jacket.
- Contents:
- Chapter 1 Introduction 1
- 1.1 Context 1
- 1.2 Identification 3
- 1.3 Expectations and results 5
- 1.4 Contents of the work 6
- Chapter 2 Climatic Data 11
- 2.1 Sources 11
- 2.2 Global temperature 12
- 2.2.1 Modern temperatures 12
- 2.2.2 Pre-industrial temperature 13
- 2.2.3 Paleotemperatures 14
- 2.3 Concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere 17
- 2.4 Solar activity 18
- 2.5 Volcanic activity 26
- Chapter 3 The War of the Graphs 29
- 3.1 History 29
- 3.2 Inconsistent controversies 35
- 3.3 Usable data 38
- Chapter 4 Formulating an Energy Balance Model 41
- 4.1 State models and transmittance 41
- 4.2 Structure of an energy balance model 44
- 4.3 Specificity of EBMs 47
- 4.4 Dynamic parametrization 49
- Chapter 5 Presumed Parameters 55
- 5.1 Terminology 55
- 5.2 Climate sensitivity S<sub>clim</sub> 57
- 5.3 Coefficient of radiative forcing α₁ 58
- 5.4 The climate feedback coefficient λ<sub>G</sub> 58
- 5.5 Sensitivity to irradiance S₂ 59
- 5.6 Sensitivity to volcanic activity S₃ 61
- 5.7 Climate or anthropogenic sensitivity 61
- 5.8 Review of uncertainties 63
- Chapter 6 Identification Method 67
- 6.1 The current state of affairs 67
- 6.2 Output error method 69
- 6.3 Estimating the error variance 70
- 6.4 Hypothesis test and confidence regions 72
- 6.5 Conditions of application 73
- Chapter 7 Partial Results 75
- 7.1 A selection of data 75
- 7.2 Free identification 77
- 7.3 Forced identifications 81
- 7.4 Statistical analysis 86
- Chapter 8 Overall Results 91
- 8.1 Preliminary comments 91
- 8.2 Regions and intervals of confidence 93
- 8.3 Hypothesis test 96
- 8.4 Comments 97
- Chapter 9 Historic Minuscule Simulations 99
- 9.1 Overview of IPCC simulations 99
- 9.2 Comparative simulations 100
- 9.3 Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 102
- 9.4 Comparative radiative forcing 105
- Chapter 10 Long-Term Climate Projections 107
- 10.1 IPCC scenarios and projections 107
- 10.2 EBM compatible scenarios 109
- 10.3 Long-term projections 110
- 10.4 A disaster scenario 113
- Chapter 11 Short-Term Predictions 115
- 11.1 Decadal time scale predictions by GCM 115
- 11.2 The climate's natural variability 117
- 11.3 State estimate and prediction 120
- 11.4 Decadal time scale predictions by EBM 123
- 11.5 A posteriori predictions 124
- Chapter 12 Conclusions 129
- 12.1 On the identification 129
- 12.2 Climate sensitivity 130
- 12.3 Solar activity 131
- 12.4 Predictive capacity 132
- 12.5 The climate change in question 133
- 12.6 Prospects 133.
- Notes:
- Includes bibliographical references and index.
- Electronic reproduction. Hoboken, N.J. Available via World Wide Web.
- Description based on online resource; title from digital title page (viewed on December 18, 2014).
- ISBN:
- 9781119053989
- 1119053986
- 9781119053941
- 1119053943
- 9781119054023
- 1119054028
- Publisher Number:
- 99961207261
- Access Restriction:
- Restricted for use by site license.
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