Mapping disease transmission risk : enriching models using biogeography and ecology / A. Townsend Peterson.

Format:

• Book

Author/Creator:

• Peterson, A. Townsend (Andrew Townsend), 1964- author.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

• Medical mapping.
• Medical geography.
• Public health surveillance.
• Epidemiology.
• Epidemiologic Methods.
• Topography, Medical.

Medical Subjects:

• Epidemiologic Methods.
• Topography, Medical.

Physical Description:

xiv, 210 pages ; 27 cm

Place of Publication:

Baltimore : Johns Hopkins University Press, 2014.

Summary:

A Townsend Peterson, one of the pioneers of ecological niche modeling, presents a synthesis That illuminates new and more effective infectious disease mapping methods. His work the culmination of twelve years of refinement-breaks new ground by integrating biogeographic and ecological factors with spatial models. Aimed at seasoned epidemiologists and public health experts, this interdisciplinary book explain the conceptual and technical underpinnings of Peterson's approach while simultaneously describing the potentially enormous benefits of this modeling method. Peterson views disease transmission as a distribution of species. The book argues that complex, fragmented, and highly irregular disease, patterns can be understood only when underlying environmental drivers are considered, something true for all species distributions. The result is an elegant modeling approach that challenges static spatial models and provides a framework for recasting disease mapping. Anyone working in the area of disease transmission, particularly those employing predictive maps will find Peterson's book both inspiring and indispensable. Book jacket.

Contents:

• 1 Introduction 1
• Ecology and Biogeography 1
• This Book 3
• Conclusions 4
• Part I Distributional Ecology
• 2 General Conceptual Framework for Species' Distributions 7
• Historical Background 7
• A General Schema of Distributional Ecology 9
• Disease Systems 13
• Conclusions 16
• 3 Status of Data for Understanding Disease Distributions 17
• Disease Case-Occurrence Data Sets 17
• Relevant Biodiversity Occurrence Data Sets 21
• Georeferencing 28
• The Meaning of No Records 33
• Conclusions 35
• 4 Current Tools for Understanding Disease Distributions 36
• The Current Toolkit 37
• Shortcomings of the Current Methodologies 40
• Conclusions 43
• Part II Disease Modeling Basics
• 5 Modifications to the Basic Framework 47
• Disease Peculiarities 48
• Real-World Examples: West Nile Virus and Others 49
• Implications for Disease Modeling 50
• Conclusions 51
• 6 Modeling Components versus Outcomes 53
• Disease Transmission Systems as Sets of Interacting Species 55
• Black-Box Approaches 60
• Component-Based Approaches 63
• Combined Approaches 64
• Conclusions 67
• 7 Space-Only versus Space-and-Environment Models 68
• Examples and Illustrations 69
• Contrasting the Two Types of Models 70
• Conclusions 72
• Part III Preparing the Data
• 8 Garbage-In-Garbage-Out Principle 75
• Problems with Data Quality 76
• Biases Created by Geography 81
• Conclusions 83
• 9 Assembling Occurrence Data 84
• General Considerations 85
• Obtaining and Improving Occurrence Data 88
• Compatibility and Study Design 92
• Conclusions 93
• 10 Assembling Environmental Data 94
• Relevance to Species' Distributions 95
• General Considerations 95
• Modifiable Areal Unit Problem 99
• Specific Data Resources 100
• Conclusions 103
• 11 Study Areas and BAM 104
• Denning the Area M 105
• Sampling Considerations 106
• BAM Configurations 107
• Details of M and A for Model Transfers 108
• Conclusions 109
• Part IV Developing Models
• 12 Calibrating Niche Models 113
• Introduction to Niche Models 114
• Nuts and Bolts 117
• Calibrating the "Best" Model 119
• Transferring and Extrapolating 121
• Characterizing Ecological Niches 122
• Conclusions 122
• 13 Processing Raw Outputs into Useful Maps 124
• Choosing Appropriate Thresholds 125
• From Potential to Actual Distributions 126
• Projecting and Transferring Models 127
• Conclusions 128
• 14 Evaluating Niche Models 130
• Controversies and Inappropriate Approaches 131
• Basic Concepts 132
• The Confusion Matrix and Its Implications 134
• Binary Model Evaluation 135
• Continuous Model Evaluation 136
• Model Evaluation and Model Performance 138
• Conclusions 139
• 15 Developing Risk Maps 140
• Initial Estimates 142
• Risk Modifiers 142
• Type I versus Type II Errors 148
• Overlay, Testing, and Simulation 148
• Conclusions 149
• Part V Examples of Applications
• 16 Identifying Risk Factors 153
• Black-Box Disease Ecology 154
• Vector Ecology 155
• Human Variables 156
• Improvements and Future Steps 157
• 17 Spatial Interpolation and Prediction 158
• Black-Box Examples 159
• Component-Based Examples 161
• Improvements and Future Steps 162
• 18 Identifying Species Involved in Transmission Cycles 164
• Identifying Guilty Species 166
• Understanding Transmission Systems 166
• Detecting Movement Vectors 167
• Complete Unknowns 169
• Improvements and Future Steps 170
• 19 Responses to Environmental Change 171
• Early Mechanistic Models 172
• Empirical Niche Model Projections of Climate Change 174
• Mechanistic versus.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

• 9781421414737
• 1421414732

OCLC:

864418212