G.L.S Shackle / Peter E. Earl, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia, and Bruce Littleboy, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Queensland, Australia ; with a contribution by Michael Jefferson, Visiting Professor of Economics, University of Buckingham, UK.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Earl, Peter E.

Series:

Great thinkers in economics series

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Shackle, G. L. S. (George Lennox Sharman), 1903-1992.

Shackle, G. L. S.

Economists--Great Britain--Biography.

Economists.

Great Britain.

Economics--Great Britain--History--20th century.

Economics.

History.

Genre:

Biographies.

History.

Physical Description:

xiii, 246 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm.

Place of Publication:

Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire ; New York, NY : Palgrave Macmillan, 2014.

Summary:

This Intellectual biography of G.L.S Shackle, economic theorist, philosopher and historian of economic thought, explores his radical ideas, which deserve attention today. Shackle challenged the aims, methods and assumptions of mainstream economics, He remains the sole poet and mystic of economics. He sought to replace probabilistic, equilibrium-focused economics with an approach that focuses on imagined possibilities and potential for sudden 'kaleidle' change His richly psychological thinking complements core ideas in behavioural economics and his philosophy of uncertainly has lessons for planners and entrepreneurs. Shackle's radically subjectivist theory of crucial choice under conditions of deep uncertainty contributed to modern corporate scenario panning. He stressed macroeconomic instability and the possibitity of complete surprise Shackle devised a 'kateidic' economics in which Changes in events or in expectations can lead to cascading change. in an era buffeted by the 'unknown unknowns', Shackle offers wise advice and supports promising developments in contemporary economics. His core ideas complement and in some areas anticipated the 'bounded rationatity' perspective of Herbert Simon and the psychological economics of Daniel Kahneman. He drew insightfully from the great economist he knew and admired. Such as Friedrich von Hayek and John Maynard Keynes. Book jacket.

Contents:

1 Introduction 1

2 Life and Vision 7

2.1 Introduction 7

2.2 The disciplines's most radical economist 10

2.3 A Man of quiet ambition 13

2.4 Life, disposition and vision 14

2.5 On method and style 17

2.6 Conclusion 25

Appendix: George Shackle's family history 27

3 Shackle's Economics 30

3.1 Shackle's kaleidics 30

3.2 Shackle's policy vision 32

3.3 Kaleidic macroeconomic theory 36

3.4 Shackle, institutionalism and Austrian economics 41

3.5 Shackle's economics today: complexity and emergence 46

4 Possibility versus Probability: the Rhetoric of Choice 51

4.1 Introduction 51

4.1 Possibility versus probability 54

4.1 The rival Positions 57

4.1 Going too far? 63

4.1 Psychology and probability 66

4.1 Hypothetical experiments: picking a ball from a bag 71

4.1 Expertise 74

4.1 Bluffing and game theory 76

4.1 Deep uncertainty: we simply do not know 78

4.1 Concluding reflections 80

5 Potential Surprise and Choice 84

5.1 A decade in development 84

5.2 Prospective returns and potential surprise 87

5.3 From conjectures to choices 90

5.4 Standardized focus outcomes 98

5.5 Coming out against probabilistic models of choice under uncertainty 103

6 Critical Perspectives on Shackle's Theory 109

6.1 Shackle and his critcs 109

6.2 The subjectivist nature of the theory 110

6.3 Objections to the idea of potential surprise as an alternative to probability 113

6.4 Objections to the idea of focusing on best and worst outcomes 118

6.5 The alleged redundancy of the gambler indifference map 121

6.6 The debatable form of the Φ-surface 126

6.7 The evidence 132

6.8 Conclusion 136

7 Making Sense of Diversification 138

7.1 An unsatisfactory prediction 138

7.2 Shackle's view of multi-asset diversification 140

7.3 Systemic versus non-systemic risks 145

7.4 Diversification, kaleidics and the firm 149

8 Shackle and Behavioural Economics 154

8.1 Shackle as a behavioural economist 154

8.2 Bounded (un)knowledge versus bounded rationality 154

8.3 Opportunities for integrating the analyses of Shackle and Simon 163

8.4 Shackle's analysis versus Prospect Theory 167

8.5 Base-Rate probabilities for novel/singular situations 177

9 Lessons for Economists, Entrepreneurs and Business Schools 180

9.1 Introduction 180

9.2 Non-additive ways of choosing 181

9.3 Kaleidic versus systematic aspects of choice 184

9.4 Avoiding unpleasant surprises and opportunity losses 186

9.5 Contractual incompleteness and economic organization 190

9.6 Marketing and consumer well-being 192

9.7 Entrepreneurship 195

10 The Passage of Time: Shackle, Shell and Scenarios Michael Jefferson 198

10.1 Background to the connection between Shackle and Shell 198

10.2 The British Association for the Advancement of Science meeting in York, 1981 207

10.3 To cope with time 210

10.4 Interest in Shell's scenarios approach by Shackle enthusiasts 212

10.5 Concluding remarks 214

11 Coda 215.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 225-238) and index.

ISBN:

9781137281852

1137281855

OCLC:

869852324