Risk analysis : a quantitative guide / David Vose.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Vose, David.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Monte Carlo method.

Risk assessment--Mathematical models.

Risk assessment.

Physical Description:

xiv, 735 pages : illustrations ; 26 cm

Edition:

Third edition.

Place of Publication:

Chichester, England ; Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, [2008]

Summary:

Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide is a comprehensive guide for the risk analyst and decision maker. Based on the author's extensive experience in solving real-world risk problems, this book is an invaluable aid to the risk analysis practitioner. By providing the building blocks of risk-based thinking the author guides the reader through the steps necessary to produce a realistic risk analysis and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most common and challenging risk modelling problems. A wide range of solved examples is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be put together to make the best possible risk-based decisions.

The third edition of this highly regarded text has been thoroughly updated and expanded considerably with five new chapters for the risk manager, including how to plan and assess the quality of a risk analysis, as well as new chapters for the risk analysis modeller on summation of random variables, causality, optimization, insurance and finance modelling, forecasting, model validation and common errors, capital investment and microbial risk assessment. This new edition provides a greater focus on business and includes applications in a wide range of different settings.

Contents:

Why do a risk analysis?

Planning a risk analysis

The quality of a risk analysis

Choice of model structure

Understanding and using the results of a risk analysis

Probability mathematics and simulation

Building and running a model

Some basic random processes

Data and statistics

Fitting distributions to data

Sums of random variables

Forecasting with uncertainty

Modelling correlation and dependencies

Eliciting from expert opinion

Testing and modelling causal relationships

Optimisation in risk analysis

Checking and validating a model

Discounted cashflow modelling

Project risk analysis

Insurance and finance risk analysis modelling

Microbial food safety risk assessment

Animal import risk assessment.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 725-728) and index.

ISBN:

9780470512845

0470512849

OCLC:

174112755

Online:

Contributor biographical information

Publisher description