Dominance and Decline.

Format:

Book

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Canada. Parliament--Elections--History--21st century.

Canada.

Canada. Parliament.

Elections--Canada--History--21st century.

Elections.

Voting--Canada--History--21st century.

Voting.

History.

Physical Description:

xxix, 226 pages ; 18 cm

Place of Publication:

[Place of publication not identified] : Univ of Toronto Pr Higher education, 2012.

Summary:

Coming out of the 2000 Canadian federal election, the dominance of the Liberal Party seemed assured. By 2011 the situation had completely reversed: the Liberals suffered a crushing defeat, failing even to become the official opposition and recording their lowest ever share of the vote. Dominance and Decline provides a comprehensive, comparative account of Canadian election outcomes from 2000 through to 2008. The book explores the meaning of those outcomes within the context of the larger changes that have marked Canada's party system since 1988. It also shows how these trends were consistent with the outcome of the 2011 federal election. Throughout the book a variety of voting theories are revisited and reassessed in light of this analysis. Book jacket.

Contents:

Chapter 1 Explaining Vote Choice 1

The Sociological Model 2

The Social-Psychological Model 5

Multistage Models 8

Rational Choice Models 10

The Analytic Strategy 13

Chapter 2 The Changing Social Bases of Party Support 19

Social Cleavages Old and New 19

The Liberals: A Party in Decline 24

The Conservatives: On the Road to a Majority 29

The NDP: A Party on the Rebound 31

Change and Continuity 32

Chapter 3 Values and Beliefs 37

Telling the Left from the Right 38

Beyond Left and Right 40

Value Stability and Change 42

Values, Beliefs, and Social Background Characteristics 44

Values, Beliefs, and Vote Choice 45

Values, Beliefs, and Electoral Dynamics 49

Chapter 4 Party Loyalties 53

Party Identification: A Contested Concept in Canada 53

Is Party Identification Meaningful in Canada? 56

The Liberals Lose Their Partisan Advantage 60

Who are the Partisans? 64

Short-Term Shocks and Strained Loyalties 66

Chapter 5 Does the Economy Matter? 69

The Not-so-Simple Economic Voting Calculus 70

The Contingencies of Economic Voting 72

Economic Conditions and the Vote 73

Changing Economic Perceptions 75

Economic Perceptions and the Vote 76

The Limited Influence of Economic Perceptions 77

Revisiting Conventional Wisdom 82

Chapter 6 The Issues and the Vote 85

Issue Voting 86

Policy Issues and the Vote 88

The Sponsorship Scandal 94

Issue Voting and Party Fortunes 98

Chapter 7 Party Leaders-"The Superstars" of Canadian Politics? 101

Leader Evaluations, Vote Choice, and Electoral Dynamics 102

Leader Awareness 104

Feelings about the Party Leaders 106

What Lies behind Leader Evaluations? 108

Leader Evaluations and Vote Choice 112

Leader Evaluations and Party Vote Shares 113

The Leadership Factor 114

Chapter 8 Strategic Considerations 117

Strategic Voting 118

Preferences, Perceptions, and Vote Choice 120

Minority Governments 121

Views about Minority Government 123

The Influence of Strategic Motivations, Values, and Economic Considerations 126

Views about Minority Government and Vote Choice 128

Strategic Calculations and Electoral Dynamics 129

Chapter 9 The Greens and the Perils of Being A "Single-Issue" Party 133

Alternative Explanations for Green Voting 134

Where Did Green Voters Come From? 137

Who Supported the Green Party? 138

Constraints and Opportunities 142

Chapter 10 Electoral Dynamics in Quebec 147

The Linguistic Divide 149

Sovereignists, Federalists, and the "Soft Centre" 151

Partisanship and Vote Choice 155

The Economy 158

The Issues 161

The Leadership Factor 164

Strategic Considerations 166

Distinct Dynamics 169

Chapter 11 The Shifting Contours of Canadian Elections 173

Explaining Changing Party Fortunes: Outside Québec 173

Explaining Changing Party Fortunes: Québec 179

Explaining Vote Choice and Electoral Dynamics: What Has Been Learned? 180

The Strategic Challenges Facing Canadian Parties 182.

ISBN:

9781442603899

1442603895

OCLC:

773664382