Using social media to gauge Iranian public opinion and mood after the 2009 election : technical report / Sara Beth Elson ... [and others].

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Elson, Sara Beth.

Series:

Technical report (Rand Corporation) ; TR-1161-RC.

Technical report (Rand Corporation)

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Presidents--Iran--Elections--2009--Public opinion.

Presidents.

Social media--Political aspects.

Research.

Social media.

Iran.

Elections.

Public opinion.

Public opinion--Iran.

Social media--Political aspects--Research.

Physical Description:

xxi, 86 pages : illustrations ; 28 cm.

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2012.

Summary:

In the months after the contested Iranian presidential election in June 2009, Iranians used Twitter-a social media service that allows users to send short text messages, called tweets, with relative anonymity-to speak out about the election and the protests and other events that followed it. The authors of this report used an automated content analysis program called Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count 2007 (LIWC) to analyze more than 2.5 million tweets discussing the Iran election that were sent in the nine months following it. The authors (1) identify patterns in word usage over the nine-month period and (2) examine whether these patterns coincided with political events, to gain insight into how people may have felt before, during, and after those events. For example, they compare how trends in negative sentiment directed toward President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, his election opponents, and President Barack Obama changed over time, and they track the way in which the use of swear words sharply increased in the days leading up to specific protests. Particularly in countries where freedom of expression is limited, automated analysis of social media appears to hold promise for such policy uses as assessing public opinion or outreach efforts and forecasting events such as large-scale protests. Book jacket.

Contents:

Chapter 1 Introduction 1

Analysis of Social Media Can Help Gauge Public Opinion and Mood in Closed Societies 2

A New Computer-Based Tool Offers a Promising Means of Tapping into Politically Oriented Content in Social Media 2

This Type of Analysis Can Have Important Policy Uses 3

Organization of This Report 4

Chapter 2 Methodology 5

The Precedent for Our Approach: Previous Research Using LIWC and Word-Usage Analysis 5

LIWC Has Been Shown to Accurately Represent Verbal Expression 5

The Real Potential of Exploring Word Usage Lies in Its Links with Behaviors and Outcomes 5

Word Usage Is Now Being Studied in Politically Oriented Contexts 6

Our Research Process 6

Planning Tasks: Understanding the Sphere of Relevant Social Media 7

Selecting Twitter Texts 7

Selecting Iran-Relevant Political Topics 8

Selecting the LIWC Word Categories to Use in Our Analysis and Defining How We Would Interpret Them 8

Chapter 3 Background on Social Media Use in Iran and Events Surrounding the 2009 Election 11

Social Media Use in Contemporary Iran 11

The Scale of Internet and Social Media Usage in Contemporary Iran 11

Who Is Using Social Media in Iran? 12

The Anonymity Factor 12

The Iranian Information Environment Prior to the 2009 Presidential Election 13

The Use of Social Media During the 2009 Presidential Election in Iran 14

The Role of Social Media in Iran's Internal Politics Grew Rapidly After the 2009 Presidential Election 15

Major Events in Iran During the Post-Election Period 17

The Rise of Mass Protests 17

June 19: Khamenei's Friday Prayer Speech 18

June 20: Neda Agha-Soltan's Death 18

July 9: Anniversary of the 1999 Student Uprisings 18

August 5: Ahmadinejad's Inauguration 19

September 18: Quds Day 19

Late December: Ashura Day Protests 20

February 11, 2010: 31st Anniversary of the Islamic Revolution 20

Chapter 4 Overall Trends in Public Mood in Iran After the 2009 Presidential Election 23

Public Mood Throughout the Nine Months After the Election 23

Twitter's Clearest Indicator of Mood and Forecaster of Action: Swear Words 23

Use of Pronouns on Twitter After the Election 25

Summary 28

Chapter 5 Iranian Public Opinion About Specific Topics in the Aftermath of the 2009 Election 29

Public Opinion Leading Domestic Political Figures: Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, Mousavi, and Karroubi 29

Summary 29

Background 30

Comparing Trends in Public Opinion About Political Figures 31

Around the Quds Day Protest, Twitter Users Wrote More Negatively About Khamenei Than About Ahmadinejad 31

At Certain Points, Twitter Users Wrote More Positively and Less Negatively About Karroubi Than About Mousavi 33

Initially, Twitter Users Swore More About Ahmadinejad Than About Mousavi, but the Opposite Became True 36

Policy Implications 37

Pro-Government and Opposition Groups: The Green Movement, the Revolutionary Guards, and the Basij 38

Summary 38

Background 38

Comparing Trends in Public Opinion About Political Groups 39

The Green Movement Was Viewed More Positively Than the Revolutionary Guards or Basij 39

Twitter Users Swore More About the Basij Than About the Revolutionary Guards 40

Public Opinion About the United States, President Obama, and the CIA 42

Summary 42

Usage of Swear Words Suggests Early Frustration with the United States and President Obama, as Well as a Strong Desire for U.S. Action 43

Usage of First-Person Singular Pronouns Regarding the United States and President Obama Generally Paralleled Usage of Swear Words 46

Pronoun Use When Writing About Obama as Compared with Iranian Figures 48

Twitter Users Expressed Less Negative Emotion When Writing About Obama as Compared with Iranian Figures 50

Positive Emotions in Tweets About Obama Showed Several Pronounced Spikes Compared with Tweets About the United States 52

Some Twitter Users Pointed to Foreign Influence, Particularly Intelligence Agencies, as the Driving Force Behind Protests 53

Public Opinion About Specific Countries: Israel, the United States, and Iran 55

Summary 55

Twitter Users Only Infrequently Swore Regarding Israel or the United States 56

Twitter Users Swore More When Referring to the "Islamic Republic" Than to "Iran" 57

Twitter Users Expressed Positive Emotions Toward Israelis Who May Have Aided the Protest Movement 58

Chapter 6 Methodological Considerations 61

Additional Demonstration of the Methodology: Sadness Words 61

Linguistic Indicators That Did Not Work as Expected on Twitter 62

Differences in Phrasing May Reflect Differing Intentions and Writing Styles 63

Limitations of Automated Analysis Suggest That It Is Complementary Approach to Manual Analysis 65

Chapter 7 Next Steps: A Design for a Second Phase of This Program of Research 67

Looking Ahead Toward the 2013 Iranian Presidential Elections 67

Validating the Methodology 68

Improving Current Aspects of the Methodology 69

Expanding the Scope of the Current Work 70.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 79-86).

ISBN:

9780833059727

0833059726

OCLC:

768728903