Forecasting, warning, and responding to transnational risks / edited by Chiara de Franco, Christoph O. Meyer.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

De Franco, Chiara, 1977-

Meyer, Christoph O., 1973-

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Risk--Forecasting.

Risk.

Risk assessment.

Emergency management.

Forecasting.

Physical Description:

xiv, 285 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm

Place of Publication:

Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire ; New York : Palgrave Macmillan, [2011]

Summary:

What does it take to recognise and prevent hazards with international causes and consequences? How can we handle the risks related to financial 'instability, terrorism pandemtcs, air pollution, flooding and climate change? The book brings together scholars and senior practitioners from different areas to conceptualise and empirically study the interlinked problems of forecasting, warning and mobilising preventive action. Contributors comment on key problems such as uncertainty, silo-mentality, spotting weak-signals, . cultures of blame, conflicts of interest and divergent risk perceptions, but are also sensitive to differences between actors and types of risk. The overall thrust is to challenge both technocratic and popularised accounts of the warning-response problem. Successful prevention or mitigation involves difficult cognitive, normative and political judgements. Whilst these difficulties cannot be eliminated, contributors suggest ways in which organisations, journalists, scientists and decision-makers can at leastmitigate them.

Chiara de Franco is Research Associate in the Department of War Studies at king's College London, Uk. She is also Manager of the Foresight Project on Early Warning and Conflict Prevention. Previously, she was Lecturer in International Relations Theory and War Representations at the University of Florence, Italy and Lecturer in European Affairs at the Florida State University, Florence, Italy.

Christoph O. Meyer is Senior Lecturer in the Department of War Studies at King's College London,UK. He is also Principal lnvestigator of the Foresight Project on Early Warning and Conflict Prevention. He is the author; of The Quest for a European Strategic Culture and has been active in providing policy advice to the European Parljarrient and Eu Commission. Book jacket.

Contents:

Introduction: The Challenges of Prevention / C. De Franco Franco, C. De, C. O. Meyer

Part I Forecasting Harm

The Coastline of The Future: Some Limits on Forecasting and Prediction / D. Omand

Epistemology of Forecasting in International Relations: Knowing the Difference between 'Intelligence Failure' and 'Warning Failure' / J. Goldman

Foresec: Lessons Learnt from a Pan-European Security Foresight Project / V. Brummer, C. Burnley, H. Carlsen, A. Duta, B. Giegerich, R. Magoni

Modelling Transnational Environmental Risks: Scenarios for Decision Support / F. Wagner

Risk, Uncertainty and the Assessment of Organised Crime / T. Van Der Beken Beken, T. Van Der

Part II Communicating and Learning from Warnings

Mediatised Warnings: Late, Wrong, Yet Indispensable? Lessons from Climate Change and Civil War / C. De Franco Franco, C. De, C. O. Meyer

Do They Listen? Communicating Warnings: An Intelligence Practitioners Perspective / W. Shapcott

Efas and Early Flood Warning in the EU / D. Demeritt, S. Nobert

Dark Secrets: Face-Work, Organizational Culture and Disaster Prevention / M. S. Gerstein, E. H. Schein

Part III Responding to Warnings

Transnational Risk Management: A Business Perspective / C. Crossin, J. Smither

From the 'Neurotic' to the 'Rationalising' State: Risk and the Limits of Governance / H. Rothstein, O. Borraz, M. Huber

Ilos and Silences: The Role of Fragmentation in the Recent Financial Crisis / G. Tett

Forecasting, Warning and Preventive Policy: The Case of Finance / T. F. Huertas

Prospective Sense-Making: A Realistic Approach to 'Foresight for Prevention' in an Age of Complex Threats / W. H. Fishbein.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

9780230297845

0230297846

OCLC:

710816245