Risk and Safety Analysis of Nuclear Systems / John C. Lee, Norman J. McCormick.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Lee, John C., 1941- author.

McCormick, Norman J., author.

Contributor:

Class of 1924 Book Fund.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Nuclear facilities--Security measures.

Nuclear facilities.

Nuclear engineering--Safety measures.

Nuclear engineering.

Nuclear engineering--Risk assessment.

Risk assessment.

Physical Description:

xxi, 477 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm

Place of Publication:

Hoboken, New Jersey : Wiley, [2011]

Summary:

"The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems. The second half of the book covers the safety analysis of nuclear energy systems, an analysis of major accidents and incidents that occurred in commercial nuclear plants, applications of PRA techniques to the safety analysis of nuclear power plants (focusing on a major PRA study for five nuclear power plants), practical PRA examples, and emerging techniques in the structure of dynamic event trees and fault trees that can provide a more realistic representation of complex sequences of events. The book concludes with a discussion on passive safety features of advanced nuclear energy systems under development and approaches taken for risk-informed regulations for nuclear plants"-- Provided by publisher.

"The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems. The second half of the book covers the safety analysis of nuclear energy systems, an analysis of major accidents and incidents that occurred in commercial nuclear plants, applications of PRA techniques to the safety analysis of nuclear power plants (focusing on a major PRA study for five nuclear power plants), practical PRA examples, and emerging techniques in the structure of dynamic event trees and fault trees that can provide a more realistic representation of complex sequences of events"-- Provided by publisher.

Contents:

1 Risk and Safety of Engineered Systems 1

1.1 Risk and Its Perception and Acceptance 1

1.2 Overview of Risk and Safety Analysis 6

1.3 Two Historical Reactor Accidents 8

1.4 Definition of Risk 9

1.5 Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, and Safety 10

1.6 Organization of the Book 12

References 13

2 Probabilities of Events 15

2.1 Events 15

2.2 Event Tree Analysis and Minimal Cut Sets 17

2.3 Probabilities 19

2.3.1 Interpretations of Probability 19

2.3.2 Axiomatic Approach to Probabilities 20

2.3.3 Intersection of Events 21

2.3.4 Union of Events 22

2.3.5 Decomposition Rule for Probabilities 25

2.4 Time-Independent Versus Time-Dependent Probabilities 25

2.5 Time-Independent Probabilities 26

2.5.1 Introduction 26

2.5.2 Time-Independent Probability Distributions 27

2.6 Normal Distribution 32

2.7 Reliability Functions 35

2.8 Time-Dependent Probability Distributions 41

2.8.1 Erlangian and Exponential Distributions 42

2.8.2 Gamma Distribution 43

2.8.3 Lognormal Distribution 44

2.8.4 Weibull Distribution 46

2.8.5 Generalized "Bathtub" Distribution 47

2.8.6 Selection of a Time-Dependent Probability Distribution 48

2.9 Extreme-Value Probability Distributions 50

2.10 Probability Models for Failure Analyses 52

References 53

Exercises 53

3 Reliability Data 59

3.1 Estimation Theory 59

3.1.1 Moment Estimators 60

3.1.2 Maximum Likelihood Estimators 61

3.1.3 Maximum Entropy Estimators 64

3.1.4 Comparison of Estimators 65

3.2 Bayesian Updating of Data 65

3.2.1 Bayes Equation 65

3.2.2 Applications of the Bayes Equation 67

3.3 Central Limit Theorem and Hypothesis Testing 70

3.3.1 Interpretation of the Central Limit Theorem 71

3.3.2 Hypothesis Testing with the Central Limit Theorem 72

3.4 Reliability Quantification 74

3.4.1 Central Limit Theorem for Reliability Quantification 74

3.4.2 Engineering Approach for Reliability Quantification 76

3.4.3 X²-Distribution for Reliability Quantification 77

3.4.4 Three-Way Comparison and Concluding Remarks 78

References 80

Excercises 80

4.1 Reliability of Multiple-Component Systems 85

4.1 Series and Active-Parallel Systems 86

4.1.1 Systems with Independent Components 86

4.1.2 Systems with Redundant Components 88

4.1.3 Fail-to-Safety and Fail-to-Danger Systems 90

4.2 Systems with Standby Components 93

4.3 Decomposition Analysis 96

4.4 Signal Flow Graph Analysis 100

4.5 Cut Set Analysis 101

References 104

Exercises 104

5 Availability and Reliability of Systems with Repair 109

5.1 Introduction 109

5.2 Markov Method 111

5.2.1 Markov Governing Equations 111

5.2.2 Solution of Markov Governing Equations 113

5.2.3 An Elementary Example 116

5.3 Availability Analyses 118

5.3.1 Rules for Constructing Transition Rate Matrices 118

5.3.2 Availability Transition Rate Matrices 119

5.3.3 Time-Dependent Availability Examples 123

5.3.4 Steady-State Availability 127

5.4 Reliability Analyses 128

5.4.1 Reliability Transition Rate Matrices 129

5.4.2 Time-Dependent Reliability Examples 130

5.4.3 Mean Time to Failure 130

5.5 Additional Capabilities of Markov Models 133

5.5.1 Imperfect Switching Between System States 134

5.5.2 Systems with Nonconstant Hazard Rates 136

References 137

Exercises 137

6 Probabilistic Risk Assessment 141

6.1 Failure Modes 142

6.2 Classification of Failure Events 143

6.2.1 Primary, Secondary, and Command Failures 143

6.2.2 Common Cause Failures 144

6.2.3 Human Errors 148

6.3 Failure Data 150

6.3.1 Hardware Failures 150

6.3.2 Human Errors 150

6.4 Combination of Failures and Consequences 152

6.4.1 Inductive Methods 152

6.4.2 Event Tree Analysis 154

6.5 Fault Tree Analysis 156

6.5.1 Introduction 156

6.5.2 Fault Tree Construction 157

6.5.3 Qualitative Fault Tree Analysis 157

6.5.4 Quantitative Fault Tree Analysis 160

6.5.5 Common Cause Failures and Fault Tree Analysis 165

6.6 Master Logic Diagram 165

6.7 Uncertainty and Importance Analysis 168

6.7.1 Types of Uncertainty in PRAs 168

6.7.2 Stochastic Uncertainty Analysis 169

6.7.3 Sensitivity and Importance Analysis 170

References 172

Exercises 172

7 Computer Programs for Probabilistic Risk Assessment 179

7.1 Fault Tree Methodology of the SAPHIRE Code 179

7.1.1 Gate Conversion and Tree Restructuring 180

7.1.2 Simplification of the Tree 180

7.1.3 Fault Tree Expansion and Reduction 182

7.2 Fault and Event Tree Evaluation with the SAPHERE Code 183

7.3 Other Features of the SAPHIRE Code 185

7.4 Other PRA Codes 185

7.5 Binary Decision Diagram Algorithm 187

7.5.1 Basic Formulation of the BDD Algorithm 187

7.5.2 Generalization of the BDD Formulation 189

7.5.3 Zero-Suppressed BDD Algorithm and the FTREX Code 193

References 194

Exercises 195

8 Nuclear Power Plant Safety Analysis 197

8.1 Engineered Safety Features of Nuclear Power Plants 197

8.1.1 Pressurized Water Reactor 198

8.1.2 Boiling Water Reactor 210

8.2 Accident Classification and General Design Goals 215

8.2.1 Plant Operating States 217

8.2.2 Accident Classification in 10 CFR 50 217

8.2.3 General Design Criteria and Safety Goals 219

8.3 Design Basis Accident: Large-Break LOCA 220

8.3.1 Typical Sequence of a Cold-Leg LBLOCA in PWR 221

8.3.2 ECCS Specifications 225

8.3.3 Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty Evaluation 227

8.4 Severe (Class 9) Accidents 231

8.5 Anticipated Transients Without Scram 233

8.5.1 History and Background of the ATWS Issue 233

8.5.2 Resolution of the ATWS Issues 235

8.5.3 Power Coefficients of Reactivity in LWRs 237

8.6 Radiological Source and Atmospheric Dispersion 241

8.6.1 Radiological Source Term 242

8.6.2 Atmospheric Dispersion of Radioactive Plume 243

8.6.3 Simple Models for Dose Rate Calculation 247

8.7 Biological Effects of Radiation Exposure 250

References 252

Exercises 254

9 Major Nuclear Power Plant Accidents and Incidents 259

9.1 Three Mile Island Unit 2 Accident 260

9.1.1 Sequence of the Accident-March 1979 260

9.1.2 Implications and Follow-Up of the Accident 260

9.2 PWR In-Vessel Accident Progression 263

9.2.1 Core Uncovery and Heatup 265

9.2.2 Cladding Oxidation 266

9.2.3 Clad Melting and Fuel Liquefaction 268

9.2.4 Molten Core Slumping and Relocation 270

9.2.5 Vessel Breach 271

9.3 Chernobyl Accident 272

9.3.1 Cause and Nature of the Accident-April 1986 272

9.3.2 Sequence of the Accident 274

9.3.3 Estimate of Energy Release in the Accident 275

9.3.4 Accident Consequences 275

9.3.5 Comparison of the TMI and Chernobyl Accidents 276

9.4 Fukushima Station Accident 277

9.4.1 Sequence of the Accident-March 2011 277

9.4.2 March 2011 Perspectives on the Fukushima SBO Event 278

9.5 Salem Anticipated Transient Without Scram 279

9.5.1 Chronology and Cause of the Salem Incident 279

9.5.2 Implications and Follow-Up of the Salem ATWS Event 281

9.6 LaSalle Transient Event 283

9.6.1 LaSalle Nuclear-Coupled Density-Wave Oscillations 283

9.6.2 Simple Model for Nuclear-Coupled Density-Wave Oscillations 287

9.6.3 Implications and Follow-Up of the LaSalle Incident 289

9.7 Davis-Besse Potential LOCA Event 291

9.7.1 Background and Chronology of the Incident 291

9.7.2 NRC Decision to Grant DB Shutdown Delay 293

9.7.3 Causes for the Davis-Besse Incident and Follow-Up 295

References 297

Exercises 300

10 PRA Studies of Nuclear Power Plants 303

10.1 WASH-1400 Reactor Safety Study 304

10.2 Assessment of Severe Accident Risks: NUREG-1150 311

10.2.1 Background and Scope of the NUREG-1150 Study 311

10.2.2 Overview of NUREG-1150 Methodology 313

10.2.3 Accident Frequency Analysis 315

10.2.4 Accident Progression Analysis 320

10.2.5 Radionuclide Transport Analysis 324

10.2.6 Offsite Consequence Analysis 327

10.2.7 Uncertainty Analysis 330

10.2.8 Risk Integration 331

10.2.9 Additional Perspectives and Comments on NUREG-1150 337

10.3 Simplified PRA in the Structure of NUREG-1150 340

10.3.1 Description of the Simplified PRA Model 340

10.3.2 Parametric Studies and Comments on the Simplified PRA Model 344

References 345

Exercises 347

11 Passive Safety and Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems 349

11.1 Passive Safety Demonstration Tests at EBR-II 349

11.1.1 EBR-II Primary System and Simplified Model 350

11.1.2 Unprotected Loss-of-Flow and Loss-of-Heat-Sink Tests 357

11.1.3 Simplified Fuel Channel Analysis 361

11.1.4 Implications of EBR-II Passive Safety Demonstration Tests 362

11.2 Safety Characteristics of Generation III+ Plants 364

11.2.1 AP1000 Design Features 364

11.2.2 Small-Break LOCA Analysis for AP1000 366

11.2.3 Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor 371

11.2.4 Reliability Quantification of SBWR Passive Safety Containment 375

11.3 Generation IV Nuclear Power Plants 382

11.3.1 Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor 383

11.3.2 Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accidents for Fast Reactors 387

11.3.3 VHTR and Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table 393

References 396

Exercises 399

12 Risk-Infoimed Regulations and Reliability-Centered Maintenance 401

12.l Risk Measures for Nuclear Plant Regulations 402

12.1.1 Principles of Risk-Informed Regulations and Licensing 402

12.1.2 Uncertainties in Risk-Informed Decision Making 405

12.1.3 Other Initiatives in Risk-Informed Regulations 406

12.2 Reliability-Centered Maintenance 406

12.2.1 Optimization Strategy for Preventive Maintenance 407

12.2.2 Reliability-Centered Maintenance Framework 409

12.2.3 Cost-Benefit Considerations 410

References 413

Exercises 415

13 Dynamic Event Tree Analysis 417

13.1 Basic Features of Dynamic Event Tree Analysis 418

13.2 Continuous Event Tree Formulation 421

13.2.1 Derivation of the Stochastic Balance Equation 421

13.2.2 Integral Form of the Stochastic Balance Equation 423

13.2.3 Numerical Solution of the Stochastic Balance Equation 425

13.3 Cell-to-Cell Mapping for Parameter Estimation 426

13.3.1 Derivation of the Bayesian Recursive Relationship 427

13.3.2 CCM Technique for Dynamic Event Tree Construction 430

13.4 Diagnosis of Component Degradations 434

13.4.1 Bayesian Framework for Component Diagnostics 434

13.4.2 Implementation of the Probabilistic Diagnostic Algorithm 437

References 441

Exercises 442.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Local Notes:

Acquired for the Penn Libraries with assistance from the Class of 1924 Book Fund.

ISBN:

9780470907566

0470907568

OCLC:

664666833