The rating agencies and their credit ratings : what they are, how they work and why they are relevant / Herwig M. Langohr and Patricia T. Langohr.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Langohr, Herwig M.

Contributor:

Langohr, Patricia T.

Series:

Wiley finance series

Wiley finance

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Credit ratings.

Credit bureaus.

Physical Description:

xiv, 510 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm.

Place of Publication:

Chichester, West Sussex, England ; Hoboken, NJ : John Wiley, [2008]

Summary:

Credit ratings have become a universal phenomenon throughout the capital markets, relied upon by investors, issuers and regulators alike. Issuers understand the fundamental effect of their rating on financing costs, and investors make buying (and selling) decisions based heavily on these scores. Regulators have incorporated credit ratings into everything from allowable investment alternatives for institutional investors to required capital for global banking firms.

Credit rating agencies and their output are vital in overcoming the information asymmetries of the capital market. The Rating Agencies and their Credit Ratings is a comprehensive explanation of what they are, how they function and why they are relevant, addressing a broad range of issues from the credit rating process and the performance of credit ratings, to the nature of competition in the credit rating industry and its regulation.

The book is organised into three distinct sections. Part A provides an introduction to credit ratings, their broad and diverse applications, and describes the credit rating process. Part B focuses on credit rating analysis, providing analysis of how rating actions and inactions interact with the market. Finally, Part C examines the credit rating industry, explaining where it comes from, what its main characteristics are, how the main players compete, and what results it produces for issuers, investors and shareholders.

Written by experienced Professors Herwig Langohr and Patricia Langohr, this book provides a unique and exhaustive introduction to credit ratings, developing the reader's understanding of credit ratings and the credit rating agencies that produce them. It combines breadth of perspective, substantiation of arguments and depth in reflection, provided by the analysis of extensive field interviews, academic research, rating agency data and regulatory hearings and testimony.

Contents:

1 Introduction 1

1.1 Context and Premises 1

1.1.1 The Benchmarking of Default Prospects Remains Deeply Rooted in Business Analysis 1

1.1.2 Credit Ratings Play a Unique Role in Overcoming Information Asymmetries on the Information Exchanges 9

1.1.3 Under the Spotlight as Unique Infomediaries, the CRAs became Strictly Regulated 13

1.2 Book Chapters 17

1.3 Supporting Materials 18

Part A Credit Rating Foundations 21

2 Credit Ratings 23

2.1 The World of Corporate Defaults 24

2.1.1 What are Corporate Defaults 27

2.1.2 The Drivers of Corporate Defaults 35

2.1.3 Recovery Rates from Defaults 39

2.2 Credit Rating Scales 40

2.2.1 Fundamental Ordinal Credit Rating Scales 43

2.2.2 Rating Scales and Observed Bond Market Credit Spreads 64

2.2.3 Market-Implied Cardinal Rating Scales and Default Probabilities 72

2.3 The Interpretation of Credit Ratings 74

2.3.1 Interpreting from the Scale 75

2.3.2 Correctly Interpreting versus Misinterpreting Ratings 78

2.3.3 Special Issues 85

2.4 Credit Ratings: Summary and Conclusions 88

3 The Raison d'Etre of Credit Ratings and their Market 89

3.1 Needs for Credit Ratings - or the Demand Side of Ratings 89

3.1.1 Principals: Issuers/Borrowers 91

3.1.2 Principals: Fixed Income Investors 99

3.1.3 Prescribers 104

3.2 Credit Ratings as a Solution to Information Asymmetry: Economic Analysis 111

3.2.1 Economics of Ratings: Intuition 111

3.2.2 Economics of Ratings: Analysis 113

3.2.3 The Economic Analysis of Ratings: Summary and Implications 124

3.3 Credit Rating Segments - or Scale and Scope of the Rated Universe 126

3.3.1 Industry Segments or Type of Rated Issuers 126

3.3.2 Product Segments or Types of Rated Issues 138

3.3.3 Geographical Segments or Location of the Obligor 149

3.4 Summary 158

3.5 Technical Appendix 158

4 How to Obtain and Maintain a Credit Rating 161

4.1 The Rating Preparation 161

4.1.1 The Issuer Client 163

4.1.2 The Rating Adviser-Intermediary 165

4.1.3 The Credit Rating Agency Supplier 168

4.2 The Rating 170

4.2.1 The Rating Action 170

4.2.2 Rating Follow-Up 174

4.2.3 The Rating Agreement 179

4.3 Quality of the Rating Process 187

4.3.1 Objectivity 188

4.3.2 Diligence 189

4.3.3 Transparency 191

Part B Credit Rating Analysis 195

5 The France Telecom Credit Rating Cycle: 1995-2004 197

5.1 From Sovereign Status to Near Speculative Grade (1995-2002) 198

5.1.1 How Sovereign Aaa Status of June 1995 Adjusts to Corporate Aa1 in July 1996 198

5.1.2 A Company that went Public on Aa1 Status in October 1997 is Downgraded to Aa2 in December 1999 200

5.1.3 Rapid Extension of FT's Reach and Two Notches Downgrade to A1 in September 2000 202

5.1.4 A Wake-up Call: the Orange IPO and Surprise Two Notches Down-grade to A3 in February 2001 211

5.1.5 The Slide Downward to Baa1 in September 2001 219

5.1.6 Looming Crisis and Two Notches Downgrade to Baa3 in June 2002 222

5.2 Turning Point and Rating Recovery (Fall 2002-Winter 2004) 229

5.2.1 Improvement in Outlook in September 2002 229

5.2.2 A New Start in October 2002 and Recovery Actions 238

5.2.3 Recovery Implementation and the Sequence of Rating Upgrades through February 2005 244

5.3 Analysis and Evaluation 247

5.3.1 Risk Shifting at France Telecom and its Fundamental and Market-Implied Ratings 248

5.3.2 The Restraint of the CRAs during the 2002 Crisis 253

5.3.3 The Value of Ratings to Issuers 254

6 Credit Rating Analysis 257

6.1 Fundamental Corporate Credit Ratings 257

6.1.1 Corporate Credit Risk2 257

6.1.2 Credit Risk of Corporate Debt Instruments 260

6.1.3 Putting it All Together: the Rating8 265

6.2 Corporate Ratings Implied by Market Data 274

6.2.1 The Concept 274

6.2.2 Mechanics of Extracting Default Probabilities from Market Prices21 276

6.2.3 Market-Implied Ratings 284

6.3 Special Sector Ratings 286

6.3.1 Sovereign Ratings 286

6.3.2 Financial Strength Ratings 291

6.3.3 Structured Finance Instruments Ratings 296

6.4 Technical Appendix 304

6.4.1 Step 1: Computing the Implied Market Value of Assets and Asset Volatility 305

6.4.2 Step 2: Computing the Distance to Default 305

6.4.3 Step 3: Calculating the Default Probability Corresponding to the Distance to Default 306

7 Credit Rating Performance 307

7.1 Relevance: Ratings and Value 307

7.1.1 Structural Relevance: Rating and Credit Spreads 310

7.1.2 Impact Relevance: Rating Actions and Security Price Changes 325

7.1.3 Evaluation: How Relevant are Fundamental Credit Ratings? 331

7.2 Preventing Surprise in Defaults: Rating Accuracy and Stability 332

7.2.1 Metrics of Accuracy and Stability 334

7.2.2 Analysis of the Prevention of Surprise in Defaults 353

7.2.3 Summary, Evaluation and Conclusion 356

7.3 Efficiency Enhancement: Stabilization in Times of Crisis? 356

7.3.1 The Asian Macroeconomic Financial Crisis 356

7.3.2 The Western Microeconomic Equity Crisis 363

7.3.3 The Subprime Mortgage Related Crisis 364

7.3.4 Criticisms: the Ratings in Crisis? 369

Part C The Credit Rating Business 373

8 The Credit Rating Industry 375

8.1 The Rise of the Credit Rating Agencies 375

8.1.1 Origins 375

8.1.2 Macroeconomic Forces Shaping the Current Industry 378

8.1.3 The Current Structure of the Industry 384

8.2 Industry Specifics and How They Affect Competition 407

8.2.1 Agencies Compete for the Market rather than in the Market 407

8.2.2 The Business Model and Profit Drivers 411

8.2.3 Some Dynamic Aspects of Competition among CRAs: A Small Number of Players can be Consistent with Intense Rivalry 418

8.3 Industry Performance 419

8.3.1 Performance for CRA Shareholders 419

8.3.2 Performance of Ratings as a Public Good 420

8.3.3 Performance for Issuers 427

8.3.4 Performance for Investors 427

8.4 Conclusion 428

9 Regulatory Oversight of the Credit Rating Industry 429

9.1 The Regulatory Uses of Ratings 430

9.1.1 Prudence 435

9.1.2 Market Access 436

9.1.3 Investor Protection 439

9.2 The Regulation of the Industry 440

9.2.1 The Regulatory Options 440

9.2.2 Worldwide Regulatory Initiative: the 2004 IOSCO Code of Conduct 443

9.2.3 The 2005 European Union Policy on Credit Rating Agencies 444

9.2.4 The US 'Credit Rating Agency Reform Act of 2006' 448

9.3 Analysis and Evaluation 455

9.3.1 The EU and the US Approaches Compared 455

9.3.2 The Positions of the Main Stakeholders 461

9.3.3 Comments and Evaluation on Regulatory Options 466

10 Summary and Conclusions 469

10.1 The Challenges Facing Rating Agencies Today 469

10.1.1 From Regulatory Legitimacy to Market Legitimacy 469

10.1.2 Financial Innovation 472

10.1.3 Growth and Globalization 473

10.2 Conclusion 473.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages [475]-494) and index.

ISBN:

9780470018002

0470018003

OCLC:

212431225