Dynamics of conflict / Ronald A. Francisco.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Francisco, Ronald A.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Social conflict--Mathematical models.

Social conflict.

Civil war--Case studies.

Civil war.

Genre:

Case studies.

Physical Description:

x, 90 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm

Place of Publication:

New York ; London : Springer, 2009.

Summary:

The mechanisms of protest and revolution have been the subject of theoretical research for over a century, yet the lack of data has hindered the empirical validation of conflicting theories. In this book, the author presents a unique new set of sub-daily data from over thirty countries and seven civil wars and uses them to test two models of conflict, the predator-prey model and the competing species model. The dynamic nature of the data modeling and the novelty of the dataset make this work a unique contribution to the field of conflict research. Dynamics of Conflict will help to re-evaluate existing theories and charts a new course towards the formal and statistical modeling of conflict.

Contents:

1 Introduction to the Problem Set 1

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 A Summary of Objectives 3

1.3 Model and Equilibrium Estimation 4

1.4 Model of Choice I: Lotka-Volterra 5

1.5 Model of Choice II: The Competing Species Model 6

1.6 Model Identification 7

1.7 Dynamic Estimation 7

1.8 Mathematical Outcomes Arising in Estimation 8

1.9 Institutional Theory 9

1.10 The Dynamics of Conflict 10

Bibliography 10

2 The Dynamic Relationship Between Protest and Repression in Democratic Countries 13

2.1 Introduction 13

2.2 Salient Differences Among Formal Theorists 14

2.3 Assumptions 14

2.4 Cases 14

2.5 The Relationship Between Protest and Repression in Differing Contexts 15

2.5.1 When Does Protest Generate Repression? 15

2.5.2 When Do Protest and Repression Interactively Accelerate Each Other? 15

2.5.3 What Happens When Repression Is Absent? 16

2.6 Analytic Results in Democratic Countries 16

2.7 Survey of the West European Democracies and Illinois 27

2.8 Discussion 30

Bibliography 31

3 The Dynamics of Protest and Repression in Dictatorships and Democratic Transitions 33

3.1 Introduction 33

3.2 Cases and the Context of Dictatorship 34

3.2.1 Mobilization Under Dictatorship and Harsh Repression 34

3.2.2 What Happens to Repression When Mobilization Grows to a High Magnitude? 35

3.3 Empirical Results on Dictatorship Periods 36

3.4 Empirical Results from Transition Periods 43

3.5 Conclusion 48

Bibliography 49

4 Varied Dynamics of Bandwagon Mobilization 51

4.1 Introduction 51

4.2 Cases 52

4.3 Results 53

4.4 Discussion 62

Bibliography 64

5 Dynamics and Stability in Civil Wars 65

5.1 Introduction 65

5.2 The Cases 67

5.3 The Data 69

5.4 Models 70

5.5 Results 71

5.6 Discussion 76

Bibliography 78

6 Conclusion: Stability in Conflict 81

6.1 Stability is the Norm 81

6.2 Varieties of Repression in Democracies and Dictatorships 82

6.3 Convergence in Estimations 84

6.4 Correction of Time-Series Pathologies 84

6.5 When Repression is Absent or Rare 84

6.6 What Have We Learned? 85

Bibliography 85.

ISBN:

9780387752419

0387752412

OCLC:

233934134