Quantifying and controlling catastrophic risks / B. John Garrick ; contributors, Robert F. Christie ... [and others].

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Garrick, B. John.

Contributor:

Christie, Robert F.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Emergency management.

Disasters--Risk assessment.

Disasters.

Risk assessment.

Physical Description:

xxii, 351 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm

Place of Publication:

Amsterdam ; Boston : Academic Press/Elsevier, [2008]

Contents:

1 Societal Risks in Need of Understanding and Action 1

1.1 The Target Risks 1

1.2 The Quantitative Definition of Risk 5

1.3 The Process of Quantitative Risk Assessment 6

1.4 The Meaning of Quantification 8

1.5 Form of the Results of a Quantitative Risk Assessment 12

2 Analytical Foundations of Quantitative Risk Assessment 17

2.1 Quantitative Definition of Risk 18

2.2 The Scenario Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment 19

2.3 Interpretation of Probability and Likelihood 20

2.4 Quantification of the Scenarios 22

2.5 Assembling the Results 28

3 Case Study 1: Risk of a Catastrophic Hurricane in New Orleans, LA 33

3.1 Summary of the Risk Assessment of a Catastrophic Hurricane Impacting New Orleans, LA 36

3.2 Risk Assessment (Based on Data from 1900 to 2004) 39

3.3 Commentary on the New Orleans Hurricane Risk 64

3.4 Risk Assessment (Based on Data from 1900 to 1950) 65

4 Case Study 2: Risk of Asteroids Impacting the Earth 77

4.1 Summary of the Fatality Risk of an Asteroid Impacting the 48 States 82

4.2 Risk Assessment 84

4.3 Future Action 102

4.4 The Risk from an Asteroid Impacting New Orleans 102

5 Case Study 3: Terrorist Attack on the National Electrical Grid 111

5.1 Summary of Insights from the Scoping Analysis 113

5.2 A Scoping Analysis to Support a Quantitative Risk Assessment of a Specific Terrorist Attack 114

6 Case Study 4: Abrupt Climate Change 179

6.1 Summary of Insights from the Scoping Analysis 181

6.2 Scoping Analysis to Support a Quantitative Risk Assessment of Abrupt Climate Change 182

6.3 Illustration of Bayesian Analyses for Warming Rates 198

7 Examples of Risks Having the Potential for Catastrophic Consequences 203

7.1 Nuclear War 205

7.2 Super Volcanoes 208

7.3 Destruction of the Ozone Layer 210

7.4 Global Water Management 211

7.5 Pollution from Fossil Fuels 212

7.6 Infectious Disease Pandemic 214

7.7 Species Destruction: Tropical Rainforests 216

7.8 Species Destruction: Coral Reefs 217

7.9 Giant Tsunamis 218

7.10 Genetic Engineering and Synthetic Biology 220

7.11 Global Warming 223

7.12 Super Earthquakes 224

7.13 Industrial Accidents 225

7.14 Nanotechnology 228

7.15 Population Management 229

8 The Rational Management of Catastrophic Risks 231

8.1 Benefits of Quantitative Risk Assessment 232

8.2 The Role of the Case Studies 232

8.3 Comparing Quantitative Risks Using the Case Studies 233

8.4 Observations from the Case Studies 236

8.5 Insights from Comparing Risks 238

Appendix A Roots of Quantitative Risk Assessment with an Example 243

A.1 Calculating Likelihoods 243

A.2 Structuring the Scenarios 245

A.3 Steps That Have Evolved for Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment 249

A.4 Application to Nuclear Power: A Success Story 250

A.5 An Example of Nuclear Power Plant Quantitative Risk Assessment Results 256

Appendix B Supporting Evidence for the Case Study of the Hurricane Risk in New Orleans, LA 271

B.1 Hurricane Risk Assessment for the Period 1900-2004 271

B.2 Hurricane Risk Assessment for the Period 1900-1950 292

Appendix C Supporting Evidence for the Case Study on Asteroid Risk 305

C.1 Asteroid Risk Assessment for the 48 Contiguous States of the United States of America 305

C.2 Asteroid Risk Assessment for Metropolitan New Orleans, LA 336.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and indexes.

ISBN:

9780123746016

0123746019

OCLC:

229031531