Behavioral modeling and simulation : from individuals to societies / Committee on Organizational Modeling: From Individuals to Societies ; Greg L. Zacharias, Jean MacMillan, and Susan B. Van Hemel, editors ; Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education.

Format:

Book

Government document

Contributor:

Zacharias, Greg.

MacMillan, Jean.

Van Hemel, Susan B.

National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Organizational Modeling: From Individuals to Societies.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Psychology, Military.

Sociology, Military.

Human behavior--Simulation methods.

Human behavior.

Organizational behavior--Simulation methods.

Organizational behavior.

Physical Description:

xviii, 403 pages : illustrations, maps ; 23 cm

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : National Academies Press, [2008]

Summary:

Understanding and predicting group behavior has long been a goal of both researchers and governments. That goal has taken on increased urgency in today's complex world, in which governments have to deal both domestically and internationally with many cultures, as well as with cross-national terrorist groups.

What do we really know about group behavior? What are the next steps that can be taken to increase our knowledge?

Behavioral Modeling and Simulation describes and assesses research efforts now under way to answer those questions, using fundamental behavioral and social science knowledge and evolving modeling methods. It provides recommendations for conducting the needed research and bringing disparate disciplines together. It offers advice on how the U.S. government can best support the development and practical use of this research, both to understand our adversaries and to design and deploy effective organizations to deal with them.

Contents:

Recommendations 4

Integrated Cross-Disciplinary Research Programs 5

Independent Research Thrusts 5

Thrust 1 Theory Development 6

Thrust 2 Uncertainty, Dynamic Adaptability, and Rational Behavior 6

Thrust 3 Data Collection Methods 7

Thrust 4 Federated Models 7

Thrust 5 Validation and Usefulness 8

Thrust 6 Tools and Infrastructure for Model Building 9

Multidisciplinary Conferences and Workshops 9

Roadmap for Future Research and Development 10

Part I Background and Need for Organizational Models 11

Study Task and Objectives 14

National Academies' Response 15

The Committee's Approach 15

Defining the Project Scope 16

Gathering Data 16

Data Analysis and Review 16

Concepts and Definitions 16

Cautions for IOS Modeling 19

2 Military Missions and How IOS Models Can Help 23

Military Missions Now and into the Future 24

Overarching Strategy and Operational Enablers 24

Dimensions of the New Battlespace 26

The Impact of Urbanization 26

The Growing Importance of Pre- and Postconflict Operations 28

Changes in the Nature and Scale of Intervention Operations 30

How IOS Behavioral Models Can Help the Military 32

Potential Use of IOS Models for Analysis, Forecasting, and Planning 34

Models for Understanding, Forecasting, Shaping, and Responding to Adversary Behavior 36

Models for Understanding, Forecasting, and Shaping Societal Behavior 38

Models for Understanding Enemy Command and Control Structures 39

Models for Training and Mission Rehearsal 40

Models for Military Systems Development, Evaluation, and Acquisition 42

Models for Enabling Command and Control Weapons Systems 43

Representative Model-Addressable Problems in a Scenario Context 45

Overview of Current DoD IOS Modeling Efforts 48

The DMSO Master Plan for Modeling and Simulation 48

Selected Current DoD Behavioral Modeling Efforts 51

OneSAF Family of Models and Simulations 52

Task Network Models and Tools 52

Cognitive and Cognitive-Affective Architectures and Models 53

Multiagent Systems 54

Massively Multiplayer Online Gaming 54

DIME/PMESII Models 55

Simulation Frameworks and Tools 58

Other Efforts 58

Major Challenges for Development of IOS Models for Military Applications 58

Interoperability Challenges 59

Data Collection and Validation Challenges 60

Part II State of the Art in Organizational Modeling

Categories of Models: Initial Empirical Results 91

Methodology 92

Results 92

Four-Part Organizing Framework for Models 94

Part II Guide 95

3 Verbal Conceptual and Cultural Models 97

Verbal Conceptual Models 97

What Are Verbal Conceptual Models? 97

State of the Art for Verbal Conceptual Models 99

Relevance to Modeling Requirements 100

Major Limitations 102

Verification and Validation Issues 103

Future Research and Development Requirements 103

Cultural Modeling 104

What Is Cultural Modeling? 104

What Is Culture? 105

State of the Art of Culture Models 105

Cultural Inventory Models 105

Dominant Trait Models 109

Semantic Models 113

Cultural Domain Analysis 115

Relevance to Modeling Requirements and Major Limitations 117

Data, Verification, and Validation Issues 118

Future Research and Development Needs 118

4 Macro-Level Formal Models 122

System Dynamics Models 122

What Is System Dynamics Modeling? 122

State of the Art in System Dynamics Modeling 129

Early History of System Dynamics 129

More Recent Applications of System Dynamics Modeling 130

Environments for System Dynamics Modeling 133

Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directions 133

Organizational Modeling 135

What Is Organizational Modeling? 135

State of the Art in Organizational Modeling 138

Organization Theory Models 138

Organizational Design Models 141

Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directions 143

5 Micro-Level Formal Models 149

Cognitive Architectures 149

What Are Cognitive Architectures? 150

State of the Art 153

ACT-R 155

Soar 155

Epic 156

Cognet 157

Omar 157

Midas 157

Apex 158

Other Architectures 158

Current Trends 159

Verification and Validation Issues 159

Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directions 162

Relevance 162

Major Limitations 164

Future Directions 166

Affective Models and Cognitive-Affective Architectures 167

What Are Cognitive-Affective Architectures? 168

Applications and Benefits of Cognitive-Affective Architectures 171

State of the Art 174

Models of Cognitive Appraisal 175

Models of Emotion Effects on Cognition and Cognitive-Affective Interactions 178

Cognitive-Affective Architectures 180

Relevance to Modeling Requirements 181

Major Limitations 182

Verification and Validation Issues 182

Future Research and Development Requirements 184

Expert Systems 184

What Is an Expert System? 185

State of the Art 188

Expert System Shells and Development Environments 189

Automatic Knowledge Acquisition and Learning 189

Hybrid and Embedded Systems 190

Representing and Reasoning Under Uncertainty 190

Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directions 190

Relevance 190

Major Limitations 191

Future Research and Development Requirements 193

Decision Theory and Game Theory 193

What Are Decision Theory Models? 195

What Are Game Theory Models? 199

Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directions 202

Relevance 202

Major Limitations 205

Future Research and Development Requirements 205

6 Meso-Level Formal Models 215

Voting and Social Decision Models 215

What Are Voting Models? 216

State of the Art in Social Decision Modeling 216

Preference Theory 216

Social Choice Theory 217

Strategic Voting 219

Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directions for Social Decision Models 220

Social Network Models 221

What Are Social Network Models? 222

State of the Art in Social Network Models 223

Nodes and Ties 223

Multimode Networks 224

Cohesion Models 225

Centrality Models 225

Equivalence Models 226

Cohesive Subgroup Models 227

Network Evolution 228

Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directions 229

Link Analysis 231

What Is Link Analysis? 231

State of the Art 232

Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directions 234

Agent-Based Modeling of Social Systems 236

What Is Agent-Based Modeling? 237

State of the Art 238

ABM Structural Properties 240

Number of Agents and Cognitive Sophistication 241

Social Sophistication 242

Agents in Grids 242

ABM and Learning 243

ABM and Social Networks 244

ABM Development Issues 245

Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directions 246

Major Limitations 247

Degree of Realism 247

Model Trade-Offs 248

Modeling of Actions 249

Research and Development Requirements 249

Tool Development 249

Forecasting and Possibility Analysis 251

Data Farming 253

Cross-Disciplinary Initiatives 254

Building Expertise 255

Expected Outcomes 256

7 Games 261

What Are Massively Multiplayer Online Games? 261

State of the Art 264

Games as an Interaction Medium 264

Games as a Set of Engaging and Immersive Models 264

Games as an Interactive Laboratory 265

Relevance, Limitations, and Future Directions 266

Games as an Interaction Medium 266

Games as a Set of Engaging and Immersive Models 267

Games as an Interactive Laboratory 268

8 Common Challenges in IOS Modeling 271

Integration and Interoperability 271

Model Interoperability: Incompatibilities and Functionality Gaps 272

Interface Incompatibility 272

Ontological Incompatibility 274

Formalism Incompatibility 274

Subdomain Gaps 275

Recommendations for Resolving Gaps in Model Interoperability 278

Dealing with Interface Incompatibility 278

Dealing with I-O Format Incompatibilities 278

Dealing with Logical Incompatibilities 280

Dealing with Model Persistence Format Incompatibilities 280

Dealing with Ontological

Incompatibility 280

Dealing with Formalism Incompatibility 282

Subdomain Gaps 284

Frameworks and Toolkits 284

General Issues and Requirements 284

IDE Development Goals and Examples 291

Human and System Modeling and Analysis Toolkit 292

Modeling Terrorist Network Evolution 295

Modeling Iraqi Recruiting Activity 297

Advanced Analysis Capabilities 298

Verification, Validation, and Accreditation 301

General Issues: Validation for Use 301

Validation for Understanding and Exploration 304

Validation for Action 305

Military Approaches to Verification, Validation, and Accreditation 313

Validation Issues Specific to Individual Modeling Approaches 317

Validation of Conceptual Models 317

Validation of Cultural Models 318

Validation of Cognitive Models 318

Validation of Cognitive-Affective Architectures 319

Validation of Agent-Based Models 319

Recommendations for Developing and Validating IOS Models 320

Check with Multiple Experts 320

Keep the Model as Simple as Possible for Its Purpose 321

Examine "What Might Be" as Well as "What Is" 321

Use Model Touching for Validation 322

Data Issues and Challenges 324

9 State of the Art With Respect to Military Needs 329

Disrupt Terrorist Networks 329

Forecast Adversary Response to Courses of Action 331

Societal Forecasting 332

Crowd Control Training 333

Organizational Design: Force Composition and Command and Control Architecture 334

Part III Addressing Unmet Modeling Needs 337

10 Pitfalls, Lessons Learned, and Future Needs 339

Pitfalls in Matching the Model to the Real World 340

Model-Problem Mismatch 340

All-Purpose Models That Ultimately Serve No Purpose 341

Verification, Validation, and Accreditation 343

Problems in Designing the Internal Structure of a Model 345

Pitfall of Unvalidated Universal Laws 345

One-Dimensional Models 346

Kitchen Sink Models 347

Pitfalls in Dealing with Uncertainty and Adaptation 348

Unrealistic Expectations 348

Illusions of Permanence 349

Problems in Combining Components and Federating Models 350

Moving from Individual to Collective Action 350

Using Collective Attributes to Predict Individual Action 351

Assemblage of Parts 352

Summary of Future Needs 354

11 Recommendations for Military-Sponsored Modeling Research 356

Integrated Cross-Disciplinary Research Programs 357

Independent Research Thrusts 358

Thrust 1 Theory Development 358

Thrust 2 Uncertainty, Dynamic Adaptability, and Rational Behavior 359

Thrust 3 Data Collection Methods 360

Thrust 4 Federated Models 361

Thrust 5 Validation and Usefulness 362

Thrust 6 Tools and Infrastructure for Model Building 362

Multidisciplinary Conferences and Workshops 364

Roadmap for Recommended Research 365

B Exemplary Scenario and Vignettes to Illustrate Potential Model Uses 381

C Candidate DIME/PMESII Modeling Paradigms 389

D Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff 397.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN:

9780309118620

030911862X

9780309118637

0309118638

OCLC:

223867796