The secrets of economic indicators : hidden clues to future economic trends and investment opportunities / Bernard Baumohl.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Baumohl, Bernard.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic forecasting.

Economic indicators.

Business forecasting.

Physical Description:

xxiv, 401 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm

Edition:

Second edition.

Place of Publication:

Upper Saddle River, N.J. : Wharton School Pub., [2008]

Summary:

In plain English, renowned economic journalist Baumohl helps readers find the numbers, understand their deepest meanings, and use that knowledge to make fast, smart investment decisions. He covers both U.S. indicators and the foreign indicators that are becoming increasingly important to investors.

Contents:

Chapter 1 The Lock-Up 1

U.S. Economic Indicators 6

International Economic Indicators 14

Chapter 2 A Beginner's Guide: Understanding the Lingo 17

Annual Rates 17

Business Cycle 18

Consensus Surveys 19

Moving Average 20

Nominal Dollars Versus Real Dollars (Also Known as Current Dollars Versus Constant Dollars) 20

Revisions and Benchmarks 21

Seasonal Adjustments 22

Chapter 3 The Most Influential U.S. Economic Indicators 25

Employment

Employment Situation 25

Weekly Claims for Unemployment Insurance 40

Help-Wanted Advertising Index 44

Corporate Layoff Announcements 47

Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS) 50

ADP National Employment Report 55

Consumer Spending and Confidence

Personal Income and Spending 63

Retail Sales 74

E-Commerce Retail Sales 79

Weekly Chain-Store Sales 82

Consumer Credit Outstanding 87

Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) 92

Survey of Consumer Sentiment (University of Michigan) 97

ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index 100

UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism 104

National Output and Inventories

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 107

Durable Goods Orders 124

Factory Orders 131

Business Inventories 138

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 145

Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Survey 156

Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey 163

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (Business Barometer) 166

Housing and Construction

Housing Starts and Building Permits 178

Existing Home Sales 184

New Home Sales 191

Housing Market Index: National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) 196

Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey and the National Delinquency Survey 200

Construction Spending 205

The Federal Reserve

Regional Federal Reserve Bank Reports 208

Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Empire State Manufacturing Survey 209

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Business Outlook Survey 215

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: Manufacturing Survey of the 10th District 219

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond: Manufacturing Activity for the Fifth District 223

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: National Activity Index (CFNAI) 226

The Federal Reserve Board's Beige Book 229

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement 233

Foreign Trade

International Trade in Goods and Services 240

Current Account Balance (Summary of International Transactions) 254

Treasury International Capital (TIC) System 262

Prices, Productivity, and Wages

Consumer Price Index (CPI) 271

Producer Price Index (PPI) 283

Employment Cost Index 290

Import and Export Prices 296

Productivity and Costs 303

Employer Costs for Employee Compensation 311

Real Earnings 315

Yield Curve 318

Chapter 4 International Economic Indicators: Why Are They So Important? 325

German Industrial Production 328

German IFO Business Survey 330

German Consumer Price Index (CPI) 332

Japan's Tankan Survey 336

Japan Industrial Production 342

Eurozone: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) 347

Global: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index 347

OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) 354

China Industrial Production 357

India: GDP and Wholesale Price Index 362

Brazil Industrial Production 368

Chapter 5 Best Web Sites for U.S. Economic Indicators 373

Schedule of Releases 373

Economic News 373

The U.S. Economy 373

Consumer Behavior 374

Employment Conditions 375

Home Sales and Construction Activity 376

International Trade 376

Inflation Pressures 377

Federal Reserve Reports 377

The Federal Budget 378

Interest Rates 378

Money and Credit 378

U.S. Dollar 379

One-Stop Shopping for Economic Statistics 379

Other Useful Economic Sources on the Web 379

Unconventional Economic Indicators 380

Chapter 6 Best Web Sites for International Economic Indicators 381

Calendar of Releases for Foreign Economic Data 381

Sources of Global Economic News 381

Economic Statistics from Other Countries 381

Best Megasites for International Economic Statistics 386.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

0132447290

9780132447294

OCLC:

85018288