International migration in Europe : data, models and estimates / edited by James Raymer and Frans Willekens.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Raymer, James, 1972-

Willekens, Frans.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Emigration and immigration.

Forecasting.

Statistics.

Mathematical models.

European Union countries--Emigration and immigration.

European Union countries.

European Union countries--Emigration and immigration--Statistical methods.

European Union countries--Emigration and immigration--Mathematical models.

European Union countries--Emigration and immigration--Forecasting--Statistical methods.

Bayesian statistical decision theory.

Physical Description:

xviii, 385 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm

Place of Publication:

Chichester, England ; Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, [2008]

Summary:

International migration has huge economic, social and political consequences and as a result there is growing demand for evidence-based policies. This has long been unfeasible due to inaccuracies in migration data, caused, for example, by different data sources employing different definitions and different collection methods. However, in recent years methods involving the use of models have been developed to derive reliable estimates of migration. International Migration in Europe draws together modern statistical approaches to provide a unified treatment of these methods, allowing a consistent and dependable set of migration flows to be developed.

The book: Uses European-based real data to demonstrate migration estimation and modelling tools, with worldwide applications. Explores the modelling techniques from both the frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. Discusses vital concepts in detail, such as missing data and collection methods. Includes chapters dedicated to the key areas of modelling asylum flows and migration forecasting. Is authored by the leading experts working in migration data and models. Is supported by a supplementary website featuring further reading material. International Migration in Europe is primarily aimed at academics, undergraduate and graduate students in the fields of demography, statistics, geography, sociology, economics and political science. However, this is also an important book for government statisticians responsible for publishing migration data, as well as analysts working on migration-related topics such as planning and demography at all levels, from local to international.

Contents:

1.2.2 Frequentist and Bayesian approaches 5

Part I Data Issues 9

2 Counting foreign-born and expatriates in OECD countries: a new perspective / Jean-Christophe Dumont, Georges Lemaitre 11

2.2 A new database on immigrant populations 14

2.3 Immigrant populations in OECD countries 15

2.3.1 The foreign and foreign-born populations 15

2.3.2 The geographic origin of immigrants 18

2.3.3 The educational attainment of immigrant populations 21

2.4 Expatriates of OECD member countries residing in other member countries 23

2.4.1 The extent of expatriation in OECD countries 23

2.4.2 The educational attainment of expatriates 29

2.5 Highly skilled expatriates from non-member countries in OECD countries 34

2.5.2 Results 35

3 Comparability of statistics on international migration flows in the European Union / Dorota Kupiszewska, Beata Nowok 41

3.2 Empirical observations 42

3.2.1 Double entry matrices 42

3.2.2 Evolution of migration flows over time 48

3.3 Data sources and definitions 53

3.3.1 Primary data sources 54

3.4 Secondary data sources and data availability 62

4 Evolution of international migration statistics in selected Central European countries / Beata Nowok 73

4.2 Data sources and availability of statistics on international migration flows 74

4.3 Definition of international migration in official flow statistics 76

4.4 Trends in international migration flows 80

4.5 Impact of migration definition on recorded volume of international migration flows 82

5 Foreign migrants in Southern European countries: evaluation of recent data / Alessio Cangiano 89

5.2 Overview of statistical sources 90

5.2.1 Italy 90

5.2.2 Spain 92

5.2.3 Portugal 93

5.2.4 Greece 94

5.3 The evolution of foreign populations 95

5.3.1 Italy 95

5.3.2 Spain 97

5.3.3 Portugal 98

5.3.4 Greece 100

5.4 Regularisation programmes 103

5.5 Estimates of irregular migrants in Italy, Spain and Greece 106

5.5.1 Italy 107

5.5.2 Spain 108

5.5.3 Greece 110

Part II Models 115

6 Models of migration: observations and judgements / Frans Willekens 117

6.2 Data types and data structure 119

6.3 Probability models: generalities 123

6.4 Probability models of migration 126

6.4.1 State probabilities 127

6.4.2 Transition probabilities 128

6.4.3 Transition rates 129

6.4.4 From transition probabilities to transition rates 136

6.5 Incomplete data 137

6.5.1 Adding statistical data 137

6.5.2 Adding judgemental data 141

7 Bayesian estimation of migration flows / Matthew J. Brierley, Jonathan J. Forster, John W. McDonald, Peter W. F. Smith 149

7.1.1 Using log-linear models to explain migration flows 150

7.1.2 Quasi-independence 150

7.1.3 A brief overview of Raymer's approach 151

7.2 A modelling framework 152

7.2.1 The initial model 153

7.2.2 The model 154

7.2.3 Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques 154

7.2.4 The updating equations 155

7.2.5 Generating the proposals 156

7.3 Results of the initial simulation 157

7.4 Adding noise to the observations 159

7.4.1 Generating observations with [sigma] = 0.03 159

7.4.2 The priors for [sigma][superscript 2] and [tau][superscript 2] 161

7.5 Introducing a contiguity parameter 163

7.5.1 Introducing some noise into the reported values 163

7.5.2 Where some of the y[subscript ij] are assumed known 165

7.6 Northern European migration 165

7.6.1 Overview of Raymer's estimation strategy 166

7.6.2 Using the reported immigration data to generate estimates from the Bayesian model 167

7.6.3 Assumptions about the error of the reported values 170

7.6.4 Altering the Lithuanian margins 171

7.6.5 Assessing the model performance 172

8 Applying model migration schedules to represent age-specific migration flows / James Raymer, Andrei Rogers 175

8.2 Conceptual framework: regularities in the age patterns of migration 177

8.2.1 Explaining the regularities 177

8.2.2 Describing the regularities: interstate migration in the US West, 1985-1990 179

8.3 Fitting multi-exponential model schedules to age patterns of migration 181

8.4 Modelling families of age-specific migration 183

9 Models for migration age schedules: a Bayesian perspective with an application to flows between Scotland and England / Peter Congdon 193

9.2 Parametric vs dynamic general linear model approaches 194

9.3 Pooling strength over different schedules 196

9.4 Case study: Scotland to England migration, 1990-1991 197

9.5 Multivariate (multiple schedule) model estimates 201

Part III Current Estimates 207

10 Obtaining an overall picture of population movement in the European Union / James Raymer 209

10.2 Migration data 210

10.2.1 Data typologies 210

10.2.2 Missing and inadequate data 212

10.2.3 The data collected for this study 212

10.3 Modelling approach 217

10.3.1 Multiplicative component model 217

10.3.2 Log-linear model 219

10.3.3 Applying the multiplicative component and log-linear models to estimate international migration flows in Europe 220

10.4 Estimation 222

10.4.1 Immigration and emigration totals 222

10.4.2 International migration flows 225

10.4.3 Age-specific flows 227

11 A simple method for inferring substitution and generation from gross flows: asylum seekers in Europe / Leo van Wissen, Roel Jennissen 235

11.2 Asylum applications in European countries, 1985-2002 236

11.3 A method for measuring generation and substitution 237

11.4 Generation and substitution in twelve European countries 243

11.5 Substitution and asylum policies 246

Part IV Forecasting 253

12 Bayesian methods in international migration forecasting / Jakub Bijak 255

12.2 Uncertainty and subjectivity in migration forecasting and in Bayesian statistics 256

12.2.1 Uncertainty and subjectivity in migration forecasting 256

12.2.2 Bayesian statistics: introductory notes 258

12.3 Overview of forecasting methods for international migration 260

12.3.2 Mathematical models of population flows 261

12.3.3 Econometric forecasts of international migration 262

12.3.4 Stochastic forecasts of migration time series 264

12.3.5 Bayesian models and forecasts of population flows 266

12.4 Examples of simple Bayesian models for forecasting international migration 267

12.4.1 Data, specification and estimation of the models 267

12.4.2 Forecasts of international migration between Poland and Germany, 2004-2010 270

13 Forecasting international migration: time series projections vs argument-based forecasts / Joop de Beer 283

13.2 Extrapolations 285

13.3 Explanations 290

13.4 Types of immigration 292

13.4.1 Labour migration 292

13.4.2 Family-related migration 294

13.4.3 Asylum seekers 295

13.5 Types of emigration 298

13.5.1 Foreigners 298

13.5.2 Nationals 300

13.6 Assumptions on future changes in immigration and emigration 302

13.7 Uncertainty 304

Part V Demographic Consequences 307

14 International migration component in population dynamics models / Marek Kupiszewski, Dorota Kupiszewska 309

14.2 The increasing importance of international migration in population dynamics and population modelling 310

14.3 A review of multinational population projections and forecasts in Europe 311

14.4 The international migration component in national and multinational population dynamics models 313

14.4.1 The incorporation of international migration into population dynamics models 314

14.4.2 Subnational allocation of international migrants 316

14.4.3 Issues concerning international migration data 317

14.5 MULTIPOLES: a model with a multilevel treatment of international migration 319

14.5.1 General description and comparison with earlier models 319

14.5.2 An outline of MULTIPOLES structure, data requirements and applications 320

15 What happens when international migrants settle? Projections of ethnic groups in United Kingdom regions / Philip

Rees 329

15.1.1 Migrant and ethnic classifications 329

15.1.2 Ethnic groups 330

15.1.3 The topic and its importance 330

15.1.4 Aims of the chapter 331

15.2 Issues and approaches to the projection of ethnic group populations 332

15.2.1 Trends in international migration 332

15.2.2 From international immigrants to settled UK residents 334

15.2.3 Population projection models: key features and choices 334

15.2.4 Critical issues for projecting ethnic group populations 337

15.3 A projection model for ethnic groups at region scale 338

15.3.1 Choices of projection models 338

15.3.2 The projection model 339

15.4 Estimation of projection inputs 340

15.4.1 Ethnic groups 340

15.4.2 Estimation of single-year ethnic group populations 340

15.4.3 Estimation of single-year survival probabilities 342

15.4.4 Estimation of age-specific fertility rates for ethnic groups 342

15.4.5 Migration variables 342

15.4.6 International migration datasets and trends 343

15.4.7 The 2001 Census of population: migration data for ethnic groups 344

15.4.8 Estimation of internal migration and immigration by ethnicity 344

15.5 Projection assumptions 345

15.6 Projection results, 2010 and 2020 347

15.6.1 How much is each group projected to change from 2001 to 2020? 347

15.6.2 How do these results vary across regions of the UK? 349

15.7 Comparisons, evaluations and adjustments 351

15.8 Lessons and further research 352

15.8.1 Areas where there is agreement 352

15.8.2 Areas where there is disagreement 354

15.8.3 Areas that need further study 354

16.1 Early concerns 359

16.2 More recent concerns 361

16.3 This book's contributions 365.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

9780470032336

0470032332

OCLC:

181079182

Online:

Publisher description

Contributor biographical information