Advances in decision analysis : from foundations to applications / edited by Ward Edwards, Ralph F. Miles, Jr., Detlof von Winterfeldt.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Edwards, Ward, 1927-2005.

Miles, Ralph F., 1933-

Von Winterfeldt, Detlof.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Decision making.

Physical Description:

xv, 623 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm

Place of Publication:

Cambridge ; New York : Cambridge University Press, 2007.

Summary:

Decision analysis consists of a prescriptive theory and associated models and tools that aid individuals or groups confronted with complex decision problems in a wide variety of contexts. Decision analysis can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering, public policy, and business. This book extends traditional textbook knowledge of decision analysis to today's state of the art. Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses structuring decision problems, including the development of objectives and their attributes, and influence diagrams. Part III provides an overview of the elicitation and aggregation of probabilities and advances in model building with influence diagrams and belief networks. Part IV discusses utility and risk preferences, practical value models, and extensions of the subjective expected utility model. Part V consists of an overview of advances in risk analysis. Part VI puts decision analysis in a behavioral and organizational context. Part VII presents a selection of major applications.

Contents:

Part I History and Foundations of Decision Analysis

2 The Emergence of Decision Analysis / Ralph F. Miles, Jr. 13

3 The Foundations of Decision Analysis Revisited / Ronald A. Howard 32

4 Decision Analysis: A Personal Account of How It Got Started and Evolved / Howard Raiffa 57

5 Reflections on the Contributions of Ward Edwards to Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research / Lawrence D. Phillips, Detlof von Winterfeldt 71

Part II Structuring Decision Problems

6 Defining a Decision Analytic Structure / Detlof von Winterfeldt, Ward Edwards 81

7 Developing Objectives and Attributes / Ralph L. Keeney 104

Part III Probabilities and Bayes Nets

8 Eliciting Probabilities from Experts / Stephen C. Hora 129

9 Aggregating Probability Distributions / Robert T. Clemen, Robert L. Winkler 154

10 Model Building with Belief Networks and Influence Diagrams / Ross D. Shachter 177

11 A Bayesian Approach to Learning Causal Networks / David Heckerman 202

Part IV Utilities

12 Utility and Risk Preferences / David E. Bell 221

13 Practical Value Models / Ralph L. Keeney, Detlof von Winterfeldt 232

14 Extensions of the Subjective Expected Utility Model / Robert F. Nau 253

Part V Risk Analysis

15 Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Engineered Systems / Vicki M. Bier, Louis Anthony Cox, Jr. 279

16 The Engineering Risk-Analysis Method and Some Applications / M. Elisabeth Pate-Cornell 302

17 Health Risk Analysis for Risk-Management Decision-Making / Louis Anthony Cox, Jr. 325

Part VI Decision Analysis in a Behavioral and Organizational Context

18 What Have We Learned from Our Mistakes? / Barbara Mellers, Connson Locke 351

19 Decision Conferencing / Lawrence D. Phillips 375

20 Resource Allocation Decisions / Don N. Kleinmuntz 400

21 From Decision Analysis to the Decision Organization / David Matheson, James E. Matheson 419

22 Building Decision Competency in Organizations / Carl S. Spetzler 451

23 Negotiation Analysis: Between Decisions and Games / James K. Sebenius 469

Part VII Applications of Decision Analysis

24 The Adoption of Multiattribute Utility Theory for the Evaluation of Plutonium Disposition Options in the United States and Russia / John C. Butler, Alexander N. Chebeskov, James S. Dyer, Thomas A. Edmunds, Jianmin Jia, Vladimir I. Oussanov 489

25 Choosing a Tritium Supply Technology for Nuclear Weapons: Reflections on a Controversial Decision Analysis / Detlof von Winterfeldt 514

26 Applications of Decision Analysis to the Military Systems Acquisition Process / Dennis M. Buede, Terry A. Bresnick 539

27 Balancing Environmental and Operational Objectives in Nuclear Refueling Strategies / Phillip C. Beccue, Jeffrey S. Stonebraker 564

28 Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications / Donald L. Keefer, Craig W. Kirkwood, James L. Corner 582.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

0521863686

9780521863681

0521682304

9780521682305

OCLC:

70877901

Online:

Publisher description